Aston By-Election 2023

ASTON (VIC, LIB 2.81%)  April 1 by-election

Liberal to be announced vs Mary Doyle (ALP) and others
Cause of by-election: Resignation of Alan Tudge

Outlook: On historical patterns Liberals should retain - but it may not be easy

Yesterday what looks like a quiet electoral year was enlivened just a little by the news that there will be a by-election for the Liberal seat of Aston following the resignation of Alan Tudge, MP since 2010 and Minister between 2016-2022.  Tudge was once a minor star of the Coalition government but his rise was tarnished from late 2020 onwards by an extramarital affair with staffer Rachelle Miller, who accused him of harassment and abuse.  Tudge denies the accusations, which led to a substantial payout.  In recent weeks Tudge has been under the spotlight for his actions surrounding the illegal, disgraceful and barbaric "robodebt" scheme as Social Services Minister in 2016-7.  Tudge has cited family and health reasons in his resignation, having flagged his intentions with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in early January after his father passed away. 

This thread will follow the by-election campaign though I will lose interest in it and stop updating the thread if Labor doesn't run and there is no other serious challenger.  [Update 17/2 Labor is running and has re-endorsed Mary Doyle.]

GetUp! National And Centrelink Poll Reporting Is A Trainwreck

GetUp! ReachTEL (undecided redistributed) Coalition 37.1 ALP 35 Green 9.8 PHON 10.6 
Published 2PP 54-46 to Labor
2PP by 2016 preferences 52.1 to Labor
Verdict: Go back to sleep

[Updated 24 Jan with fresh Essential polling on Centrelink issues]

My little eyes lit up when I saw in my Twitter stream that I had somehow missed the release of a national ReachTEL at about midnight last night.  There has not been a national ReachTEL since before the July election. Given the relative paucity of polling data since then, and the Centrelink and ministerial "entitlements" issues currently affecting the Turnbull Government, new data concerning where the government was standing could be quite interesting.

Unfortunately it turned out that this was not a new Seven or Fairfax ReachTEL, but rather one commissioned by the lobby group GetUp!  Moreover, the level of immediate publication of the poll's details has been abysmal.  Rather than it being promptly released with full details either on GetUp!'s website or the ReachTEL site, what seems to have happened is that it has been sent (in part or full, who knows) to a range of media agencies who have then presented us with a partially digested dog's breakfast of the findings.