Queensland: ALP 52 LNP 34 KAP 3 GREEN 2 PHON 1 IND 1
2PP Estimate 53.13% to Labor (+1.9% from 2017)
Another Queensland election is over. In 2017 I wrote that the 2017 election had been "one where a great many dramatic things could have happened, but virtually none of them did", and in some ways this one has been similar. Nonetheless, the Queensland election has again thrown up more than its fair share of electoral curiosities.
Historic patterns
This election yet again showed that state and federal politics are fundamentally different and that projecting state elections from federal elections (just because it's easy) is false consciousness. The 2PP result was over eleven points different from the 2019 federal election in Queensland.
In the leadup to the election I was curious about whether not being in government federally should provide an ongoing boost to the Palaszczuk Government so I wrote this. Based on the age of this Queensland government and the fact that Labor is in opposition federally, the average expected result was a net gain of 2.5 seats. The actual result, after two very close seat wins and one close loss, was a four-seat gain, so very close to the historic expectation. The government was helped, perhaps decisively, by the pro-incumbency mood during COVID-19, but had also had some wear and tear during the term. By election day the government was polling very well in terms of personal approvals of Annastacia Palaszczuk and which party was best to handle the economy, and it seems these polls were telling us something the voting intention polls were not.
