VICTORIA (ALP 45 COALITION 38 IND 3 GREEN 2)
Seat modelling on assumed 2PP of 53.4 to Labor currently gives estimate around ALP 47 Green 3-4 LNP 36 IND 1-2
On current numbers Labor are very likely to win, but at some risk of doing so in minority
Contest badly lacks sufficient recent polling data so any modelling is unreliable
State opinion polling aint quite what it used to be. At this stage of the 2014 Victorian state election, there had been twelve statewide voting intention polls by six different pollsters released in the previous two months. This time it's four by either two or three (depending on how you treat Newspoll/Galaxy) and the most recent one was commissioned. Over a million voters have voted already (including those whose votes are in the mail) and yet so far this month the only statewide poll we've had is a
ReachTEL for the Victorian National Parks Association. There may well be a flood of polling in the final days, but at this stage, those of us trying to predict what might occur have not a lot to work with.
