Average of final week polls ALP 37.1% Liberal 17.6 One Nation 23.3 Greens 11.2 others 10.8
If polls are accurate, Labor wins election easily making several seat gains, with Liberals and One Nation probably winning a few seats each. Independents could win a few to several seats.
The 2026 SA election has been a weird one for polls. There's been a very decent amount for a state election, but there were four polls tightly clustered around the start of the formal campaign, Morgan a little later, then nothing til the final days. Also while the early polls had quite a range of figures, the last-week polls by Fox&Hedgehog, YouGov and DemosAU came out with almost identical primaries. All have Labor on 37-38%, Liberals 17-19%, and One Nation 21-23%. Newspoll stood out a bit more with a 40 for Labor and a miserable 16 for the Liberals.
In my previous article I outlined a way of using the 2022 Legislative Council results to roughly look at where the Liberals and One Nation might make the final two if the polling is accurate, and assuming a swing that is two-thirds proportional and one-third uniform. I have a few more observations on this model based on the vote share average at the head of this post.
