ReachTEL: Liberals With Solid Lead

ReachTEL (Tas State) Lib 48.1 ALP 28.7 Green 16 PUP 3.7 Other 3.4
Interpretation Lib 49.2 ALP 32.2 Green 13 PUP 2.7 Other 3
Outcome if election held now based on this poll: Liberal Majority (approx 14-8-3)
Current state "nowcast" aggregate of all polling: Liberal 14 Labor 9 Green 2

Since the Hodgman government's emphatic majority victory six months ago, two Tasmanian state polls have been seen.  The first EMRS (No Honeymoon For Liberals) showed very little difference to the election result, while the second (Closest Gap In Four Years) was underwhelming for the Liberals, though it still showed them in majority-winning territory.

Now a new ReachTEL robopoll published in today's Sunday Tasmanian, with a sample size larger than the two EMRS polls combined, provides some further evidence that Labor support is rebuilding, while suggesting the second EMRS could have been an outlier.  The poll is rosier for the Government than the second EMRS - on basic voting intentions - and suggests that much of the ALP rebuild is coming at the expense of Palmer United.  The poll also provides fairly good results for the Government's first Budget, but an indifferent response on job creation.

2014 Tasmanian State Election Guide And Candidate List

POST-ELECTION NOTE: The election has been run and won by the Liberal Party. Check the sidebar for links to post-count threads for specific electorates (updated nightly.)

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The time has come to put up some general Tasmanian State Election content on this site. This page will serve as the "hub" page for my state election coverage and will contain general big-picture stuff, lists of candidates and links to all the specialised articles.  It will be updated very frequently.  Most likely each poll will have its own article and there will be separate articles for detailed projections.  Links to articles will appear in the space below.