Saturday, May 7, 2022

Legislative Council 2022: Elwick, Huon and McIntyre Live

Elwick: CALLED (7:12 pm) Willie (ALP) retains

Huon: Harris (IND) has comfortably defeated Thorpe (ALP).

McIntyre: CALLED (6:40 pm) Rattray (IND) retains

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Live comments (scrolls to top)
All updates are unofficial, check the TEC site for official figures

Tuesday night Well, Labor has indeed lost the seat they had such a great win in in 2020 after enough left-wing voters preferred a somewhat conservative independent to Labor to get Dean Harriss into his father's old seat.  If Harriss avoids sticking too close to the electorate and works hard he could be there for a long time.

The new numbers

Labor 4 (-1)
Liberal 4
Left IND 4
Right-ish IND 3 (+1) (pending Harriss's actual voting behaviour)

This is the first gain by an independent from a major party since Rumney 2011.

Labor holds the Presidency so this may generate tied votes on which Craig Farrell's statement that he would not necessarily follow chairing conventions may be tested.  



3:50 Not even narrowly, Harriss is home by over 1000 after a very weak flow to Labor from the Greens. Greens flowed 64.4% to Labor, 35.3 to Harriss and 18 voters managed to reach the exhaust pile 

3:40 Report that Harriss has narrowly won, awaiting confirmation.

2:57 Note that in 2020, Seidel (ALP) got 69.3% off the Greens, Harriss 19.5, Armstrong 10.4 - basically Thorpe has to get very close to matching Seidel's flow after accounting for the Armstrong votes.

1:59 Cordover is out and the numbers are Harriss 9810 Thorpe 6984 with 5757 Cordover votes to throw.  The split off Antolli was Harriss 74.7 |Thorpe 19.7 Cordover 5.6.  Some votes will exhaust on this throw but a voter would have to have voted for all of Caplice, Cordover and Antolli then stopped, which would be a very weird combination, so I suspect not many.  If it is assumed no votes exhaust then Thorpe needs 74.6% to win, with some exhaust maybe 75.5%.  Interesting - he is up against an independent not a Liberal which makes it harder, though a very small sample I saw of Greens preferences was strong enough.

1:48 There is a report that Thorpe is getting 20% of Antolli's preferences but it is not clear if this is raw (splitting three ways) or with Cordover's share sampled to see where they go next.  Either way this looks very tight.

12:50 I understand Cordover will be out next but awaiting confirmation.

12:00 Antolli is out!  Caplice has put Cordover over Antolli.  Caplice's preferences split 43.4% Greens, 32.7% Harriss, 17.7% Thorpe, 6.1% Antolli.  But this is a big boost for Harriss who has now only 42 votes behind Thorpe with only 1.09% difference between Cordover and Antolli, meaning Harriss now only needs a very slightly better split off Antolli than Thorpe gets off Cordover.  The other thing still alive is that in theory Antolli could put Cordover over Thorpe - Cordover needs a 9.5 point better split off Antolli than Thorpe gets to achieve this.  The fact that Cordover and Antolli both hail from the same side of the division might influence this, so it isn't impossible.  Antolli's fourth place is to my knowledge the first time a major party endorsed candidate has ever finished fourth or worse in the LegCo.

Tuesday 17th 11:00: Today's the day, but I don't have a timeline as yet.  Numbers posted when something happens or I hear something.

Update Wednesday: Current standings Thorpe 25.04 Harriss 23.74 Antolli 22.74 Cordover 20.72 Caplice 7.77.  Thorpe's lead over Harriss is still at 1.3% but Antolli is a little closer to Harriss and Cordover has come up - keeping very much alive the chance he gets over Antolli and into third (it still seems very hard for him to get over Thorpe into second though, because Liberal preferences that may for all I know assist him will I think be more going to Harriss and maybe Thorpe.)  



Update Tuesday: Rechecking has occurred, but negligible changes.

Update Sunday: The next lot of Huon postals have been added now and it's Thorpe 25.23 Harriss 23.93 Antolli 22.79 Cordover 20.32 Caplice 7.72.  Thorpe's lead is 1.3% compared to 1.6% in my projection last night, but Cordover is 0.4% better than projected, providing Thorpe with more preferences.  I have at this stage seen very little scrutineering data - just an ALP/Liberal split on preferences from a small booth with a very tiny sample consistent at least with the idea that Local Party preferences will be left-leaning. 

If primary votes stay much as they are then I estimate that Harriss needs the flow of Liberal preferences to him to be about 8-11 points higher than the flow of left preferences to Thorpe, assuming the exhaust rate from each is around the same.  So if Thorpe gets only a 70-25-5 split off the left preferences, Harriss would need something like an 78-17-5 split off Antolli.  (Most likely the exhaust rate will be nothing like 5%).  

Update: I have now seen some scrutineering figures from a booth where Thorpe, Cordover and Antolli all performed well and Harriss and Caplice were below their average.  The Greens' preferences go strongly to Thorpe and Caplice with a negligible "leak" to Harriss on the first throw.  From even a very small sample Antolli's preferences have (at least) a significant leak to Thorpe.  

End of night wrap: A Sizzler And Two Fizzlers!

Two of tonight's three Legislative Council counts were over as contests almost immediately.  Tania Rattray has been rewarded with another easy re-election (the David Downie run against her was a late announced attempt that has not amounted to much) and Josh Willie is back in Elwick with a swing in his favour, albeit against modest opposition.  The latter will be a big relief to Labor after a dire performance in the area at the state election.  

Huon, however, is unresolved (at least pending any scrutineering figures).  It is almost certainly a preference race between Labor and Dean Harriss though there remains the ghost of a chance that one or the other could be knocked out along the way.  Labor will start with some lead but not enough to be sure of winning.  

We need to wait til all the primary votes are in but the Liberal performance in Huon is underwhelming and they are at risk of finishing fourth after preferences.  This may just reflect that Antolli was not a very well known candidate, but is closely associating with Eric Abetz a wise move when voters had a more moderate-sounding alternative in Harriss?  

For Labor, we need to see if they get out of the jail Seidel's resignation put them in by recovering the seat (the margin doesn't matter here, a win is a win is a win) so it's too early to evaluate their result overall.  At least the Elwick result shows the party brand in the northern suburbs isn't destroyed beyond repair.

The Greens have performed somewhat better than I thought they might in all three seats, perhaps drawing some benefit from the travails of both major parties.  Especially they can take some comfort from holding the bulk of their state election vote in Huon despite competition from Caplice and Thorpe for their votes.  The Local Party has performed modestly but not terribly at its first outing, but no-one should expect it to repeat the same vote statewide or in the Senate at the federal election.  

Geographically in Huon there are some unsurprising patterns.  Compared to the state election the Labor vote held up best on the western side of the seat near Thorpe's home base (Huonville/Geeveston etc) and the Liberal vote was down more there.  The Green vote more or less held the state election result in Kingborough but not in Huon Valley.  

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9:40 Huon postals are in and of these Antolli has 25.8%, Harriss 25.1%, Thorpe 24.7%, Cordover 16.7%, Caplice 7.8%.  This has put Antolli into third ahead of Cordover, and he's not currently safe from being pushed into fourth on Caplice's preferences but may become so with more postals.

Current primaries are Thorpe 25.81 Harriss 23.80 Antolli 22.40 Cordover 20.45 Caplice 7.54.  If I assume 3000 formal postals to come and that they flow at the same rates as the ones so far then I project Thorpe 25.6 Harriss 24.0 Antolli 22.9 Cordover 19.9 Caplice 7.6.  On that I'm not sure Caplice preferences would put Cordover over Antolli, but it doesn't matter much because it's hard to see either's preferences favouring Antolli over Harriss.  Therefore this still looks to me like a straight fight between Thorpe and Harriss on the preferences of Antolli, Cordover and Caplice.  Thorpe takes a small lead and the advantage that will be somewhat more left than right preferences.  However it's plausible the flow from the Liberals will be strong enough for Harriss to win.  A very interesting distribution awaits us and we may not know much more until preferences are thrown on, I think, the 17th.  If I get any scrutineering intel I will note it.  

There are some weird scenarios I can't completely rule out yet.  For instance, suppose the Local Party flow to Greens is very strong, Antolli is knocked out in fourth and for some reason, with most of his preferences going to Harriss, more of the rest of them go to Cordover than Thorpe - extremely unlikely but not impossible given Antolli and Cordover have support bases on the same side of the seat; Thorpe might then be knocked out.  I think this is very remote but shouldn't be discounted.

9:20 McIntyre postals added and Rattray now on 58% after polling 63% of postals.

8:40 Elwick postals are added (well nearly 4000 of them) and in those Labor is performing strongly, running 4% above the on-the-day and prepoll vote. 

8:00 Just waiting in Huon for what is expected to be 5000 postals.  That could be a while.  

7:54 I've been ignoring the other two contests but both Rattray and Willie are going to win without needing preferences.  

7:50 Thorpe beats Antolli in Blackmans Bay (ouch.)  With 50.2% of enrolment counted (that might end up at 80-85) Thorpe leads Harriss by 2.89%.  That lead is starting to look like a thing.  The question now will be what is Harriss like on postals.

7:46 Prepolls added in Huon. Antolli topped them but has still not overtaken Cordover and would need some buffer over Cordover to avoid being pushed back to fourth on Caplice's preferences.  Thorpe leads Harriss by 2.26%.

7:38 All on-the-day booths in in Huon except Blackmans Bay, but still prepolls and a lot of postals to come.  A general theme is that, perhaps on account of the poor condition of both major parties at the moment, the Greens have done well in every seat.   They're not winning Huon on current numbers but the fact that I have to even think about that is a sign of how good a performance it is.  Pre-election I said that 17.5% would be decent; they are currently on 21.8%.

7:18 We're waiting on these booths in Huon: Blackmans Bay, Judbury, Margate.  Perhaps things will change significantly with prepolls and postals but at the moment it is hard to see how the final two is anyone other than Thorpe vs Harriss.  And the problem Thorpe may have is that the Liberal preferences will be strongly for Harriss but the Greens and Local preferences may not split as strongly to Labor against an independent, albeit a conservative one.  Last time around the split off the Greens was 69-19 in Seidel's favour but Thorpe is clearly not getting Seidel's primary vote - will he get the preference flow?

7:12 CALLED Elwick Willie (ALP) retains.  He is well over 50 now and the fairly even split amid his opponents continues.  

7:08 With the Huonville/Geeveston votes coming in Thorpe has now taken the lead, narrowly from Harriss, with Cordover in third and Antolli in fourth.  (I was talking about the Liberals perhaps finishing third but it might be even worse than that.)  Seems impossible for Antolli to win from here even if he lifts on postals, which might happen.  We could be looking at a preference fight between Thorpe and Harriss, benefiting on preferences from the Greens/Caplice and Antolli respectively.  I don't think this will be callable tonight.

7:01 Huge batch of figures in in Huon - Cordover still has a primary lead but it is falling.  I expect Antolli (currently in fourth) to pick up in Blackmans Bay.  Currently processing these numbers on projection.

6:55 Five booths in in Elwick and Willie has primary vote swings to him between 1.6% and 11.9% suggesting he is on course to break 50 (he is currently just over).   The Greens are running at about a 10% swing so they are on course to end up in the low 20s with Cazaly in the high 20s.  Even if, say, Green preferences split 70-30 to Cazaly, Willie would still be on course to win 57-43.  (I suggest they will not be anything like that strong if they are even to him at all.)  

6:51 A bunch of booths have come in in Elwick and the even Cazaly/Greens split continues.  Looks callable, just checking.

6:46 Antolli tops Howden primary count improving his projection, I now have him close to Thorpe but not safe from being caught by Harriss.

6:44 A good start for Willie in Elwick with a 10% swing in Collinsvale booth, but better still for him the other votes are split evenly between Greens and Cazaly.  (Greens could be on for a good result in this one.)

6:40 CALLED McIntyre Rattray retains

6:38 Four booths in in Huon now and Cordover is leading but these are good Green booths including Woodbridge which is among their best.  I am projecting Labor to 25, Liberals and Harriss 21, Greens 20 but there is a large amount of uncertainty in this projection.  

6:35 Five booths in in McIntyre and Rattray has a massive lead already.  On the verge of calling it immediately.

6:28 We're off and in Huon, Gideon Cordover wins Alonnah which is a strong Greens booth.  Nobody else is getting anything much in that booth which is fascinating.  Also Thorpe wins Southport.  In early projections I have nobody over 30%.

6:17 Similar postal numbers overall in other seats so could be a lot of postals (as in 2020).  When this happens in these elections the postals do not vary that much compared to the booth voting.

6:01 A scrutineer has advised me there are 1500 prepolls and 8000 postals in Huon and that 5000 postals will be counted tonight, so that should give a very good idea of the primary vote result.  
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Intro (Saturday 5:00 pm)

Welcome to my live and post-count coverage of the 2022 Legislative Council elections.  This year's offering includes a regular election for Elwick, the first ever election for the new seat of McIntyre, and a by-election for Huon to fill the seat until 2026 following the early resignation of Dr Bastian Seidel (ALP).  My guides to the seats are here:


Sadly I didn't find the time to update my assessment of Legislative Council voting patterns this year, but the state of play going into tonight is:

4 Liberal
4 Labor
4 left independents
2 right-ish independents
1 Vacant (won by Labor in 2020)

Labor is defending Elwick against an independent and the vacancy in Huon is all-in. The Liberals are not defending anything and have a free swing in Huon, while McIntyre is IND vs IND.  The election is the first test to date of the Local Party (I'll take anything below 5% as signalling that it's a flop, and above 15% as signalling a potential strong Senate result), and it's the first test for Premier Jeremy Rockliff.  In Huon there's potential for the youngest ever Legislative Councillor, and also the possibility that one of the major parties fails to make the final two (which would be embarrassing).  

Labor would want to win Elwick comfortably; anything closer than, say, 54-46 would be disappointing, while defeat would be disastrous.  In Huon the meaning of whatever happens is less clear as the Liberal candidate is a relatively recent Tasmanian while the Labor candidate is very young by house of review standards, so whoever loses will have some excuses.  

So there's quite a lot to play for, but there has been very little energy around these three elections, which have been overshadowed by the federal campaign.  There may be attempts to read things into the federal campaign but I wouldn't recommend too much of that.  

How this works

Comments will start soon after 6 pm (slowly at first around dinner!) and will go through til counting finishes (usually about 9:30-ish) with a wrapup posted sometime after that.  Refresh frequently after 6:30-ish to see the most recent comments - at the height of counting on average there will probably be a new comment every 5-10 minutes or so.

Comments will continue over coming days as the post-counting unfolds.  The level of comments will depend on how close the seats are.

Unlike 2020 I don't have any information on the likely volume of postals or speed of the count.  

Elwick and McIntyre may or may not go to preferences; Huon will.  Preferences will not be counted tonight.  If an exclusion order is clearly apparent the TEC may do provisional throws as early as tomorrow, but in recent years it has been less keen to do so because of COVID protocols.  Otherwise we'll be back here around Thursday 19th.  

When I consider there is no realistic doubt about the fate of a seat the magic word CALLED will appear in the header.  Until then it will contain a brief summary of how the count is going in each seat, which may at times be out of date.

Early in the night I'll be trying to do some rough projections for Huon, but as the numbers settle down I'll largely stop doing this.  For Huon, I am projecting the Labor, Green and Liberal votes off the 2021 state election, and Paul Harris' vote off what he got in the same booths in 2020.   For Elwick, I will at least be roughly comparing Willie's votes to what he got in 2015 (when also competing with an independent and the Greens) but I probably won't run a formal projection.  For McIntyre, no projection, but I'll be keeping an eye on booth locations as there may be geographic variation.  (My feeling is that Rattray has to win the north-east of McIntyre to win while Downie has to win the face of the Tiers and the south.  If both those things happened it might be a close contest.)   

3 comments:

  1. The anti-Teal Independents campaign commentary in the National media by the Liberals, for the Commonwealth election, might influence the Liberal to Independent preference flow in a downward direction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The "(at least) a significant" Liberal to ALP preference flow is consistent with my theory.

      Delete
  2. Elwick shows +7% on Primaries to Willie and +10% to Greens on 2016 results. This could be due to a few factors, quality/name recognition of conservative independent, redistribution of Elwick Boundaries into parts of Lenah Valley or continued demographic changes in Elwick. Either way this is clearly gone further to the left. As someone in Elwick, Willie was the only candidate seen or door knocking, so that effort (advantage of incumbency) definitely helped him.

    ReplyDelete