Total of projected individual seat breakdowns for this poll Lib 13 ALP 10 Green 7 IND 4 Nat 1
One of the many remarkable elections in Tasmania was in 1986. On the surface Robin Gray's first and only re-election sounds exremely dull; the Liberal Party won 19 seats just as it had in 1982, and Labor won 14, ditto. Yet that election was a bloodbath with 15 incumbent MPs losing their seats, 13 in effect to their own party. This sort of violence became less common in the 25-seat system, an especially tame case being 2006 when all 23 recontesting incumbents were returned. (The only interesting thing about that was that nobody much thought it would occur). Based on the recent Pulse Media DemosAU poll we could be heading for a milder case of this with at least six incumbents at serious risk of losing to their ticketmates but few clear signs of either major party gaining or losing more than the odd seat anywhere.
I have a copy of the full results of this poll [EDIT: which have now been posted publicly]. The full poll includes candidate breakdowns by electorate, which I have not seen since EMRS did it a few decades back. While the writeup below is very detailed a reminder this is just one poll, and in the next few days I intend to produce my usual cross-poll aggregate.
