tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3646437884983667321..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2022 Federal Election Late Night LiveKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33260754956455709972022-05-23T02:17:15.489+10:002022-05-23T02:17:15.489+10:00So I thought I'd run a health check on the Lyo...So I thought I'd run a health check on the Lyons count like I did for Deakin and Bennelong earlier today. The postals were completely fine but I found something else.<br /><br />https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-summary-page-and.htmlKevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43788149151996651892022-05-22T16:12:49.875+10:002022-05-22T16:12:49.875+10:00No problems. If you look at the 2019 results it we...No problems. If you look at the 2019 results it went more as expected i.e. prepolls better than ordinary which were better than postals. Quite weird. Makes me wonder if they got the votes around the wrong way.Anthony Llewellynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06704612642213924974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21337578370998530472022-05-22T16:09:04.430+10:002022-05-22T16:09:04.430+10:00That is interesting. Might be to do with social m...That is interesting. Might be to do with social media controversies not becoming widely known til later in the campaign. Thanks.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30805818231764105472022-05-22T15:58:31.848+10:002022-05-22T15:58:31.848+10:00Hey Kevin I had a look at the postal samples for a...Hey Kevin I had a look at the postal samples for all the in doubt seats. An interesting anomaly is that Brian Mitchell (Lyons Labor) is outperforming on postals c/- his on the day 2PP on a pretty big sample. In all the other ALP vs Coalition contests ALP is going back on postals (where there is a sample).Anthony Llewellynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06704612642213924974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46728911584288916012022-05-22T04:46:25.184+10:002022-05-22T04:46:25.184+10:00Using the probability estimates on PollBludger (af...Using the probability estimates on PollBludger (after manually adjusting the 3 cornered contests that didn't make sense) gives likely totals of ALP 78, L/NP 58, Crossbench 15. I reckon this will shift more to Labor when the postals start to get counted.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35483075831326641042022-05-22T03:38:26.918+10:002022-05-22T03:38:26.918+10:00maybe Wannon as well is theoretically in doubt as ...maybe Wannon as well is theoretically in doubt as well with liberal primary below 45%, but I think Alex Dyson has a primary vote too low to catch up.hugamugahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13330265398606659360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40660422935314960532022-05-22T03:35:33.811+10:002022-05-22T03:35:33.811+10:00I would probably chuck Bradfield in doubt as well,...I would probably chuck Bradfield in doubt as well, its in the same boat as Cowper where there isnt a 2CP count at the margins are theoretically loseable for Libshugamugahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13330265398606659360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32072227224985068022022-05-22T01:00:25.072+10:002022-05-22T01:00:25.072+10:00Well it got off to an anxious start for me but thi...Well it got off to an anxious start for me but things aren't looking all too bad now! :) Any idea how badly I've screwed up my attempt at tactical voting in Vic senate? I tried to cut a few corners and fill as few boxes as possible. I'm left leaning and was hoping to influence the 6th seat, but I've left out the Legalise Cannabis Party who amazingly have 0.239 quota right now... I've got Greens #2, Labor #3, DHJP #1 plus a bunch of smaller left-wing parties in there. Labor #3 looks like they should have a good hope of getting in front of Legalise Cannabis for the left bloc votes with 0.18 quota currently.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.com