2PP Aggregate: 53.4 to ALP (+0.3 since last week)
ALP would easily win election "held now"
It's over a month now since Bronwyn Bishop resigned as Speaker, more or less ending an entitlements scandal that had provoked a polling blowout of about one and a half points against the Abbott Government. It might have been expected (and indeed I rather did expect) that this was a blip and that once all the shouting had died down the government's polling would improve. However this week's results show that it hasn't improved at all, and again we see bad, but not quite panic-station, results for the government continue to hang around. Ahead of the Canning by-election (which is covered on a separate rolling thread) this is not what the government wants to see.
A significant debacle for the government in the last fortnight was the Border Force press release which stated that Border Force intended to stop people more or less randomly for visa checks. This was apparently never the actual intention but social media outcry resulted in the intended joint operation with Victoria Police having to be cancelled. This epic stuffup can't have helped the government's latest attempts to repair its image.
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Showing posts with label TURC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TURC. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Poll Roundup: Behind Longer Than Howard
2PP Aggregate: 53.1 to ALP (-0.3 in a week)
Labor would comfortably win election held "right now"
Time for another federal polling roundup, with three polls out this week. This week Morgan (which leans to Labor) moved from 54.5% 2PP in Labor's favour by last-election preferences to 53.5, Newspoll stayed at 54 and Essential curiously moved to 51.
This was the first time Essential has had a reading other than 52 or 53 since a cluster of 54s in January through March. It's the first time it's made it down to 51 in one year and two weeks. The reason is that last week's half of the sample was very poor for Labor, most likely as a result of random sample noise. As a result of this, it's possible my aggregate is behind a few tenths of a point unkind to Labor at the moment; the picture should be clearer after next week's data.
After considering the primary votes and house effects I aggregated the Morgan at 52.7 to Labor, the Newspoll at 54.3 and Essential at 51.1. With two polls saying things are getting better for the Coalition versus one influential one saying they are getting slightly worse, the net impact of all this is a 0.3 point recovery for the government, but one that I would not read anything into yet. Here's the smoothed tracking graph:
Labor would comfortably win election held "right now"
Time for another federal polling roundup, with three polls out this week. This week Morgan (which leans to Labor) moved from 54.5% 2PP in Labor's favour by last-election preferences to 53.5, Newspoll stayed at 54 and Essential curiously moved to 51.
This was the first time Essential has had a reading other than 52 or 53 since a cluster of 54s in January through March. It's the first time it's made it down to 51 in one year and two weeks. The reason is that last week's half of the sample was very poor for Labor, most likely as a result of random sample noise. As a result of this, it's possible my aggregate is behind a few tenths of a point unkind to Labor at the moment; the picture should be clearer after next week's data.
After considering the primary votes and house effects I aggregated the Morgan at 52.7 to Labor, the Newspoll at 54.3 and Essential at 51.1. With two polls saying things are getting better for the Coalition versus one influential one saying they are getting slightly worse, the net impact of all this is a 0.3 point recovery for the government, but one that I would not read anything into yet. Here's the smoothed tracking graph:
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Poll Roundup: No Instant Damage After Shocking Week
2PP Aggregate: 53.4 to Labor (unchanged)
Labor would win election "held now" comfortably
Last week the Coalition had an extremely messy six-hour party room meeting on the issue of same-sex marriage. The meeting led to open infighting between Coalition MPs and a general perception of a shambles. The end result was a decision (by a roughly two-to-one vote of the joint partyroom) that the Coalition would not allow a "free vote" on a cross-party same-sex marriage bill introduced by Warren Entsch. (Backbenchers can still exercise a conscience vote, but any frontbencher who does can expect to join them there.)
At a Prime Ministerial press conference, Tony Abbott stated afterwards that it was his "strong disposition" that a plebiscite be held after the next election. Malcolm Turnbull has since said that the party room has not yet made a specific decision to adopt the plebiscite as policy, and suggested it be held before the next election. Scott Morrison has instead called for a referendum.
The week ended with the Coalition, still reeling from the dumping of Bronwyn Bishop, facing a fresh scandal over the neutrality or otherwise of Trade Unions Royal Commissioner Dyson Heydon, who accepted an invitation to speak at a Liberal Party event while serving in that role. Combined with Heydon's attack on Bill Shorten as a witness, there is a perception about that Heydon is too politically biased, or at least too readily seen to be biased, to continue in his role. The email trail has been dominating Question Time in the first days of this week.
Labor would win election "held now" comfortably
Last week the Coalition had an extremely messy six-hour party room meeting on the issue of same-sex marriage. The meeting led to open infighting between Coalition MPs and a general perception of a shambles. The end result was a decision (by a roughly two-to-one vote of the joint partyroom) that the Coalition would not allow a "free vote" on a cross-party same-sex marriage bill introduced by Warren Entsch. (Backbenchers can still exercise a conscience vote, but any frontbencher who does can expect to join them there.)
At a Prime Ministerial press conference, Tony Abbott stated afterwards that it was his "strong disposition" that a plebiscite be held after the next election. Malcolm Turnbull has since said that the party room has not yet made a specific decision to adopt the plebiscite as policy, and suggested it be held before the next election. Scott Morrison has instead called for a referendum.
The week ended with the Coalition, still reeling from the dumping of Bronwyn Bishop, facing a fresh scandal over the neutrality or otherwise of Trade Unions Royal Commissioner Dyson Heydon, who accepted an invitation to speak at a Liberal Party event while serving in that role. Combined with Heydon's attack on Bill Shorten as a witness, there is a perception about that Heydon is too politically biased, or at least too readily seen to be biased, to continue in his role. The email trail has been dominating Question Time in the first days of this week.
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