MELBOURNE (Green 6.9% vs ALP)
Adam Bandt (Green) vs Sarah Witty (ALP)
Labor win after 2CP realignment
WARNING: Explaining what is going on with the Melbourne count is complex. This page is rated Wonk Factor 4/5
Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page.
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I am doing postcount threads in a capricious order as something provokes me to jump to a different seat next and en route to the fine mess that is Monash, the ambulance has been rerouted to Melbourne. This follows the ABC projecting the seat as 52-48 to Labor after projecting it as 51.5 to the Greens last night.
Why are we even here? For some reason the AEC preset the Melbourne count 2CP as Greens vs Liberal, a baffling decision when Labor beat the Liberals at the 3CP point by 8.6% in 2022 and when a Greens vs Liberal 2CP is about as informative concerning who will actually win the seat (even post-redistribution) as the 2CP between One Nation and Tim Smith. This is the single worst 2CP preset decision by the AEC that I have ever seen - generally I am a great fan of all the work done by the AEC but this one's an exception; this has let election watchers down and needs to not happen again.
As a result we had no useful election night preference estimate between the Greens and Labor in the Greens Leader's seat. We now do have a preference count for 3926 postals and 150 hospital votes, which shows a massive Labor lead, but the postals are unrepresentative.
