DemosAU Liberal 28 Labor 21 One Nation 21 Greens 14 IND 12 SF+F 2 Others 2
Seat estimate if these vote shares were recorded in election "held now" Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4 IND 4
After a previous state poll which did not explicitly include One Nation, DemosAU have now included them in their Tasmanian state polling for the first time. The party, which has been advertised for state registration, debuts on 21%, similar to the 19% it recorded in the May EMRS. But if we add the Liberal and One Nation votes in the EMRS poll, we get 44%. In the DemosAU poll, it is 49.
This raises a thought experiment. Yes, we know One Nation is trashing the Liberal vote everywhere and that they would win seats from the Liberals in Tasmania right now. But what if, by taking votes from Labor and increasing the overall right vote, they ended up taking a fourth seat for the right in Bass (where the right nearly won four last time anyway), a third seat for the right in Franklin (ditto) and - though this I think would be the hardest part - a third seat for the right in Clark? (That's on the current boundaries; if the proposed new boundaries are accepted I expect similar scenarios to emerge).
It's a very long way to the next election, or is it? After the historic censuring of Premier Rockliff, as prospective Senator Stansfield notes in the latest Poll Position pod, at some point there will be another scandal. And at that point Labor will have painted themselves into an even tighter corner than before. If they don't want to force another election that nobody wants and that now also floods the House with One Nation, they can either form a government nobody understands, or look comically impotent as they pass meaningless censure motions or do nothing.
