2019 Federal Election Postcount: Mallee

MALLEE (Nat vs ALP - 19.8%)

Webster (Nat) has won after the seat remained a Nats vs ALP seat by 386 votes.  It is unknown and will perhaps never be known what would have been the Nat-Lib result had Labor been eliminated in third.  (I expect Webster would still have won, but am awaiting the preference distribution.)
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In the election leadup I had my eyes on the Victorian seat of Mallee as the most likely to deliver an absolute mess in the postcount.  On election night it seemed to be a bit of a fizzer because none of the independents made 10% in their own right, making it clear that the Coalition was headed for victory.  However the Mallee count has thrown up some interesting complications, and there is a theory doing the rounds that the Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich might be able to defeat Webster if he can make the final two.  I am unconvinced about this theory, firstly because I'm doubting he will make the final two, and secondly because even if he does a rather strong preference flow is needed to get him over the line. I don't think that will happen, Labor HTV card notwithstanding, but in the meantime there's a possibility Mallee will create electoral history.  Never (thanks to Malcolm Baalman for this) has a candidate who finished fourth or worse on primaries in a federal seat reached the final two, and it is possible that this could yet happen.