Resigning MP: Scott Bacon (ALP, Clark)
Recount from 2018 state election for remainder of 2018-22 term
Contest between Madeleine Ogilvie and Tim Cox
Ogilvie likely, but not certain, to win [UPDATE: Ogilvie has narrowly won.]
Ogilvie may sit as independent and share effective balance of power with Sue Hickey, or may rejoin Labor. [UPDATE: Ogilvie has said she will sit as an independent.]
Recount updates will now be added at the top
Previous Party-Hopping Cases:
As noted below Ogilvie's (under unique circumstances for Tasmania) is the first case of a Lower House MP deserting their party mid-term and sitting with a different party status in 38 years. However prior to that, this was a more common event. Here is a not necessarily perfect list since World War II:
* Carrol Bramich (1956) Labor to Liberal (policy tensions and internal issues). Re-elected as a Liberal.
* Reg Turnbull (1959) Labor to IND (kicked out after refusing to resign as Minister). Re-elected with massive support, later Senator.
* Bill Hodgman (1960) Liberal to IND. Defeated.
* Tim Jackson (1960) Liberal to IND (leadership change fallout). Defeated.
* Charley Aylett (1963) Labor to IND (quit after being disendorsed). Defeated.
* Kevin Lyons (1966) Liberal to IND (preselection issues). Later formed Centre Party and was re-elected.
* Nigel Abbott (1972) Liberal to IND (policy dispute). Defeated.
* Doug Lowe (1981) Labor to IND (leadership change fallout). Re-elected.
* Mary Willey (1981) Labor to IND (leadership change fallout). Defeated.
* Madeleine Ogilvie (on recount 2019) Labor to IND (multiple factors)
All of the Bramich, Turnbull and Lowe/Willey cases precipitated state elections.
There is also the case of Gabriel Haros (Liberal) who lost preselection for the 1986 election and ran as an Independent, and probably other similar cases.
It is interesting to note the weak performance of some of these independents at elections. In the 1964 election Bill Hodgman (Will's grandfather) managed only 475 votes and Charley Aylett only 102. This didn't stop Bill Hodgman going on to become a two-term MLC for Queenborough (1971-83).
Recount updates will now be added at the top
Previous Party-Hopping Cases:
As noted below Ogilvie's (under unique circumstances for Tasmania) is the first case of a Lower House MP deserting their party mid-term and sitting with a different party status in 38 years. However prior to that, this was a more common event. Here is a not necessarily perfect list since World War II:
* Carrol Bramich (1956) Labor to Liberal (policy tensions and internal issues). Re-elected as a Liberal.
* Reg Turnbull (1959) Labor to IND (kicked out after refusing to resign as Minister). Re-elected with massive support, later Senator.
* Bill Hodgman (1960) Liberal to IND. Defeated.
* Tim Jackson (1960) Liberal to IND (leadership change fallout). Defeated.
* Charley Aylett (1963) Labor to IND (quit after being disendorsed). Defeated.
* Kevin Lyons (1966) Liberal to IND (preselection issues). Later formed Centre Party and was re-elected.
* Nigel Abbott (1972) Liberal to IND (policy dispute). Defeated.
* Doug Lowe (1981) Labor to IND (leadership change fallout). Re-elected.
* Mary Willey (1981) Labor to IND (leadership change fallout). Defeated.
* Madeleine Ogilvie (on recount 2019) Labor to IND (multiple factors)
All of the Bramich, Turnbull and Lowe/Willey cases precipitated state elections.
There is also the case of Gabriel Haros (Liberal) who lost preselection for the 1986 election and ran as an Independent, and probably other similar cases.
It is interesting to note the weak performance of some of these independents at elections. In the 1964 election Bill Hodgman (Will's grandfather) managed only 475 votes and Charley Aylett only 102. This didn't stop Bill Hodgman going on to become a two-term MLC for Queenborough (1971-83).
