Coalition would win election "held now" with much reduced majority
The downwards trend I've been tracking in the Coalition's aggregated federal polling has continued. It's not so much the case that the polls keep getting worse, but more that it was longer since they got a really good one. In the last two weeks Essential (which has leant to Labor on the whole since Turnbull became PM) has put out a couple of 50:50s, and Newspoll (which in its new incarnation has also leant to Labor, though not by much) has followed up its shock 50:50 from a fortnight ago with more of the same. Morgan had a very slight improvement for the government, up to 53:47 by last-election preferences, but this may be more evidence that its house effect is hanging around than anything in the government's favour. Anyway with all these included my aggregate now falls to 51.0% to Coalition - more or less exactly where it was in the immediate aftermath of last September's removal of Tony Abbott. Here's the smoothed tracking graph:
There's increasing talk of a July 2 double dissolution, which would mean the election is now less than four months away. Normally, if you offered a new first-term government a 51:49 poll lead four months out from an election it would take that in a shot, since governments of any age in such a position have a very high historic chance of re-election. Again though, it's the pace at which the Coalition has shed support that would be causing a lot of concern. Some of what has happened in polling this year is the natural coming down from any leadership transition bounce, but that far from guarantees that that process is even finished.
