Showing posts with label gender polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gender polling. Show all posts

Monday, July 24, 2023

Voice Referendum Polling: No Leads / Indigenous Support Levels

TWO-ANSWER TREND ESTIMATE YES 47.8 (-2.8 in four weeks)

Aggregated polls have Yes losing in five states and trailing the national average in three (two narrowly)

(Above estimates may be updated if new polls are added in next few weeks)

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Greetings.  I was going to call this article "Welcome to No" but thought of some wrong ways that that could be taken.

Four weeks ago my last Voice update still had Yes very slightly ahead but the lead was not long for this world.  Unsurprisingly in this edition Yes is still going downhill rapidly and is now clearly behind in my aggregated estimate.  The most recently added polls are Newspoll with a 46-54 result and Resolve with 48-52 (and an even worse 36-42-22 prior to the forced-choice question).  

Sunday, March 20, 2022

Old Rope: A New Low In The Australian's Newspoll Commentary

With a quietish day in the South Australian count so far, I just thought I'd take the time to call out an article about Newspoll that was published yesterday in The Weekend Australian.  

The article was entitled "PM wins back women's support" and appeared on page 6 of the Weekend Australian.  It commenced with the following claim:

"Scott Morrison has recovered lost ground with women voters in recent months and has built up a larger lead over Anthony Albanese on the question of preferred prime minister among women than men, despite an onslaught of criticism on various gender ­issues."

Other claims included in the article were:

"Although the Prime Minister lost his lead over the Labor leader in Monday’s fortnightly Newspoll, Mr Morrison consistently outranks the Opposition Leader on satisfaction ratings among women voters, an analysis of quarterly demographic breakdowns reveals."

From this I expected that the Australian was releasing a fresh quarterly breakdown for the January-March period.  But no cigar (there might yet be another poll to come this month and be included in the breakdown anyway).  Here's some more:

"But Newspoll surveys show that, at the end of last year, Mr Morrison had a lower dissatisfaction rate among women than men and the same net satisfaction rate – the difference between voters’ satisfaction and dissatisfaction – among men and women."

"But, on the question of who would be the better prime minister, Mr Morrison has had a bigger lead among women since late 2020 and has always had a better net satisfaction rating among females."

(I take it that the word "he" has been omitted before "has always"  Otherwise it makes no sense as a better net satisfaction rating is not relevant to who is the "better prime minister".)