Another unusual casual vacancy in the Tasmanian House of Assembly with today's news that Braddon MHA Joan Rylah is resigning from parliament, 17 months after returning on a recount. Rylah previously served in the 2014-8 parliament after being elected in the Liberals' unusual 4/5 seat result in Braddon at the 2014 election. She was fairly narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Roger Jaensch in the 2018 race for what was now a third seat, with Labor winning two.
This resignation is being marketed as being timed to give the remaining Liberal candidate Felix Ellis time to establish himself in the leadup to the next election. That makes perfect sense, since MHAs elected at recounts often do struggle to build sufficient profile for re-election and need time to do it in. However, the resignation also follows a significant gaffe in which Rylah threatened to blockade Bunnings if they didn't stock timber from native forest logging. Aside from being not exactly respectful of business freedom, this flew in the face of her Government's persistent attempts to outlaw obstructive protesting from the other side of the forestry wars. Indeed, she would have breached laws (albeit currently inoperative) that she had previously voted for. Perhaps criticism of this gaffe brought forward or crystallised a decision to stand down, or perhaps the fact that it was made at all indicates that Rylah was already preparing for life after parliament.
Showing posts with label Rylah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rylah. Show all posts
Monday, July 27, 2020
Monday, February 11, 2019
Adam Brooks' Resignation And Replacement
A very quick post to cover off on the mechanics of the countback to replace Adam Brooks, who has resigned as a Liberal Member for Braddon, effective tomorrow. There has been speculation Brooks might resign soon for months, so I've already looked at the numbers for this in the past.
In Hare-Clark, casual vacancies are filled by what is confusingly called a recount (I often call it "countback") of the votes the sitting MP had when they were elected. If the sitting MP had more than a quota at the time of their election, the last parcel of votes they received is modified in value to bring them down to a quota. If they had less than a quota, the preferences of the last losing candidate(s) can be thrown to attempt to bring them to quota.
Whether an unsuccessful candidate got close to being elected the first time around or not is irrelevant to this process. All that matters are the votes (including preferences) held by the resigning member. Thus, for instance, if Rosalie Woodruff were to resign in Franklin, she would be replaced by another Green, and not by Nic Street who she very narrowly defeated for the final seat.
Adam Brooks was originally elected after polling 10004 primary votes (the quota was 10718) and receiving enough votes on Jeremy Rockliff's surplus to cross the line. The 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes (2635 of them) will make up the remaining 714 votes for the recount.
The original scrutiny sheet tell us which unsuccessful candidate about 426 of those 714 votes will go to, if all unsuccessful candidates recontested. Joan Rylah would get 61%, Felix Ellis would get 30% and no other candidate would get more than 2% by themselves. (If no candidate gets 50% of the initial votes in a recount, then there is a distribution of preferences as in a single-seat election, but I'm not expecting that to be the case here).
The original scrutiny sheet doesn't contain any direct information on where the remaining 10292 votes go (these are mostly 1 Brooks with a few 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks 3 Jaensch, Dow or Broad). Party scrutineers may have this information. However we do know that not only did Rylah outperform Ellis by about two to one on the known 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes, but also that Rylah outperformed Ellis 3436-1842 on primaries, 1196-523 on Rockliff preferences, and 675-470 on the preferences of all remaining candidates. Based on this it would be a massive surprise if Ellis outperformed Rylah on the preferences of Adam Brooks. Rylah as a sitting MP was simply the much higher profile candidate.
Had Rylah not nominated for the recount but Ellis had, Ellis would have won. Had neither recontested, he government would have had the never-used option of requesting a single-member by-election rather than allowing their seat to go to another party. (I do hope I live to see one of those someday!)
This doesn't look like being an interesting recount but I just thought I should put the details of how it works out there anyway. And one note of interest - if Rylah resumes her career, the Tasmanian parliament will have a majority of female MPs, with 14/25 in the House of Assembly and 7/15 in the Legislative Council, at least until May. In May, one male MLC is retiring and two female MLCs are defending their seats.
Update Feb 25: The recount is on today. I expect the winner to be known by the end of the day unless it is unexpectedly close between Rylah and Ellis. Ellis had to resign his job with Senator Colbeck to contest the vacancy, but I expect this is a temporary Commonwealth requirement and he can be reappointed.
Update: Rylah wins with 53.6% to 37.2%. We now have another recount coming following the shock resignation of Rene Hidding; this will be won by John Tucker assuming he contests.
In Hare-Clark, casual vacancies are filled by what is confusingly called a recount (I often call it "countback") of the votes the sitting MP had when they were elected. If the sitting MP had more than a quota at the time of their election, the last parcel of votes they received is modified in value to bring them down to a quota. If they had less than a quota, the preferences of the last losing candidate(s) can be thrown to attempt to bring them to quota.
Whether an unsuccessful candidate got close to being elected the first time around or not is irrelevant to this process. All that matters are the votes (including preferences) held by the resigning member. Thus, for instance, if Rosalie Woodruff were to resign in Franklin, she would be replaced by another Green, and not by Nic Street who she very narrowly defeated for the final seat.
Adam Brooks was originally elected after polling 10004 primary votes (the quota was 10718) and receiving enough votes on Jeremy Rockliff's surplus to cross the line. The 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes (2635 of them) will make up the remaining 714 votes for the recount.
The original scrutiny sheet tell us which unsuccessful candidate about 426 of those 714 votes will go to, if all unsuccessful candidates recontested. Joan Rylah would get 61%, Felix Ellis would get 30% and no other candidate would get more than 2% by themselves. (If no candidate gets 50% of the initial votes in a recount, then there is a distribution of preferences as in a single-seat election, but I'm not expecting that to be the case here).
The original scrutiny sheet doesn't contain any direct information on where the remaining 10292 votes go (these are mostly 1 Brooks with a few 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks 3 Jaensch, Dow or Broad). Party scrutineers may have this information. However we do know that not only did Rylah outperform Ellis by about two to one on the known 1 Rockliff 2 Brooks votes, but also that Rylah outperformed Ellis 3436-1842 on primaries, 1196-523 on Rockliff preferences, and 675-470 on the preferences of all remaining candidates. Based on this it would be a massive surprise if Ellis outperformed Rylah on the preferences of Adam Brooks. Rylah as a sitting MP was simply the much higher profile candidate.
Had Rylah not nominated for the recount but Ellis had, Ellis would have won. Had neither recontested, he government would have had the never-used option of requesting a single-member by-election rather than allowing their seat to go to another party. (I do hope I live to see one of those someday!)
This doesn't look like being an interesting recount but I just thought I should put the details of how it works out there anyway. And one note of interest - if Rylah resumes her career, the Tasmanian parliament will have a majority of female MPs, with 14/25 in the House of Assembly and 7/15 in the Legislative Council, at least until May. In May, one male MLC is retiring and two female MLCs are defending their seats.
Update Feb 25: The recount is on today. I expect the winner to be known by the end of the day unless it is unexpectedly close between Rylah and Ellis. Ellis had to resign his job with Senator Colbeck to contest the vacancy, but I expect this is a temporary Commonwealth requirement and he can be reappointed.
Update: Rylah wins with 53.6% to 37.2%. We now have another recount coming following the shock resignation of Rene Hidding; this will be won by John Tucker assuming he contests.
Sunday, March 4, 2018
2018 Tasmania Postcount: Braddon
Braddon 3 Liberal 2 Labor
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP)
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win
(Update: Jaensch has won)
Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start! In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014. The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win. Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland. Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate. Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP)
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win
(Update: Jaensch has won)
Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start! In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014. The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win. Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland. Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate. Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.
Sunday, January 21, 2018
2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon
This is my Braddon electorate guide for the 2018 Tasmanian State Election. (Link to main 2018 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)
Braddon (Currently 4 Liberal 1 Labor).
North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone
Regional/rural/remote
Declared Candidates
Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time. It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election. On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that. Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.
I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions. Candidates are listed incumbent-first and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.
The order of the parties for Braddon is Liberal, T4T, Labor, SFF, Greens, JLN, Ungrouped
Braddon (Currently 4 Liberal 1 Labor).
North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone
Regional/rural/remote
Declared Candidates
Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time. It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election. On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that. Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.
I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions. Candidates are listed incumbent-first and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.
The order of the parties for Braddon is Liberal, T4T, Labor, SFF, Greens, JLN, Ungrouped
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