Sunday, May 22, 2022

2022 Federal Election Late Night Live

ALP WIN - MAJORITY TOUCH AND GO

SEATS APPARENTLY WON LABOR 72 COALITION 52 IND 10 GRN 3 KAP 1 CA 1 IN DOUBT 11

Seats apparently changing (not all completely confirmed):

COALTION TO LABOR: Reid, Robertson, Chisholm, Higgins, Boothby, Pearce, Swan, Hasluck, Tangney

COALITION TO GREENS: Ryan

COALITION TO GREENS OR LABOR: Brisbane

COALITION TO INDEPENDENTS: Wentworth, Mackellar, North Sydney, Curtin (in minor doubt), Goldstein, Kooyong

LABOR TO GREENS: Griffith

LABOR TO INDEPENDENT: Fowler


In significant doubt (list may be incomplete):

LABOR AT RISK TO COALITION: Lyons, Gilmore, Lingiari (likely Labor)

COALITION AT RISK TO LABOR: Bennelong, Deakin, Menzies, Moore, Bass (likely Liberal), Sturt (likely Liberal)

COALITION AT RISK TO IND: Cowper

LABOR AT RISK TO GREENS: Macnamara (probable Labor)

(Richmond assumed Labor retain)

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Good evening and welcome to my late-night coverage of an incredible 2022 federal election night.  The Coalition primary vote has crashed but the Labor primary vote is also down slightly. There is a massive non-major vote, of the sort I disparaged when it appeared in the final Resolve poll, but that poll is looking rather good right now (though we judge polling when all the votes are in).  The House of Reps will be infested with crossbenchers and Australian politics will never be the same again.  As I write Labor is on the cusp of gaining or not gaining a majority, with nine apparent gains, two apparent losses to the crossbench, and a number of unclear seats.  Labor will be easily able to govern in minority at worst, but what sort of Senate they have to deal with will take a lot of sorting out.  As I write it looks like they are tracking for a crucial third seat in Western Australia, which together with apparent victories for Tammy Tyrell and David Pocock should make their life manageable. 

A few comments from me before I switch over to postcount mode after the counts tonight are finished. 

Comments scroll to top.

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12:30 Labor has hit the front in Deakin, so that would be a very nice gain if they got it.

12:48 In the Senate, the Coalition is holding up well in NSW and may be able to win three there.  In Victoria there is a mess still with neither major clear of two quotas and a possible right-micro win, though maybe a major (perhaps Labor) will move into a better position.  In Queensland, Pauline Hanson is drifting back towards Legalise Cannabis but I would expect her to be fine even if slightly behind after preferences.  WA is tracking for 3 Labor.  In SA Labor might improve to the point of getting three, but at the moment there is a contest with One Nation and the Coalition.  Tasmania is 2-2-1-1 and David Pocock seems to have beaten Zed Seselja.  

The 2019 Senators are 17 Coalition 11 Labor 6 Green 1 One Nation 1 JLN.  The Coalition appears to be winning 14, Labor 15. Greens 6, One Nation 1, Pocock 1 and JLN 1 with the SA and Vic seats the most unclear.   So that would be 31 Coalition, 26 Labor ,12 Green, 2 One Nation, 2 JLN , and Pocock. At worst a blocking majority for Labor and the Greens, and a passing majority with Pocock, JLN or One Nation.  Any further left gain could improve things more.

1:18 There seems to be a general move to Labor in projections as prepolls come in.  Sturt is closing up, with Labor ahead on current counting but projected to fall behind.

2:21 On polling - it is way too soon to measure who was the most accurate but as votes have piled up it looks like polls have generally done very well.  Anyone saying the polls are wrong has no idea - the right side won, and the 2PP and vote shares are landing very much in the middle of them at the moment.

2:30 Note that on the ABC site some seats including Dickson and Casey have moved into "in doubt" - this is just because the ABC has switched off the projection.

Closing this live coverage now - will resume in the morning with postcount threads.  Messiest first.  (The messiest is Richmond.)


8 comments:

  1. Well it got off to an anxious start for me but things aren't looking all too bad now! :) Any idea how badly I've screwed up my attempt at tactical voting in Vic senate? I tried to cut a few corners and fill as few boxes as possible. I'm left leaning and was hoping to influence the 6th seat, but I've left out the Legalise Cannabis Party who amazingly have 0.239 quota right now... I've got Greens #2, Labor #3, DHJP #1 plus a bunch of smaller left-wing parties in there. Labor #3 looks like they should have a good hope of getting in front of Legalise Cannabis for the left bloc votes with 0.18 quota currently.

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  2. I would probably chuck Bradfield in doubt as well, its in the same boat as Cowper where there isnt a 2CP count at the margins are theoretically loseable for Libs

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  3. maybe Wannon as well is theoretically in doubt as well with liberal primary below 45%, but I think Alex Dyson has a primary vote too low to catch up.

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  4. Using the probability estimates on PollBludger (after manually adjusting the 3 cornered contests that didn't make sense) gives likely totals of ALP 78, L/NP 58, Crossbench 15. I reckon this will shift more to Labor when the postals start to get counted.

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  5. Hey Kevin I had a look at the postal samples for all the in doubt seats. An interesting anomaly is that Brian Mitchell (Lyons Labor) is outperforming on postals c/- his on the day 2PP on a pretty big sample. In all the other ALP vs Coalition contests ALP is going back on postals (where there is a sample).

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    1. That is interesting. Might be to do with social media controversies not becoming widely known til later in the campaign. Thanks.

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    2. No problems. If you look at the 2019 results it went more as expected i.e. prepolls better than ordinary which were better than postals. Quite weird. Makes me wonder if they got the votes around the wrong way.

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    3. So I thought I'd run a health check on the Lyons count like I did for Deakin and Bennelong earlier today. The postals were completely fine but I found something else.

      https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-summary-page-and.html

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