Huon: polls close 6 pm
Rosevears: polls close 6 pm
NEPEAN (VIC): polls close 6 pm
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All numbers here are unofficial, check the TEC and VEC sites for official numbers
Refresh every 10 mins or so after 6:30 for latest updates
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Intro (Saturday 2 pm)
We're here again, it's counting night for two more Tasmanian Legislative Council seats with first-term incumbent Dean Harris (IND) facing Labor, Green and tealish IND challengers and fellow first-term incumbent Jo Palmer (Liberal) up against Labor and the Greens. You can see my seat previews here:
and also my assessment of Legislative Council voting patterns
I've had less time to cover the LegCo election campaigns than normal as I was overseas for two weeks in April. During this time I had very little spare time anyway but my ability to update the site was further affected by my laptop charger expiring in smoke and my phone charger being unreliable. However all is back to normal now.
As I note, a Labor opposition that normally votes with the government (hmmm) means that the government isn't often troubled on the floor of the chamber, but its proposed greyhound racing ban is one where it may need all the numbers it can get and won't be wanting to see any wins for the red team tonight. Nor would it be keen to see independent Dean Harriss replaced by an independent to his left in Clare Glade-Wright. Tonight will be an interesting test of how everyone's travelling, noting that Labor tends to do badly in these contests in the north and would do well by historic standards to get anywhere near winning Rosevears.
Also tonight is an interesting by-election in Victoria where the Liberals are trying to fend off One Nation and a teal in the seat vacated by former deputy leader Sam Groth, who won the seat impressively in 2022 and has been a problem magnet ever since. I'm not really sure whether it's better to run separate threads or cover them on the same thread; I've decided to do the latter to reduce the risk of me getting confused between threads, noting that the LegCo is my primary focus until it settles down. The Nepean contest has been marked by more Victorian Liberal chaos though the One Nation campaign has also run into some problems; see William Bowe's rundown.
I would expect first LegCo figures from around 6:30. Note that in Huon the first booths that arrive are often on Bruny Island and these are very green/anti-salmon booths that are highly unrepresentative. When I consider there is no realistic doubt about the fate of the LegCo seats the magic word CALLED will appear in the header. Until then it will contain a brief summary of how the count is going in each seat, which may at times be out of date.
Early in the night I'll be projecting party totals in Rosevears off the 2025 state election until numbers settle down. I have a range of projection ideas for Huon and I'll announce which ones I've managed to implement in time once the count gets underway. Note that we will not get postals tonight for the LegCo seats as Tasmania does not count postals til midweek. We should however get plenty of prepolls.
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