The final results of the Queensland election are out. Three years after being reduced to something that could fit in a Tarago, the ALP has won office in minority by what may just be a single seat. (Katter's Australian Party spent so long milking press cover over their agonising decision on who to support that in the end government was formed without waiting for their decision.) In one amazing echo, Peter Wellington gives Labor the numbers exactly as he did for a few months seventeen years ago. In another, Antony Green estimates the 2PP at 50.9 to Labor, so virtually the same as 2009. It is much as if 2012 just never happened.
There are two competing baseline 2PPs for the 2012 election, one of 62.8% to LNP and one of 63.1% to LNP, mainly depending on how you treat Gladstone. On the latter the swing comes out at about 14%, on the former slightly less. There may be slight revisions to the 2PP estimate for this election too, but in any case the swing was not much short of 14%, if at all.
In fact, the LNP were a trifle lucky to get as close to hanging on in seat terms as they did. If the numbers are plugged into the ABC calculator (and crossbench defector/retiree seats assigned as they fell), it suggests 48-38-3 to Labor. My own seat model, taking personal vote effects and probabilities into account, suggests 45-41-3 to Labor for that 2PP. The LNP managed one more mainly because they had more very narrow seat wins.
Showing posts with label Ashgrove. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ashgrove. Show all posts
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Queensland Election Night Comments
Seats Apparently Won: LNP 39 ALP 42 OTHER 3
2 likely ALP: Mt Ommaney, Ferny Grove
Unclear LNP vs ALP: Mansfield, Whitsunday
Unclear ALP vs IND: Maryborough
Outcome: ALP government highly likely, unclear whether in majority. LNP minority government possible but currently looks unlikely.
10:55 Labor's real-count leads in Mt Ommaney and Ferny Grove are both at 1.1% now. Those will be hard to close down even with the size of post-count and the LNP needs at least one of them if not both.
10:35 On last-election preferences the current primaries would pan out to about a 50.5% 2PP for the LNP which would probably just have been enough to retain office (especially with likely pickup on postals.) If Labor wins outright then it will likely be because the LNP has been a tad unlucky with the split of close seats as well. A lot will be asked about why all the late polls were all 52:48, though that is not a particularly bad miss and well within each's margin of error. It seems there's been a late swing to Labor as undecided voters made up their minds, though this factor is normally no friend of the ALP or oppositions generally.
2 likely ALP: Mt Ommaney, Ferny Grove
Unclear LNP vs ALP: Mansfield, Whitsunday
Unclear ALP vs IND: Maryborough
Outcome: ALP government highly likely, unclear whether in majority. LNP minority government possible but currently looks unlikely.
10:55 Labor's real-count leads in Mt Ommaney and Ferny Grove are both at 1.1% now. Those will be hard to close down even with the size of post-count and the LNP needs at least one of them if not both.
10:35 On last-election preferences the current primaries would pan out to about a 50.5% 2PP for the LNP which would probably just have been enough to retain office (especially with likely pickup on postals.) If Labor wins outright then it will likely be because the LNP has been a tad unlucky with the split of close seats as well. A lot will be asked about why all the late polls were all 52:48, though that is not a particularly bad miss and well within each's margin of error. It seems there's been a late swing to Labor as undecided voters made up their minds, though this factor is normally no friend of the ALP or oppositions generally.
Queensland: Election Day Comments
Greetings from Corinna! I don't have much time or much internet but it looks like I will be online tonight, but without access to any TV coverage.
All three polls overnight (ReachTEL, Newspoll and Galaxy) came out with a 52:48 2PP to the LNP so any polling aggregator is likely to have the LNP at something around that. Mine has finished on 52.1% off primaries of 41.4% LNP, 37.1% ALP, 6.9% Green, 4.5% PUP, 9.7% Other. The important thing is not that 2PP figure but how you model it, and my projected seat tally has barely moved since the first polls after the campaign started showed slight LNP leads. Out of the 82 major-party-held seats it expects the government to win the 2PP contest in about 48 and Labor in about 34. Considering the crossbench seats Labor have good chances of two gains, while the LNP have probably as much risk as potential for gain. (They might pick up Condamine and perhaps Gaven but are likely to lose Maryborough and at risk in a few others). So I'm expecting something about 48 LNP, 36 Labor and five others.
All three polls overnight (ReachTEL, Newspoll and Galaxy) came out with a 52:48 2PP to the LNP so any polling aggregator is likely to have the LNP at something around that. Mine has finished on 52.1% off primaries of 41.4% LNP, 37.1% ALP, 6.9% Green, 4.5% PUP, 9.7% Other. The important thing is not that 2PP figure but how you model it, and my projected seat tally has barely moved since the first polls after the campaign started showed slight LNP leads. Out of the 82 major-party-held seats it expects the government to win the 2PP contest in about 48 and Labor in about 34. Considering the crossbench seats Labor have good chances of two gains, while the LNP have probably as much risk as potential for gain. (They might pick up Condamine and perhaps Gaven but are likely to lose Maryborough and at risk in a few others). So I'm expecting something about 48 LNP, 36 Labor and five others.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Queensland: Ashgrove, Redcliffe, And Other Snippets
This post just rounds up a number of issues in modelling the Queensland election. There have been no fresh state polls since my previous post and I still think it's most likely the LNP will retain office with a narrow to moderate (but greatly reduced) majority. I could have added these as updates to the roundup from the weekend or saved them for next time, but thought they'd work quite well as an article by themselves to stop the last one or the next one being too long.
ReachTEL Poll Of Ashgrove
(Scroll down for Newspoll update Jan 17)
The first seat poll of the campaign has been released and there are no prizes for guessing which seat it covers. A ReachTEL with a slightly larger sample size than last week's state Newspoll and Galaxy offers the candidates in ballot order and finds Campbell Newman effectively up 2.4 points in just over a month (after redistributing "undecided" from last time), and Kate Jones effectively down one point, with the other significant change being the disappearance of the Palmer United Party's three points (they're not running). The 2PP is 53:47 to Jones and voters are almost exactly split as to who they think will win the seat.
This apparent improvement for Newman isn't a massive surprise given the apparent statewide improvement in LNP polling. 47% 2PP is a slightly better figure than would be expected at this stage, but not by enough to rule out statistical noise. However, it's also possible that Newman is starting to punch above his weight (based on the expected swing statewide) or that this reflects a shift in state voting intention since last week's polls were taken.
ReachTEL Poll Of Ashgrove
(Scroll down for Newspoll update Jan 17)
The first seat poll of the campaign has been released and there are no prizes for guessing which seat it covers. A ReachTEL with a slightly larger sample size than last week's state Newspoll and Galaxy offers the candidates in ballot order and finds Campbell Newman effectively up 2.4 points in just over a month (after redistributing "undecided" from last time), and Kate Jones effectively down one point, with the other significant change being the disappearance of the Palmer United Party's three points (they're not running). The 2PP is 53:47 to Jones and voters are almost exactly split as to who they think will win the seat.
This apparent improvement for Newman isn't a massive surprise given the apparent statewide improvement in LNP polling. 47% 2PP is a slightly better figure than would be expected at this stage, but not by enough to rule out statistical noise. However, it's also possible that Newman is starting to punch above his weight (based on the expected swing statewide) or that this reflects a shift in state voting intention since last week's polls were taken.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Recent Polling In Four States
NOTE re Vic polling (28 Oct): Three new Vic polls have appeared in recent days: a 52-48 to Labor from Galaxy, 53-47 from ReachTEL, 52.5-47.5 (with a much too high Green vote) from Morgan SMS. However Fairfax Ipsos and apparently Newspoll are in the field so we may as well collect the full set. I am busy with Hobart Council for a few days but will have detailed coverage of Victoria shortly.
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This could be a dull week in federal polling, but fortunately new state polling has been released in four states. The last article on polling from states other than Tasmania was Recent Victorian and Queensland Polling, over a month ago. This one will cover what has come out since, and updates will be added for anything else that surfaces in the next few weeks. Beyond that we will be getting seriously close to the Victorian election and polls should become more common.
Immediately after this article was written a Morgan poll including data from all states was released. Comments about it appear at the bottom.
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This could be a dull week in federal polling, but fortunately new state polling has been released in four states. The last article on polling from states other than Tasmania was Recent Victorian and Queensland Polling, over a month ago. This one will cover what has come out since, and updates will be added for anything else that surfaces in the next few weeks. Beyond that we will be getting seriously close to the Victorian election and polls should become more common.
Immediately after this article was written a Morgan poll including data from all states was released. Comments about it appear at the bottom.
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