Election Alert Time As Rockliff Demands Tighter Deal From Defectors

Updates scrolling to top

Tuesday 13/2 Updates

All going well here, Alexander has launched a massive spray at the government accusing it of being like an "abusive partner" and referring to the departures of other female MPs.  While the departures of Sarah Courtney, Jacquie Petrusma, Elise Archer and yes Alexander are all capable of being explained without reference to gender it's not helpful for the Liberals that they have ended up with only 1 woman out of 11 in the Lower House - small sample size is a hard concept to make fly in politics.

2:00 The Liberal Party meeting is still on but journalists are reporting that March 23 appears to be on.

Sunday 11/2 Updates

The Premier is now stating he is "actively considering requesting the Governor for an early election" on the grounds of the independents having not accepted his terms, and also citing "trust issues".  Monday is a public holiday (Regatta Day), on which an election call is possible but seems unlikely.  On Tuesday there is a Liberal party room meeting, the time of which I don't have yet.  If it is early in the day, a call on Tuesday afternoon would not be surprising, assuming the independents have not capitulated in the meantime (which seems unlikely).  

The Governor's Role In The 2021 Tasmanian Election

The 2021 Tasmanian election campaign (link to main guide) has seen various claims about the role of the Governor Kate Warner, both in calling the election and in resolving the aftermath should the election produce a hung parliament.  Not only are these claims incorrect, but some of them (concerning the calling of the election) are both unfair to the soon-to-retire Governor Warner and by implication anti-democratic.  

Calling the election

The first set of claims that have circulated concerns the Governor's role in calling the election.  The claims being made fall into two groups:

1. That the Governor may have made a mistake in accepting Premier Gutwein's advice to dissolve the Parliament and hold an election.

2. That the Governor made the correct decision, but that she must have relied on false or misleading advice from the Premier in so doing, and would otherwise have not called the election.

I first saw claims of type 1 in an April 2 op ed by Charles Wooley  (paywalled, and need to scroll down).  It's far from being the only thing I disagree with in that article:

Tasmania 2018: What Happens If No Party Wins A Majority?

UPDATE 28 Jan: Parts of this article relating to Labor are now out of date with ABC TV News tonight clearly showing Labor leader Rebecca White saying that Labor will not govern in minority.   See update at bottom of article.

UPDATE 31 Jan: And I missed it at the time but Will Hodgman also on the first day of the campaign said "We will govern in majority or not at all [..]"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Advance Summary 

1. Despite widespread reports to the contrary, neither major party appears to have given an explicit commitment that they will not govern in minority should no party win a majority at this year's Tasmanian state election.

2.  The leaders have only given various, often ambiguous, commitments that they will only govern "alone" or that they will not govern via deals with, or with the support of, minor parties.

3. A widespread belief that if there is no agreement between parties the Liberals would be forced to keep governing appears to follow instead from a direction from Governor Underwood to Premier Bartlett to form a government in 2010.

4. In theory, a government in such a position could instead resign, but this seems unlikely in practice.

5. In the absence of at least a tacit arrangement between parties, the most likely outcome of a hung parliament would be the Liberal Party continuing in minority unless/until the government was defeated on the floor of the House.

6. For this reason, a parliament without any party holding a majority might (if all parties stuck to their pre-election commitments but no party gave any new ones) be unusually unstable.