ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS
LYONS (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN)
ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS
CLARK (2024 Result 2 Liberal 2 Labor 2 Green 1 IND)
BRADDON (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 IND)
On this page
Bean - Expected ALP retain (very close)
Fremantle - Expected ALP retain
Franklin - Called by me as easy ALP win on election night but included because some people are being silly
Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page
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This page covers seats where Labor is leading the primary count, the AEC initially counted votes as ALP vs Liberal, but an independent has either clearly or probably made the final two and the count is now being realigned by the AEC. The main two seats of interest here, Bean and Fremantle, have common ingredients in that an independent seemed to be very competitive on the night and still looks close in the realignment, but past experience suggests the independents may struggle as the postcount continues.
MONASH (Vic, Lib 2.9%, occupied by deselected ex-Lib IND)
Issue was whether Deb Leonard (IND) could make final two and whether she could win if so. Leonard will not make final two. Liberal retain.
Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page.
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I like to do posts about postcount seats that are not necessarily the most competitve but the weirdest, and in this respect Monash well deserves a thread of its own, though Calwell is giving it a run for its money.
In Monash the Liberals disendorsed 25-year veteran Russell Broadbent, who immediately moved to the crossbench and eventually ran as an independent. Broadbent had attracted attention particularly as a prominent member of the anti-COVID-vaccines/mandates movement but another factor was simply the desire for renewal. The campaign saw some tension over One Nation how to vote cards - I haven't got to the bottom of the story but have heard claims that the Liberals printed a card on One Nation's behalf that turned out not to reflect One Nation's preferencing decisions (because they continued to recommend preferences to Broadbent in this seat).
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Donations welcome!This post will follow the postcount in Macnamara, which under its old name of Melbourne Ports delivered the most exciting postcount of the 2016 election, with a two-way contest between Labor and the Greens to make the final two and the Liberals also a chance to unseat Michael Danby. Six years later the Liberals have totally cooked their chances in the seat after picking two dud candidates in a row, and Josh Burns has replaced the more controversial Danby and appears popular and to be set for life. Or is he?
Brisbane (LNP 4.9% vs ALP)
LNP has lost, Stephen Bates (Greens) vs Madonna Jarrett (Labor) for seat
Bates and Jarrett very close for second on primaries. Whichever of Bates and Jarrett makes the final two after preferences wins.
Greens will win seat.
This post will follow the postcount in the division of Brisbane, where Trevor Evans has been defeated and we are waiting to find out which of Stephen Bates (Greens) and Madonna Jarrett (Labor) takes the seat.
Current primaries are:
RICHMOND (NSW) (ALP 4.1%)
Justine Elliot (ALP) vs Mandy Nolan (GRN) based on candidate exclusion order
(2019 3CP NAT 41.7 ALP 34.7 GRN 23.6)
Labor is second on primaries and needs to stay ahead of Nationals or overtake Greens (after preferences) to make top three.
Large Liberal Democrat primary may cause Nationals to make final two.
Elliot expected to move into lead on prepolls and retain.
(Elliot has claimed victory - awaiting confirmation of result.)
Expected final result LABOR 27 LIBERAL 16 IND 4
On this page: Waite (assumed Labor win vs Holmes-Ross (IND), exclusion order issues.)
On this page: Finniss (Liberal expected to defeat IND, either by exclusion order or on 2CP. )
On this page: Hammond (assumed Liberal win)
On this page: Flinders (assumed Liberal win)
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General update 30/3: All seats have been determined now with the result at 27-16-4. As Hammond is now showing as a 2PP I am assuming it as well as Waite finished as 2PP contests while Finniss and Flinders did not, but I am awaiting confirmation of that.
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Welcome to my SA 2022 post-counting coverage. The result of the election was a win to Labor with about as many seats as polling-based seat models predicted, but the downside for the Liberals in terms of losses to independents appears to be on the high side. As well as the expected wins by Dan Cregan in Kavel (a massive win) and Fraser Ellis in Narungga, they have lost to Geoff Brock in Stuart. That leaves two seats that are the subject of this thread - Finniss (where they may lose to a new independent) and Waite, where the ex-Liberal independent Sam Duluk seems to be doomed but it's not at all clear that the Liberals will get the seat back. This is the thread for messy, interesting post-counts, and I also have one up for the vanilla postcounts and the Legislative Council (which currently seems to be tracking towards 5 Labor, 4 Liberal, 1 Green and a battle between One Nation and the reborn Family First for the final seat (or maybe LDP but they have form for dying on preferences.))
(Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)
LYONS (2018 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)
SEAT RESULT 3 Liberal 2 Labor (called)
CALLED ELECTED: Rebecca White (Labor), Guy Barnett (Liberal), Mark Shelton (Liberal), Jen Butler (Labor), John Tucker (Liberal)
Lyons is as dead as it gets as a party level contest with the Liberals on more or less exactly 3 quotas, Labor on more or less exactly 2 and the Greens on just over half, and the rest is mostly Shooters.
Rebecca White has topped the poll with 1.4 quotas. Guy Barnett is also over quota and Mark Shelton is on .72 quotas and will win, though it will take a while.
(Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)
BRADDON (2018 result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)
SEAT RESULT 3 Liberal 2 Labor
CALLED ELECTED: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP)
WITHIN PARTY CONTEST (Liberal): Adam Brooks extremely likely to win, Roger Jaensch vs Felix Ellis for third Liberal seat. Expecting formal confirmation soon that Brooks and Jaensch have won. (UPDATE: confirmed)
In Braddon there is nearly 84% counted. The Liberals have 3.42 quotas, Labor has 1.6, the Greens 0.32, the Shooters 0.23 and Craig Garland has 0.37 (6%) and has beaten the Greens again! Jeremy Rockliff has topped the poll, of course, and currently has 1.74 quotas.
