It's a fine pleasure to be writing a preview for the Victorian Legislative Council that is not like this. It's also great not to need to write this. Yes it would be nice if we could get rid of the regions as well but this is Victoria's first upper house election ever to be both adequately democratic and useful, and let's start with the great news that nature is already healing! The abolition of Group Ticket Voting has seen candidate numbers for this year's upper house election fall by a third. Eight parties are contesting every region and ten parties plus a few non-registered-party groups and ungrouped candidates are contesting some but not all.
The new system is similar to the Senate system, meaning that leads of more than about 3% will normally not get closed down on preferences, how to vote cards will probably be even less followed than for the Assembly, preference "deals" will mostly have little impact, and nobody is winning seats off 0-2% of the vote. We might see parties winning off 4-6%, but that would be in situations where there is a race for the final seat with nobody with anything like quota. More realistically parties will be looking for 8-10% to be in the mix in most cases, and even that much doesn't guarantee a win depending on what other parties have.
A rare Upper House poll by DemosAU appeared this week but upper house polling is extremely difficult to get right. No pollster ever seems to have found the magic trick for how to simulate the experience of a voter confronted with a two-dimensional ballot with a dozen or more columns. In DemosAU's case they seem to be trying to do the right thing by listing plenty of parties, but for whatever reason the smaller parties end up getting overestimated. (The more so in this case since the poll came before it turned out that Animal Justice were only contesting two regions.) DemosAU's poll was also an outlier for the lower house (with Labor on 18% and another two polls this week have had them in the low 20s), so I'm not using it here. And there was a Morgan poll in October based on interviews from July to September but adding up the totals by region for it puts Labor on 25.2% and the Greens 18.3%, collectively seven points higher than my aggregate and highly implausible now; the regional samples were also too small and too old to be of much use.
There was a poll of Upper House districts by Lower House voting intention by Redbridge/Accent way back in June, however it was affected somewhat by said pollster's very low "others" votes. Since that poll I have Labor down 4.0 points in my Lower House aggregate, Coalition up 3.7, One Nation down 1.9 and Greens up 1.6. At the time of that poll, when I used it to model the Upper House contest (with some adjustements) I found One Nation on for as many as 12 or 13 seats and shaping to be the largest party. However, a lot has changed since.
One of the complications in modelling Victorian upper house elections is that recent elections have seen the majors underperform in the upper house, more so than anywhere else that didn't have Group Ticket Voting. Labor has underperformed by 3-4% in recent elections and the Coalition by 5-6%. An obvious cause is micro-parties campaigning hard because they could actually win under GTV, and also nominating in large numbers. I expect this major party underperformance to abate this year, but by how much? In South Australia this year Labor underperformed upstairs by 0.78% and the Liberals by 1.17% with One Nation overperforming by 1.46%. All this seems to be largely about personal votes for major party incumbents. Labor overperformed in the Senate in 2025 because of voters who voted for teal or similar independents in the Reps and Labor in the Senate. I have assumed the Coalition will continue to underperform its polling in the upper house to a reduced degree, and that Labor will about match its polling. With Labor currently looking at about a 14.5% swing against in the lower house, I'm assuming about 11.5% against in the Council.
As a first pass for eyeballing possibilities I have used Alex Jago's Senate-based 4CP estimator; I used my current aggregated primaries and allocated Ind/Other (which in Victoria is now mostly independents and left micros) 30% to each of the Greens and Labor, 22% to the Coalition and 18% to One Nation. This gives an impression of what Senate results may have looked like scaled to the current primaries - but only between the four big parties. This seems to me especially to be the best way to put some kinds of estimates on One Nation's likely strength without going into vastly detailed modelling. (It isn't useful to simply project the ON vote upwards from 2022 since in some regions, especially Northern Metropolitan, other parties like Labour DLP competed heavily for the same vote.)
It is important to bear in mind that Senate experience suggests that upper house how to vote cards (HTVs) are not much followed. This applies especially to those for minor parties. In the 2025 Senate election for Victoria, the proportion of above the line voters following the cards (see full figures here) was just 20% for Labor, 30.6% for Coalition, 12.4% for Greens, and generally single figure percentages for other parties. If you see models that use how to vote card flows to assign seats then just ignore them, they are useless.
Labor have in general pursued what appears to be an anti One Nation strategy on their upper house how to vote cards (as well as their usual bizarre habit of including the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers on their regional tickets for nothing.) In general they've included the Coalition at 6 (interesting with only 5 required). However at this stage I am not seeing scenarios where this matters. I may consider the impact of the Coalition cards, if any, when they are released.
For each region I give:
- the leading 2022 vote-getting parties with primary quota totals
- the actual 2022 seat result
- the notional result for 2022 if the same primary votes had been cast without Group Ticket Voting.
- the Senate-based 4CP Model for the region based on my Assembly aggregate. Note that these numbers are not comparable to the 2022 state results, nor to a party's actual likely vote share, as they include the preferences of every other party that ran in the Senate.
- a current estimate of what would happen in an election held now
- a list of the parties running in the region other than Labor, Coalition, One Nation and Greens
- some analysis of the chances in the seat
In general the high quota means that it appears hard for parties other than the big four to win seats. The main ways this was going to happen were a 1-1-1-1-1 result where nobody had much in the race for the last seat, or someone getting over the Greens in a region where that could be a win. However strengthening polling for the Greens and Coalition have made both these scenarios less likely.
This article is an assessment launched on 12 November. It is not a final prediction as polling may shift further in the final weeks, and in particular One Nation's vote may or may not be solid. I may or may not have time to edit in any significant changes in my assessment; if so these will be date stamped.
The initial version of this article has been written fairly quickly and may contain some errors and typos which should not affect the overall assessment. In general, this is likely to be a quite proportional system as concerns the "big four" parties and it's no surprise given the current state of polling that I find a right majority in the Council to be likely.
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EASTERN VICTORIA
2022 L-NP 2.18 Q, ALP 1.59, Greens 0.48, LCP 0.25, LDLP 0.23, ON 0.21, SFF 0.18 etc
2022 Actual 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 SF+F
2022 Notional 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 third right seat (see below) or Greens
4CP Model ALP 1.2 L-NP 2.3 ON 1.7 Greens 0.79
2026 Current Estimate 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1-2 One Nation 0-1 Green
Also running: Victorian Socilists, Legalise Cannabis, Labour DLP, Animal Justice, Sustainable Australia, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, one non-party group.
In Eastern Victoria the right will easily get at least three seats and might press for four. However since the Coalition is most likely to underperform it is doubtful that there will be spare preferences to One Nation. This could on current polling be a tight contest between the Greens and One Nation for the last seat; this is also what I get off the Redbridge/Accent sample adjusted for polling changes since.
Legalise Cannabis were the best of the rest with 4.15% in 2022 and would need to massively increase that for any chance to overtake the Greens; this would require the Greens to poll badly enough that the survivor probably lost to One Nation anyway. I see no serious prospect for anyone outside the big four here.
(A note that while I've tended in the past to cast the 2022 notional result here as a simple 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Green, with more experience of Senate preference flows from some of the One Nation charges in 2025 I now think it's more likely that one of the many right wing parties here would have caught the Greens even from 4% or so behind. There were just so many right preferences and the few left preferences would have split between Labor and the Greens)
NORTH EAST METROPOLITAN
2022 ALP 2.02 Q, Lib 1.82, Greens 0.62, LDLP 0.31, LibDem 0.25, LCP 0.19 etc
2022 Actual 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green
2022 Notional 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green
4CP Model ALP 1.66 Lib 2.14 ON 1.18 Greens 1.02
2026 Current Estimate 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Green
Also running: Legalise Cannabis, Victorian Socialists, Sustainable Australia, Labour DLP, Family First, Libertarian, one non-party group, Democrats.
Both the Senate 4CP model and an adjusted read of the Redbridge/Accent sample highlight 2-1-1-1 with the Coalition getting 2 as the mainline scenario here. The confusing-name parties (Labour DLP and the then Liberal Democrats) had a great ballot draw in 2022 but don't this year. A win from outside the big four seems extremely unlikely.
NORTHERN METROPOLITAN
2022 ALP 2.00 Q, Lib 1.13, Green 1.12, LDLP (Somyurek) 0.29, VicSoc 0.28, Reason 0.22, LCP 0.18 etc
2022 Actual 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Labour DLP
2022 Notional 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, last seat Labour DLP, VicSoc or less likely Reason
4CP Model ALP 1.66 Liberal 1.29 One Nation 1.13 Greens 1.92
2026 Current Estimate: 1 Liberal 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Greens. Fifth seat between multiple contenders including at least Labor, Greens and possibly Victorian Socialists or others.
Also running: Legalise Cannabis, unnamed Socialist Equality group, Sustainable Australia, Socialist Alliance, Labour DLP, Democrats, another unnamed group, Victorian Socialists, Family First, 1 ungrouped
Until I looked at the 4CP model I hadn't realised just how strong Northern Metro has been getting for the Greens brand; as they got barely over one quota in 2022 I hadn't realised I had to consider their second candidate as a contender for the last seat. But with their polling on the up and Labor's being now so bad, it's at least possible that the Greens can get over Labor here. The secret is that a lot of the Greens' 4CP vote share is hidden in minor left parties, primarily Victorian Socialists (themselves contributing 18% of it at the federal election) who polled 4.7% last time and could plausibly improve on that. If the Greens don't get as big a boost as I think that they might, it's possible to see a Greens vs Labor vs Vic Soc contest for the final seat. However Vic Soc are not great at getting preferences in this system even without group ticket voting. They will have the benefit of being ahead of the Greens on the Labor HTV but it will probably not be much followed.
Labour DLP won with Adem Somyurek last time and could have done so even without GTV but their problem this time is likely to be that even if they don't lose votes directly to One Nation, One Nation will suck up most of their preference sources and probably won't poll that close to quota by itself, so will also be sucking up part of any Liberal excess. Also they tend to profit from confused Labor voters but there won't be as many of those to confuse (they have drawn to Labor's left on the ballot though). And Somyurek is no longer there. Voters over the age of 900, which is about the median age for non-confused Labour DLP voters, may know that their lead candidate John Kavanagh is the brother of former MLC Peter Kavanagh; also he was somehow at two stages mayor of Moreland (now Merri-Bek).
Legalise Cannabis did well in the Northern Metro footprint at the federal election with Fiona Patten as lead candidate but she is not contesting this time. If there is a seat outside the big four, I think it will be challenging for them to outpoll Victorian Socialists.
While the Senate-based 4CP model seems to imply that three right seats is unrealistic I don't think it should be ruled out entirely. I'm really struggling to make it fly though, since the 2022 right result without GTV would have been only one seat or very barely two.
NORTHERN VICTORIA
2022 Coalition 2.1 Q, Labor 1.73, Greens 0.42, SF+F 0.31 LCP 0.29 One Nation 0.22 etc
2022 Actual 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 Animal Justice 1 One Nation
2022 Notional 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Shooters Fishers and Farmers
4CP Model ALP 1.16 Q, Coalition 2.33, One Nation 1.77, Greens 0.75
2026 Current Estimate: 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 One Nation, 1 One Nation vs Greens (One Nation favoured)
Also running: Citizens Party, Family First, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Labour DLP, Sustainable Australia, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis, Victorian Socialists, 1 unnamed group, 1 ungrouped
On current polling Northern Victoria is a serious chance for the right to bag a slate of four. The 4CP model only says it's close between One Nation and the Greens for the final seat, but One Nation polled a ridiculous 37% in the Redbridge/Accent sample earlier this year, and while that was surely overdoing it
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are traditionally strong in this area but are likely to lose support from One Nation, and will have nowhere to get preferences from anyway. (Frequently the party most desperate to give them preferences in rural seats is Labor, but I don't see them having much if any excess here anyway). Legalise Cannabis can potentially outpoll the Greens but if the vote is split between them like that then it's likely leakage and exhaust are killing them both and in any case the right may get four anyway; I also think One Nation will compete more for their vote here than in most regions. I don't see anyone beyond the big four winning here.
SOUTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN
2022 Labor 2.36 Q, Liberal 1.61, Greens 0.40, LCP 0.32, LDP 0.22, LDLP 0.20 etc
2022 Actual 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis 1 Liberal Democrat
2022 Notional 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green
4CP Model Labor 1.8 Q Liberal 1.88 One Nation 1.41 Greens 0.91
2026 Current Estimate: 1 Liberal 1 Labor 1 One Nation, 1 Liberal leading One Nation, 1 Greens leading Labor
Also running: Christian Alliance Party - Reform AU, Citizens Party, Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis, Sustainable Australia, Libertarians, Democrats, Labour DLP, 1 ungrouped
South-Eastern Metropolitan is the region where Legalise Cannabis, whose remaining incumbent Rachel Payne is recontesting, could seriously outpoll the Greens if they have not such a good election. However at the moment the Greens are travelling too well for that to appear likely. The 4CP model also suggests their brand might be in better shape here than it used to be. The Redbridge/Accent sample agrees. And there is also here a familiar story, that if the Greens are outpolled then whoever outpolls them probably isn't winning anyway. But I would keep half an eye on this one because Payne is an incumbent (for what that's worth in the upper house, which might not be that much) in a region where her party polled spectacularly well (5.25%) in 2022.
Although the Liberals seem to have One Nation shaded in the 4CP model, the Liberals are more likely to underperform in the upper house, so it's possible ON will be competitive, especially as about half the Assembly seats in this region are One Nation targets of some kind. Most likely there will be a swing to the Greens and a Labor vs Greens fight of some kind for the other seat.
SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN
2022 Liberal 2.17 Q, Labor 1.78, Greens 0.92, LCP 0.17, LDP 0.15, LDLP 0.13 etc
2022 Actual 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green
2022 Notional 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green
4CP Model Labor 1.47 Q, Liberal 2.37, One Nation 0.91, Green 1.24
2026 Current Estimate: 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Green
Also running: Democrats, Legalise Cannabis, Family First, Victorian Socialists, Sustainable Australia, Labour DLP, unnamed group headed by Melissa Lowe.
Southern Metropolitan is One Nation's weakest region on paper but even so they'd have to underperform badly on current polling to not at least scrape a seat. Southern Metro is noted for its vivid disinterest in voting for micro-parties and I can't get excited about anything here at the moment.
The very small Morgan sample (from a poll that was generally massively skewed to the left compared with current polling) did have One Nation missing out here with either Labor or the Greens getting two. However once that sample is scaled to current polling One Nation wins the final seat with something like the 4CP model above.
WESTERN METROPOLITAN
2022: Labor 2.22 Q, Liberal 1.47, Greens 0.48, LDLP 0.31, LCP 0.26, VicSoc 0.21, FF 0.19 etc
2022 Actual: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis
2022 Notional: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green
4CP Model Labor 1.82 Q, Liberal 1.68, One Nation 1.37, Greens 1.12
2026 Current Estimate: 1 Liberal 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Greens, 1 Liberal vs Labor, but with micro-party possibilities
Also running: Labour DLP, Legalise Cannabis, Victorian Socialists, Democrats, Sustainable Australia, Family First, The Republican (short for The Republican Make Australia Great Again), West Party, 1 ungrouped
There's an awful lot going on in Western Metro. A once pretty ordinary area for the Greens has been greening up around the edges giving them a very good shot at a seat on current polls. There's Moira Deeming running as the lead Family First candidate after finally parting ways with the Liberal Party. There's the pesky Labour DLP drawing the first column, which could very well keep their vote high through name confusion though it's hard to see them going anywhere with it even if it goes even higher than last time (and they'll probably lose vote share to One Nation anyway). There's the unknown quantity that is the West Party (ticket led by former indie Joe Garra) - will it actually get significant votes? There has been some focus on Victorian Socialists here where they averaged 5% in the Assembly (this alone rendered the Redbridge/Accent breakdown with only 5% for Others here implausible) but I don't think they have strength across enough of the seat to be a serious threat here in the absence of an obvious opening into a contest. I suspect this is looking at a major party contest for the final seat but there are enough rogue scenarios here to keep things interesting.
WESTERN VICTORIA
2022: Labor 2.13Q, Coalition 1.62, Greens 0.52, LCP 0.30, SF+F 0.23, LDP 0.20, ON 0.16 etc
2022 Actual: 2 Labor 2 Coalition 1 Greens
2022 Notional: 2 Labor 2 Coalition 1 Greens
4CP Model: Labor 1.45 Q, Coalition 2.05, One Nation 1.59, Greens 0.91
2026 Current Estimate: 1 Coalition 1 Labor 1 One Nation 1 Greens 1 Coalition vs One Nation
Also running: Sustainable Australia, Democrats, Victorian Socialists, unnamed group, Libertarian, Socialist Alliance, Labour DLP, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Family First, The Republican, 1 ungrouped
Western Victoria is the weakest of the non-urban regions for the right; most of the Assembly seats in it were won by Labor by a fair margin in 2022, though some are strongly Coalition such as Lowan. This may explain why the Redbridge/Accent sample had the Coalition lower house vote here on a very low 19% with One Nation on 37% - rather hard to believe that was correct with only about four of the seats here are being treated as serious One Nation targets. Here I am also a little sceptical of the 4CP model and I suspect the Coalition might have done relatively better in the federal election than it has been travelling in Victoria in this area. Given that the Coalition may underperform its polling this is another one where it's possible that One Nation could get two at its expense. This is another region where it is very difficult to find a seat for anyone other than the big four.
Tallyboard
This is what I have at present as concerns the likely winners and the expected right/left composition.
If current polling holds then it appears overwhelmingly likely that there will be a combined Coalition/One Nation majority in the Council. There would also be a combined Coalition/Labor majority. A Coalition/Greens majority is possible but would require the Coalition and Greens to between them win four of seven contests where I have flagged them as possible winners; I have flagged them as favourites in two of these contests and trailing in one other. Three of seven could lead to a situation where the Coalition/Greens and Labor/One Nation each have a combined blocking majority.
Appendix: Redbridge/Accent regional poll
I note here the vote shares in the June Redbridge/Accent poll, taken at a time when One Nation and Labor were polling higher than now and the Coalition and Greens not as high. I note that I believe this poll underestimates Others in many regions, especially Western and Northern Metros. This was a poll of lower house voting intention by upper house region.
(Redbridge/Accent June 2026 primary votes for lower house by upper house region)
