NSW Primary Aggregate (updated 27 Mar) Coalition 45.4 Labor 34.0 Green 10.7 Others 9.9
2PP By 2011 Preferences: 55.8% to Coalition
Estimated 2015 Preferences: 54.0% to Coalition
Seat Projection (estimate): Coalition 53 Labor 36 Green 1 Ind 3
It's time to kick off my rolling post for the last week of the NSW election, which will be updated an unknown number of times through the week. Before posting too much detail and getting into some of the finer modelling detail - I've posted provisional figures above, but these will be revised through the week - I want to get something up about the big picture of where the polling is at.
From their
position last week I thought there were three things Labor needed to do all of to still win the NSW election:
1. Reduce the primary vote gap to the Coalition compared to what polling was showing at that time.
2. Increase their preference flow from the Greens and minor parties compared to what polling was showing at that time.
3. Get lucky on the distribution of seat swings.
There is some evidence that 2 may be occurring. There is still some evidence that 3 is unusually likely. But as concerns 1, the four polls out in the last week don't provide cause for hope; indeed they suggest the gap is widening. No amount of preferencing or uneven seat swing magic will win it if the primary vote gap is too big. And so, based on current polls, Labor starts the final week in a losing position and needs a late swing back to have a realistic chance. The extent to which dramatic swings occur in most election campaigns is overstated and Labor's task if they want to win is very challenging now.
