"Labor Senator Murray Watt says Barnaby Joyce shouldn't be Acting PM. Who the hell is Murray Watt? Barnaby will be Acting PM next week. Murray should worry about acting as a real Senator. Like see actual constituents & be relevant. At the moment its Watt by name, who by nature."
George Christensen kicks off this year's Ehrlich Awards for Wrong Predictions with the above piece of banter dated 15 February. In fact, Barnaby Joyce took leave for the week following the comment, and was not Acting PM, and soon after stood down as Nationals leader and Deputy PM as well. This one sets the tone for a year in which a common theme was Coalition MPs or sympathisers expecting that pretty much anything would go right for their side of politics. I'd include more left-wing failed predictions for balance, but this year I just haven't seen that many. Feel free to add more examples I have missed in comments.
Showing posts with label Patten. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Patten. Show all posts
Saturday, January 5, 2019
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Victorian Upper House 2018: Button Press Day
Introduction
I've decided to bring the Victorian upper house count to the top with a new thread for the day on which all the buttons are pressed, and also for any possible recount news. My coverage of the count was here. The schedule is for buttons to be pressed for each division from 2:10 pm at ten minute intervals, in alphabetical order by region name. However, buttons are being pressed faster than scheduled. Declarations are scheduled for 6:00 but it is possible that some division will be close enough (either at the end or at a key exclusion point) for a recount to be requested, or that some other issue requiring a recount might be identified. In 2006 there were two recounts, one because of a 6,000 vote transcription error.
Provisional results will be posted as soon as they are available. I am now reviewing the preference distributions. There may be some delays in posting analysis (if the distributions are up by then!) as I will be out between 3:45-4:45 but will be online for some of that time.
For all the analysis on the above thread and elsewhere there are some seats that are going to the button in significant doubt. There are others where what is going to happen appears to be clear but it is possible that all the modelling thrown at these counts might still be wrong and something unexpected will happen. I should note that at this stage we only have party totals, and do not know if there might be an unusually significant below-the-line vote for any otherwise irrelevant candidate (though there is no reason to think that there is.)
I've decided to bring the Victorian upper house count to the top with a new thread for the day on which all the buttons are pressed, and also for any possible recount news. My coverage of the count was here. The schedule is for buttons to be pressed for each division from 2:10 pm at ten minute intervals, in alphabetical order by region name. However, buttons are being pressed faster than scheduled. Declarations are scheduled for 6:00 but it is possible that some division will be close enough (either at the end or at a key exclusion point) for a recount to be requested, or that some other issue requiring a recount might be identified. In 2006 there were two recounts, one because of a 6,000 vote transcription error.
Provisional results will be posted as soon as they are available. I am now reviewing the preference distributions. There may be some delays in posting analysis (if the distributions are up by then!) as I will be out between 3:45-4:45 but will be online for some of that time.
For all the analysis on the above thread and elsewhere there are some seats that are going to the button in significant doubt. There are others where what is going to happen appears to be clear but it is possible that all the modelling thrown at these counts might still be wrong and something unexpected will happen. I should note that at this stage we only have party totals, and do not know if there might be an unusually significant below-the-line vote for any otherwise irrelevant candidate (though there is no reason to think that there is.)
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