2018 Tasmania Postcount: Bass

Bass 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 undecided
Re-Elected: Gutwein (Lib), Ferguson (Lib), Courtney (Lib), M O'Byrne (Labor)
Contest Between Parties: Dawkins (Green) vs Houston (ALP)
Houston has won

Warning: The Bass contest is mathematically complex.  This article is rated at Wonk Factor 4/5.

Welcome to the first of my post-counting threads from the Tasmanian state election, which will follow the post-count in the seat of Bass. These articles will be edited and updated as the counts progress.

Bass is the (doubtless expensive) jewel in the crown of the Liberals' blowout win tonight - they are currently running at a 1.7% swing to them in Bass, an amazing result.  With 85.7% counted, the Liberals have 3.53 quotas, Labor have 1.59, the Greens have 0.54 and the Jacqui Lambie Network have 0.28.  There's also 550 votes (0.05 quotas) for anti-Green independent Brett Lucas.  Labor's notional lead on primaries over the Greens is 455 votes.

2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2018 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)

Bass (Currently 3 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green). 
North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston
Mixed urban/small-town/rural

Declared Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.

What Happens In Kim Booth's Recount?

(NB added May 26: The recount will take place on June 9.)

Tasmanian Greens leader Kim Booth suddenly announced his resignation from parliament on Wednesday. This decision follows the very recent death of Booth's father, but with family time and party regeneration cited as motivating factors.  (Some have suggested he was jumping before he was pushed as leader, but if so he did well at acting happy about having decided to go.) As with Christine Milne there are now many effusive tributes to Booth's career flowing, as well as trolling from the odd party-pooper, and a few joyful if slightly unhinged celebrations of the party's (supposed) impending demise.

Booth's headkicking style has contributed many memorable moments to Tasmanian politics, most notably the "shredder" affair in which he brandished a reconstructed shredded document in Parliament shortly after its existence was denied, removing a Deputy Premier.  His bad-boy purist-rebel image was such that Greens' advertising at the last election showed Booth (who was often at risk of losing his seat) grinning with the slogan "There's only one thing worse than having Kim Booth in Parliament, and that's not having Kim Booth in Parliament".  And now, we'll find out just what that is like.  I suspect there will be many of my readers who greatly admire his contribution, and others who cannot stand him and will be pleased to see him go. For my own part, I've enjoyed the few times I've talked with Booth in person during his 13-year career in state politics.

Unlike with Milne, at the moment I don't have the time to write a long analysis of Booth's tenure as leader, and there's not that much to say anyway.  Booth is the first Tasmanian Greens leader not to actually take the party to a state election - they only contested one Upper House seat and local councils on his watch - and their popularity seems to have stayed at about the level of the 2014 state election, or maybe recovered very slightly.  (More on this from EMRS very soon).