Legislative Council 2026: Huon and Rosevears Live And Post-Count (Plus Nepean!)

Huon: Dean Harriss leads Clare Glade-Wright narrowly on primaries but Glade-Wright appears strongly placed on preferences

Rosevears: Jo Palmer (Lib) has very large primary vote lead and expected to win (Liberals have claimed victory)

NEPEAN (VIC): CALLED 8:30 pm Marsh (Lib) retain

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Live comments (scrolls to top)

All numbers here are unofficial, check the TEC and VEC sites for official numbers

Refresh every 10 mins or so after 6:30 for latest updates

Sunday night: Premier Rockliff has claimed victory in Rosevears.  I am assuming on this basis that the Liberals have scrutineering of the Monson flow such that they're certain they have won.  I have checked the booth figures for irregularities and found none (there is a curioisity of Labor beating the Greens 87-48 in two alphabetically adjacent booths, but neither is wildly out of whack with expectations anyway.)

Sunday: A few booth comments on Huon while we wait for more figures tomorrow.  Harriss topped every booth in the Huon Valley council area except for Cygnet topped by Glade-Wright and Dover which was McKibben's sole booth win.  Glade-Wright topped every Kingborough booth except Sandfly where Harriss was slightly ahead on primaries but I suspect not after preferences.

In comparison to 2022 Harriss increased his vote in most booths - as one would strongly expect him to in the absence of a Liberal candidate - but actually went backwards in Kettering, Middleton and Woodbridge, the very green tree-changy booths that are strongly anti-salmon (that said, not much Liberal vote to gain from in those).  In general he didn't pick up much in the Channel area booths, whether they were in Kingborough or Huon Valley.

I wasn't sure Glade-Wright was going to match the Peter George vote from the state election but in fact she beat it by several points!  This happened particularly in the upper Channel booths (Margate, Howden, Snug etc) more so than the very green booths.  

Late night wrap:  What have we seen here in these Tasmanian contests?  Well not a great night for any of the parties.  For the Greens, a couple of par results.  For Labor, what looks like a pretty good result in Rosevears depending on preferences, but a definitely bad one in Huon, a seat they won six years ago.  For the Liberals, they'll be relieved to hold Rosevears, but it probably won't be a big win, and voters in Huon are still giving them a kicking over salmon, or something.  It's the left independent side of things that has had the best night with Glade-Wright in with a serious shot of winning though we'll have to wait a fair while to see where that ends up.  

10:20 I've seen some scrutineering figures for Huon from one of the prepolls that are very positive for Glade-Wright, projecting her to over 52% 2CP.  If she wins it will be the first case of an indie unseating another indie ("Independent Labor" types excluded) since Norma Jamieson beat Geoff Squibb in Mersey 2003.  

8:49 ROSEVEARS FINAL FOR NIGHT Palmer 42.68 Mckinnon 24.73 McLennan 16.59 Monson 16.01.  74.81% of enrolment counted.  Palmer needs 22.5% of preferences to win.  Extremely difficult to see how that doesn't occur, plus Palmer's position should improve on postals.  Actually I think I'll hold off on calling for now just because the votes are still subject to rechecking and I've seen zero sampling of Monson but it very much looks like Jo Palmer has retained.  

HUON FINAL FOR NIGHT Harriss 30.60 Glade-Wright 27.83 McKibben 16.49 Gibson 15.08 Rowan 5.38 Petersen 4.61.  Hard to see the Greens preferences not breaking at very least 70-30 to Glade-Wright, which puts Glade-Wright ahead and then Harriss would need a lot off McKibben.  But while Labor's vote may still include some industry types, McKibben is also a candidate with some teal appeal, plus gender preferencing can be a factor, so I'm not sure the Labor votes will do much.  Glade-Wright is definitely close enough to win this.  

We await word on where the counts will go from here.  Sometimes the TEC does provisional distributions to establish who will win.  In the case of Rosevears, McLennan and Monson are too close to be sure yet who is last, so the TEC would currently need to do alternative throws as they did in Elwick recently.  Huon has a somewhat similar issue with McKibben vs Gibson for third and fourth.   The way through in terms of basic primary counting is here.

8:30 Second prepoll added - Palmer now leads 42.84-24.92 and needs only 22.2% of preferences to win.  I'm warming up for you know what.

8:26 One Nation have got into second on primaries in Nepean but they can't stay there after preferences and it wouldn't help them if they did.  A good win for the Victorian Liberals.

8:12 Legana is in and Palmer has 41.82% from Mckinnon 24.96%, meaning at present Palmer needs 24.6% of preferences to win.  Postals and prepolls should improve her position somewhat.  I've heard two reports of Greens flows at 18% and 25% (the former with more sample size detail), I've seen no reports of Monson flows.  It's not easy to see why Monson's preferences should break that heavily so I believe Palmer wins, but it can be close.  

8:06 And Glade-Wright wins Blackmans Bay South booth!  There is still a second prepoll to be added, with that to come Harriss's lead is only 3.2%.  In Rosevears there are two prepoll centres and Legana (which will be very strong for Palmer) to come.  

7:57 Have heard indirectly that Palmer is doing better on Greens preferences than normal.  If this is so she will be fine, Monson's preferences won't break strongly.

7:45 Two booths to go in Huon, Blackmans Bay South and Geeveston (the latter will be good for Harriss).  At least some prepolls are in and Harriss's lead is only four points.  There's a reason I'm not talking much about Labor here by the way, they haven't been in the mix at any stage and are currently fighting with the Greens for third.  

7:41 60.3% of preferences to Marsh at Blairgowrie, a weak One Nation booth.  I don't see how Marsh doesn't win Nepean.  

7:36 Five booths in in Nepean now and little change to the previous picture, it is looking like a Liberal vs independent 2CP.  We have a 2CP count from Waterfall Gully where the Liberals are getting 61% of preferences albeit with a higher than usual One Nation vote.  This is looking super strong for Marsh at this stage and it could well be that this gets called tonight.

7:33 Glade-Wright closing the gap in the last few booths and still has Blackmans Bay to come.  Green preferences will surely favour her substantially over Harriss.  Let's see where the night finishes especially after prepolls but Harriss's position looks shaky at the moment.    In Rosevears it now looks like Monson will finish fourth.  Currently Palmer needs 26% of Green and Monson preferences.  This number should go down with prepolls and postals.  LegCo preference flows tend not to be that strong.

7:22 Labor now second in Rosevears with Monson still narrowly fourth.  Palmer seems to be doing OK here as if she keeps her primary well into the 40s she shouldn't be caught.  

7:20 More booths coming in in Huon.  Harriss is about seven points ahead, my projection says that will go up to nine, but I doubt it will as most of the rest are in Kingborough.  Barring high quality scrutineering we will probably not know the Huon result tonight.  

7:14 A couple of booths in in Nepean and the Liberal candidate, Marsh, is at this stage in front.  Probably if things stay as they are he would be able to beat either Hutchinson or One Nation on the other's preferences.  At this stage One Nation are in third, noting they need to be well over Hutchinson to avoid being eliminated by Greens preferences.  So seems a good start for Marsh but this does depend on what One Nation's preferences do.  

7:10 Trevallyn Central does its thing and pushes Monson down to fourth.  The Liberals will be hoping that she stays there.  

7:07 Rosevears is weird.  My projection says the primary vote totals should finish about where they are except the Greens should come up a bit.  Palmer is probably going to need something close to a quarter of preferences against either Labor or Monson.  

7:02 Huon: huge numbers for Harriss in the Ranelagh booth (one of the Huon Valley booths).  I now project him around the low 30s to a lead of something like 10 points.  Is that enough?  Hard to say.

7:00 Prospective indies in Rosevears must be kicking themselves as they see Monson who was barely even findable at the start of the campaign move into second on primaries.  Palmer is projecting to low 40s at this stage.  

6:53 Strong Port Huon booth for Harriss sees him much closer to Glade-Wright now and I project him to improve.  Nothing from Nepean yet by the way.  By the way the booth I had as Margate was actually Middleton (not sure what happened there!) but Middleton is a booth that I would expect to be very good for Glade-Wright so the projections have shifted with that corrected.  I am now projecting Harriss for a substantial lead.  

6:49 One of the Legana booths is in and Palmer has gone above 40 in my projection (which would probably be enough) but an interesting thing here is that Monson is in third and threatening Labor for second.  What will Greens preferences do between Labor and Monson should it stay like that?

6:46 Glade-Wright wins Middleton booth (not Margate as previously advertised, not sure what happened there!)

6:43 Rosevears is going too! In the first two booths, Palmer roughly matched the Liberal state tally in one and was well below it in another, meaning I have her tracking for about 39, at which point the preferences of obscure independent Monson (who is getting a high vote so far by being the only independent!) would be important.  

6:31 And we're off!  In Huon, Glade-Wright tops two Bruny booths (not surprising) and Harriss tops primaries in Southport but not by much.  These are very small booths but look like a very good start for Glade-Wright who at this early stage projects competitively with Harriss for the primary vote lead (on average my very early, very unreliable projections put both of them around 31).   However Harriss may lift later.  Interesting start.  That Southport booth looks less than wonderful for Labor given it is not far from McKibben's home town.  

6:20 Have also noticed some Rosevears booths that weren't in action or were under other names in the 2025 state election: there are now two Legana and two "Trevallyn" booths.  Trevallyn Central is the standard (and very green) Trevallyn booth, Trevallyn is the previous Riverside West (not green!), and Riverside North was not at the state election.

5:40pm:  The usual "yes this thing is on" post.  A few things of note.  Firstly in Huon there is a third Bruny Island booth on North Bruny, which will be called North Bruny; probably it will behave like other Bruny booths (very green/left).  TEC have told me it's a reinstatement of the former Barnes Bay booth.  For Huon I'll be projecting Labor and the Greens off the 2025 election, Glade-Wright off the Peter George group total at the 2025 election (noting that I expect that to be unreliable to a degree) and Harriss off both his 2022 result and the Liberal 2025 result (I don't expect either to be great but the truth may be somewhere in between!)  

As concerns Nepean there will be a very low day vote which may be highly unreliable and we don't have useful comparative data for One Nation's likely performance on prepolls and postals in an absents-free by-election, so things will be a bit rubbery.  One Nation will also perform much better in lower socio-economic booths and Nepean is quite a mixed bag economically.

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Intro (Saturday 2 pm)

We're here again, it's counting night for two more Tasmanian Legislative Council seats with first-term incumbent Dean Harris (IND) facing Labor, Green and tealish IND challengers and fellow first-term incumbent Jo Palmer (Liberal) up against Labor and the Greens.  You can see my seat previews here:

Huon

Rosevears

and also my assessment of Legislative Council voting patterns

I've had less time to cover the LegCo election campaigns than normal as I was overseas for two weeks in April.  During this time I had very little spare time anyway but my ability to update the site was further affected by my laptop charger expiring in smoke and my phone charger being unreliable.  However all is back to normal now.  

As I note, a Labor opposition that normally votes with the government (hmmm) means that the government isn't often troubled on the floor of the chamber, but its proposed greyhound racing ban is one where it may need all the numbers it can get and won't be wanting to see any wins for the red team tonight.  Nor would it be keen to see independent Dean Harriss replaced by an independent to his left in Clare Glade-Wright.  Tonight will be an interesting test of how everyone's travelling, noting that Labor tends to do badly in these contests in the north and would do well by historic standards to get anywhere near winning Rosevears.  

Also tonight is an interesting by-election in Victoria where the Liberals are trying to fend off One Nation and a teal in the seat vacated by former deputy leader Sam Groth, who won the seat impressively in 2022 and has been a problem magnet ever since.    I'm not really sure whether it's better to run separate threads or cover them on the same thread; I've decided to do the latter to reduce the risk of me getting confused between threads, noting that the LegCo is my primary focus until it settles down.  The Nepean contest has been marked by more Victorian Liberal chaos though the One Nation campaign has also run into some problems; see William Bowe's rundown.

I would expect first LegCo figures from around 6:30. Note that in Huon the first booths that arrive are often on Bruny Island and these are very green/anti-salmon booths that are highly unrepresentative.  When I consider there is no realistic doubt about the fate of the LegCo seats the magic word CALLED will appear in the header.  Until then it will contain a brief summary of how the count is going in each seat, which may at times be out of date.  

Early in the night I'll be projecting party totals in Rosevears off the 2025 state election until numbers settle down.  I have a range of projection ideas for Huon and I'll announce which ones I've managed to implement in time once the count gets underway.  Note that we will not get postals tonight for the LegCo seats as Tasmania does not count postals til midweek.  We should however get plenty of prepolls.

The Amazing 2026 South Australian Election: Final Lower House Results And Poll Performance

SA 2026 ALP 34 (+5) Lib 5 (-9) ON 4 (+4) IND 4 (-)
(Changes from pre-election/notional; Labor gained two seats from Liberal during 2022-6 term)

Estimated 2PP ALP 57.89 vs Liberal (+3.3)

Estimated "Shadow 2PP" ALP 58.19 vs One Nation

The 2026 South Australian lower house was remarkable in so many ways.  It makes Queensland 1998 seem almost boring by comparison, except that Queensland 1998 was there first.  Maybe all elections are going to be like this now and this soon will not seem so unusual but if that's so my colleagues and I are going to have a very busy time in the future!

All manner of curious things happened here.  Finally, someone (Lou Nicholson in Finniss) won a state or federal seat from fourth on primaries; hooray we have lived to see it.  Both majors missed the 2CP in Stuart and Mount Gambier in the first such cases since Nicklin 2001.  The Liberal Opposition missed more 2CPs (29) than they made (18) and were outpolled by One Nation (unprecedented) but are still the Opposition.  Worse than that they missed nine 3CPs as well and even managed to finish fifth in Port Adelaide and Black - Black being a seat they won at the previous election!  And so on.  It was obvious this was going to be a very messy election - a little while out I thought how on earth will we ever make a pendulum from THIS - but aspects of it were even more unique than I saw coming.

What this election was not about

This election was not about preferences.  It takes its place alongside Victoria 2022 as an election where there has been a high volume of blaming preferential voting for a disproportionate result but preferences had virtually nothing to do with it!  The primary vote leader won in 45 of the 47 electorates.  Each major party had one seat where they led on primaries (Finniss for the Liberals and Kavel for Labor) but were beaten by an independent.  With such low primary vote shares that is bound to happen somewhere.

Much of the nonsense about the impact of preferences came from the One Nation corner, and to be fair in the early stages of the postcount this was exacerbated by confusing wording (or lack thereof) around counting realignments on the ECSA website and by the ABC not quickly calling One Nation's wins.  (And with good reason as Narungga which ended up extremely close was called by some sources on the night.)

But ultimately the reason why One Nation won 4/47 seats off their 22.9% is simply that they were only ahead on primaries in that many.  They were almost run down by an incredible preference flow to the Liberals in Narungga but survived by 58 votes.  Cory Bernardi, showing he is just as good at spreading nonsense about elections as he was at spreading it about human beings getting married, has claimed One Nation should be the opposition because "preferences got some of the uniparty people over the line".  In fact only two of the five Liberal wins even had a Labor exclusion and in both of those the Liberal candidate was well ahead of One Nation at the time.  This cannot be said for One Nation themselves in Hammond where they fell behind during the distribution and would in fact have lost had the Liberals followed the "uniparty" plot and recommended preferences to Labor.  Indeed it's another shameless (or brainless) display by Bernardi to be pushing this "uniparty" nonsense when the fact is that the Liberals tried to help One Nation beat Labor via their how to vote cards and One Nation didn't return the favour.

Estimating 2PPs - is this even worth it?

This section has been rated Wonk Factor 5/5. Beware!

The ECSA is not going to put out an official 2PP and it looks like what we will get instead is a Labor vs Non-Labor figure estimated by Antony Green (who has done a tremendous amount of analysis very quickly here) at 55.7 to Labor.  I decided I would have a go at estimating a 2PP and a Labor vs One Nation equivalent for this election anyway, partly because I wanted to have a look at Liberal vs One Nation competitiveness against Labor in certain seats and partly because, well, it was there and somebody has to climb the north face.  

The method I used is the same method (which I call the "actual distribution method") that I used for Queensland 2017 among other cases:

- where one of the 2PP sides is excluded prior to the 2CP, follow the exclusion to that point and credit all votes received by each side to that point to their 2PP.  

- for votes with other candidates at this point (One Nation for the classic 2PP and Liberals for the alternate, Greens and Independents in both cases) assign those votes on 2PP based on the total of all preferences that flowed from that source in other seats to each of the 2PP sides.  

This means that I use partial preference distributions and not just the cases where a party is excluded at the final stage; this partly helps cancel out the tendency of 3CP preference flows to be weaker than the flow from an excluded party's actual voters because of votes coming in from other sources.  Sometimes this can produce exaggerated flows in some seats - for instance if Greens preferences split 80-10-10 between Labor, Liberal and One Nation in a seat I will credit this as 88.9% for Labor vs each party, but a voter voting Greens-One Nation isn't that likely to go to Labor next.  (A voter voting Greens-Liberal, incidentally, generally will go to Labor over One Nation).  

As a sanity check I also considered the following: as we have seen with Hunter, parties do better on preferences from a given source in seats where they perform better, so it could be that One Nation and the Liberals would each do worse on each others' preferences in the seats where they don't receive them than the seats where they do.  Therefore, for instance for the classic 2PP, I graphed the ratio (Labor/(Labor+Liberal) at the point where one major was excluded) vs Labor's share of One Nation preferences, and then modelled what that should look like across every seat.  In both cases the modelled flow from one conservative party to the other came out between 1 and 2 points weaker than the flow I had already obtained, which is not significant and is about what I would expect based on batched preference flows being weaker than the flows of voters who voted 1 for a party.

Where I have the most reservation about my numbers is that there was a curiously weak flow from excluded independents to Labor vs Liberal.  This is partly driven by the exclusion of ex-Liberal Nick McBride whose preferences flowed strongly to the Liberals.  But two of the eight independents for whom there are no 2PP preference flows were also ex-Liberals, and the weak pattern extends further than just McBride.  I'll adjust my numbers if any more light is shed on these; for instance in Flinders there should eventually be a classic 2PP.  

Overall my model has the following preference flows (note that these are not necessarily primary votes for the preference sources, they may be, eg, someone who votes 1 for an obscure party, 2 Greens etc).

* To Labor vs Liberal: One Nation 27.2%, Greens 85.9%, IND 50.8%

* To Labor vs One Nation:  Liberal 33.9%, Greens 84.8%, IND 55.9%

The estimate I've obtained to date is that despite the slightly lower primary vote, the Liberals lose the 2PP vs Labor very slightly less heavily than One Nation loses the equivalent figure: I get Labor at 57.89 vs the Liberals, and 58.19 vs One Nation.

I also did (extremely rubbery) 2PP and shadow 2PP estimates for every seat using the above flows for candidates who outlasted the relevant exclusion points.  On these estimates, the win/loss outcome for Labor vs the Liberals is the same in every seat except for Heysen (49.3 vs Liberal, 56.6 vs One Nation) and Bragg (41.5 vs 56.6).  One Nation outperforms the Liberals in 24 seats but nearly all of them are either safe for Labor in either case or seats Labor lost to both parties.  Four Labor seats that are not marginal vs the Liberals are marginal vs One Nation: the northern Adelaide set of Elizabeth, King, Light and Taylor.  If One Nation sticks around Labor may be vulnerable in these seats next time around, but Elizabeth and Light were vacant so new Labor MPs should pick up personal votes.

The flows observed, by the way, suggest there is nothing wrong with continuing to use last election modelled flows for 2PPs and ALP vs ON shadow-2PPs.  The Liberal to One Nation flow at 66% is somewhat lower than the 71% that I model for the 2025 election nationwide, but that will be largely because there was no Nationals component.  The One Nation to Liberal flow is only slightly weaker than the federal election and that is with an uncompetitive Liberal Party.  The Greens to Labor flows seem slightly weaker but that is normal for state elections.  

Two-party swing strikes again

People are always complaining about two-party-preferred being useless and surely this election would be a standard for that measure if ever there was one, but not quite so fast.  Again, the two-party swing (which I've modelled as 3.3%) told much of the story of this election.  It would have been expected from this swing that Labor would have gained about four seats from the Liberals; they in fact gained five.  Below that swing level Labor won Morialta and Unley but Josh Teague somehow retained Heysen, and Ngadjuri was a dud for Labor but fell to One Nation anyway.  Slightly above the swing level, Labor won Hartley, Morphett and Colton.  So they outperformed the pendulum, but not by much, especially as three of the five seats they won became vacant.  On my estimates they may have also won the 2PP in Kavel (or not, see Addendum below), but that was in effect a retain for independents.  

For all that there was a striking pattern that Antony has also observed regarding Labor getting great swings in marginals and having swings against it in its own safe seats.  Antony has graphed it in terms of pseudoswings (eg ALP/Lib to ALP/ON) but in terms of estimated 2PP swings the pattern (coloured by seat winner) is just as stark:

The suggestion here is there could have been a "hybrid vigour" issue for Labor in seat share terms based on One Nation running strongly in some areas and the Liberals in others, except that Labor more than drowned it out by doing so well in the marginals.  Victoria might be a different story ...

I've decided not to do a mixed post-election pendulum; Ben Raue has one here and I will decide what SA pendulums come to my site and the circumstances in which they come much closer to the next election.  What is worth noting is that there are hardly any classic two-way marginals left because of the smashing inflicted on the Liberals in most of their marginals - only Heysen (Lib 0.6%), Morphett (ALP 0.7%) and Hartley (ALP 4.7%) - all the others that I model as 2PP marginals are occupied by someone else.  On the other scale Labor vs One Nation marginals are Hammond (ON 4.9%), Light (ALP 1.6%), Taylor (ALP 4.2%), Elizabeth (ALP 4.5%), King (ALP 5.2%).  Four years is an eternity in the history of One Nation being competitive or not so we will see in 2030 whether any of this matters.  Ben also has lots of excellent detail about 3CP marginality of which there is plenty (most notably Heysen, the latest in a national string of very close Liberal/ALP/Green postcounts).  Also see Ben Messenger's Blusky thread with diagrams.  

The biggest victory ever?

Labor shouldn't let this one go to their heads as there are warning signs in these results, well if you stare at them for long enough there might be.  But one theme I go on about a lot on here is federal drag, the theory and fact that when a state government is of the same party as the federal government, it tends to go backwards (and the older it is the more it does so).  Yet here a federally dragged government that had been in office throughout the previous term has beaten its previous election result by 7/47 seats (14.9%).  And this has never happened, in any state, ever.  It's not quite the seat share record for an at-election change (because the 7 seats includes the two the government, also remarkably, picked up in by-elections during the term, so if ignoring those it's beaten by the Playford government's 5/39 coming off an indie rebellion in SA 1941) but something has gone very right for SA Labor and very wrong for its main opponent here.  

Despite this, it could have been worse for the conservative forces, with widespread predictions that either the Liberals or One Nation might actually get zero or one seats.  (I saw at least half a dozen forecasts of a One Nation seat zero by people who were pretty well informed about elections but may in some cases have let their dislike of the party lead them astray).  With nine seats between them, the two parties did even do slightly better than my read of the polls as pointing to a few seats each if correct, but that was partly because the election was actually just a little bit closer than the polls suggested.  The major party gap was slightly lower, and so was the Greens primary, and the preference flow from independents may have been weaker - all pointing to a lower 2PP swing than expected.  It was also because independents on the whole did not have such a great election.  Fraser Ellis finally lost (perhaps because voters realised a vote for him could be a vote for having to vote again) and Lou Nicholson was the only gain in a seat that didn't have an outgoing independent.  Other touted indies flopped even if they had done well in 2022.  Credit by the way to Australian Election Forecasts for a remarkably close to exact seat tally forecast.

And finally ... the polls!

This was an excellent election for Australian polling under unusual and difficult circumstances.  Four pollsters using online panel polling polled at least twice each (Newspoll, YouGov, DemosAU and Fox&Hedgehog) and these collectively did very well on the overall shape of the result.  Non-online offerings such as an SMS poll by Roy Morgan and an experimental AI voice automated poll by Resolve were a bit more excitable on the size of the One Nation vote, whether because of the method differences or otherwise.  

Three of the six pollsters decided not to release two-party figures (the three who did were YouGov, Fox&Hedgehog and Roy Morgan; these also all issued ALP vs One Nation figures).  I've decided it is not appropriate to formally measure 2PP accuracy for an election where the utility of 2PP is so heavily debated by analysts with many not even estimating it, and where there is no single method of estimating it, so for this election I am only using primary votes.  Here is my usual table minus the 2PPs (note: I am using the ABC's figures as there is an issue with the ECSA total numbers):

Ave is simply the average of the raw errors and RMSQ is root mean square error, which punishes big misses on one party more than several small differences.  For the record I am using Ave as the lead method this time but the order is the same in both cases.  And if I was to include the 2PPs for those producing them then YouGov with 59-41 for both is closest to my estimate (all who bothered had 59-41 for ALP vs One Nation, Fox&Hedgehog had 60-40 for the classic 2PP and Morgan had 61-39).  Such has been the accuracy of Newspoll in recent years that this is the first election since Victoria 2018 where there have been more pollsters above it than below it, but this is a tribute to just how well the others did.  Extremely close between the top three but YouGov has taken home the Easter chocolates.

There's not much to do with the upper house except wait for the button to be pressed late this month, with no signs at present that anyone will get near Labor for the final seat.  So I think that's the end of my SA coverage for now.  In the next few weeks I will be on holiday and won't be online much but I will be back on May 2 with live coverage of the curious set of Huon, Rosevears and Nepean and then also covering Farrer on May 9.  

--

Addendum April 11: Antony Green has estimated 2PPs for eight seats that are missing them; these figures for Labor with my method's estimates are shown below (Green/Bonham):

Chaffey 31.4/31.4

Finniss 42.9/41.1

Flinders 25.9/30.9

Kavel 49.2/52.4

Mackillop 32.5/34.1

Mount Gambier 44.4/46.4

Narungga 35.4/38.4

Stuart 39.4/40.3

These may be based off pulled 2CP counts and if so will be more accurate than my estimates.  There is however a large discrepancy in the 2PP vote totals for Stuart and a smaller one for Mackillop.  If I include these numbers as is my 2PP estimate for Labor reduces to 57.72 (perhaps slightly further accounting for the Stuart undercount).  However as this is a skewed sample of the seats that do not have exact 2PPs (skewed towards seats where Labor polled poorly and was eliminated) it is better not to do this so 57.89 remains my overall estimate for now.  Antony has also provided an ALP/ON estimate for Croydon of 79.7 vs my 78.8; if this is included then ALP vs ON changes to 58.21; again, it's better not to do this.  

Legislative Council 2026: Rosevears

ROSEVEARS (2020 margin Lib vs IND 0.57%)

This is my second guide to the Legislative Council this year.  My guide for Huon is here and my latest guide to voting patterns in the upper house is up.   

I expect to be doing live coverage of the Legislative Council elections on this site on election night, scheduled for Saturday May 2.  However, updates to this page in the lead-up will probably be less frequent than normal. 

The current numbers in the Council are three Liberal, three Labor, one Green and eight independents, with the independents ranging fairly evenly across the Green to Liberal spectrum.  Labor gives up one vote on the floor and in the committee stages because it holds the Presidency.  As the major parties frequently vote together, the Government has not had an especially difficult time of it in the upper chamber lately, most notably getting the hugely controversial Macquarie Point stadium through 9 votes to 5.  But that is not to say the Liberals get everything their own way, for instance having their legislation to wind up greyhound racing referred to an inquiry.

This year sees just two Legislative Council contests, being the first defence for independent Dean Harriss in Huon and likewise for Liberal Jo Palmer in Rosevears.  

Seat Profile

Rosevears (see map) is situated on the west Tamar in northern Tasmania. It includes much of western and central Launceston and the towns of Beaconsfield, Legana, Exeter and Beauty Point.  Industries outside the urban area include tourism, mining and vineyards.

Rosevears was created as a new division out of parts of various pre-existing divisions in the 1999 redistribution.  Sitting MLC Ray Bailey was allocated to the division when it was formed but retired in 2002.  Prominent former radio announcer Kerry Finch, a left-wing independent, held the seat without serious challenge for three terms.  The seat is mostly an expanded version of the former division of Cornwall, which always returned independents except for electing one Liberal between 1942 and 1951.  One of the independents, Mac Le Fevre (member from 1978-1984) was a former Labor lower house MP.  

The seat got another Liberal MP in 2020 when Jo Palmer won by just 260 votes against then independent Janie Finlay.  So much water has flowed under King's Bridge since that Finlay has now been elected to the Lower House three times as a Labor candidate and is now Labor's Deputy Leader.  In scenes like a Sydney teal seat, Finlay's campaign was so successful (just not quite successful enough!) that Labor polled a miserable 9.1% in third place - and the Labor candidate Jess Greene was hardly a bad pick; she has since gone on to join Finlay as state MP for Bass.

At the 2025 state election, with an adjustment of the booths for non-booth votes, I estimate the Liberal Party polled 43.3% in Rosevears, Labor 25.8%, the Greens 17.6%, independent George Razay 3.4% and the Shooters Fishers and Farmers 3.3% and the rest went to the latest Tasmanian Nationals flopfest and to ungrouped independents.  The Greens won the Trevallyn booth, always a strong one for them, with 35.1% and beat Labor in a few others.  Labor won the Beauty Point booth with a similar vote and the Liberals won all the rest, approaching or exceeding 50 in the Legana/Riverside booths which have a high bible belt component.  

Incumbent

Jo Palmer (Facebook, Instagram) is the Liberal incumbent since winning the slightly COVID-delayed August 2020 election by the closest LegCo seat margin in 21 years (or since).  Prior to politics Palmer was best known - to household name standards - as a former Southern Cross (now Seven) Tasmania newsreader and journalist, and also as a charity worker and former Tasmanian of the Year.  The frequency of said station's alumni winning seats has led to many jokes about the "Southern Cross faction" in the party room.  My 2020 guide contained the following dubiously relevant addendum: "In the celebrity trivia department I note that Palmer is a former Miss Tasmania and Miss Australia 1993, that she is Lyons Labor MHA Jen Butler's sister-in-law and that she is the parent of a Dancing With The Stars house dancer. "  Palmer's husband Andrew is a Launceston City Councillor.

Palmer is currently Minister for Education, Minister for Children and Youth and Minister for Disability Services.  She has also held other portfoilios including Primary Industries and Water and also Women.  She was promoted to the front bench in April 2022.  Palmer has not been involved in any personal controversies in her term, but see the Education section under Issues below.  Palmer featured in a nationally viral episode known as the Sportsgirl pants saga after a question from a journalist about her wardrobe choices went to air.  Her handling of the question was praised while the journo's turned out to be an unlucky hot mic moment.  

(Note: candidates may contact me once only to request a change to the link their name goes to, or additional links which will be added, or not, at my discretion and subject to my time. They may absolutely not send me long emails of bio or waffle at the same time.    I will be mostly offline during mid to late April.  No other changes will be made on request except to correct clear factual errors, and I reserve the right not to correct errors caused by a candidate failing to keep their linkedin up to date, and certainly won't remove any link to a outdated linkedin.  Any differences in the length of different candidate sections reflect differences in amount of available/(in my view) interesting material; candidate sections tend to be longer when candidates have past electoral form.)

Challengers (3)

To my knowledge all candidates live within Rosevears; if I find out otherwise a note will be added accordingly.

Ben Mckinnon (Facebook, Instagram, candidacy announcement) is the endorsed Labor candidate.  Mckinnon has been a teacher in the Launceston area for nearly 20 years, including at Longford Primary where he currently teaches music and PE, and previously Brooks High.  He has also been a case manager at City Misson and "a Social Inclusion Officer delivering employment programs", and is a musician who has toured nationally playing original indie/folk style music.  I have not found any evidence of any previous political forays.  In an interesting Easter post Mckinnon, who is clearly a Christian, acknowledged "heroes who have shaped my thinking and heart": "MLK, C.S. Lewis, J.R.R. Tolkien, Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, and John Smith" and also went on to give a long list of local heroes including Finlay, who is strongly promoting his campaign.  

Charlene McLennan (Facebook, Instagram, candidacy announcement) is the endorsed Greens candidate.  McLennan was the party's candidate for Bass at the 2025 federal election, polling 12.9% (the party's third highest vote in the seat behind the pulp mill days of 2007-10).  She was also the party's #2 candidate for Bass at the state election and polled 871 votes.  McLennan is a family lawyer and mediator with a background according to one firm in "family law, property, and wills and estates" and having also earlier represented children in refuges and displaced women.  While living in Dorrigo NSW she served with the NSW Rural Fire Service in the 2019-20 Black Summer fires and was also affected by the 2013 Dunalley fire.  Her personal Facebook page appeals to my sensibilities by referencing owls and tea.  

Susan Monson, an independent, is a registered candidate with the TEC since 31/3/2026 and becomes the first prospective candidate to become first known to me by that method.  Early in the campaign any other evidence of campaign activity was difficult to find.  Monson is co-owner of Monson Construction. I have found some Facebook comments by her (the most informative one of which I can summarise as 'my kids should get free stuff from the government' - national parks access and sporting insurance specifically) but at the time her profile was locked.  Finally a Facebook page appeared on April 10 and I understand she also has some signs and has appeared in some candidate forums (but not the ABC's).

Rumours

There was an on-off unsubstantiated rumour linking Launceston Mayor Matthew Garwood to a run for the seat, which he wouldn't have to quit the mayoralty to pursue.  As of 7 April I hadn't seen this one for a while, and it evidently didn't happen.  

Issues

Issues noted on the campaign trail will be listed here.  This list is not comprehensive or in order and issues may be added over time.  The presence of an item on the list does not necessarily mean it will sway votes, only that it is being talked about.  Leon Compton's debate between the candidates can be heard here.

1. Education: When it's teacher vs Education Minister as the major party candidates expect to hear a lot about how the government and the Minister are going on Tasmania's education system, which has attracted opprobrium in recent years for dire post Year 10 retention rates.  Palmer's performance as Education Minister has come under sustained attack from education unionists and also questions about the extent to which she is being consulted.  The Australian Education Union recorded a no confidence vote in Palmer's performance and also released comments from principals about proposed Multi=School Organisations while Palmer has challenged claims that the state is doing terribly.

2. Stadium: Rosevears is in Bass and Bass hates the stadium, largely because it is to be built south of Oatlands.  The stadium has been passed with bipartisan support but there remains the issue of how to deal with cost blowouts down the track.  While rage may have faded in the face of futility, the Greens do have the advantage here since both of the majors voted for it.

3. Budget: While I haven't seen much sign of budgetary debate in Rosevears yet, the dire state of Tasmania's debt levels and what exactly should be done about them is bound to surface during the campaign.  

4. Cost of living: Inescapable again with Donald Trump starting a war nobody understands that briefly sent petrol to $2.50 before fuel excise cuts brought it down somewhat (indeed later in the campaign it seems back to normal).  The government has announced free public transport until mid-year.  

5. Greyhounds:  The government's greyhound racing ban (which scores well in opinion polling but is criticised by Labor and the industry as a breach of pre-election commitments) comes up for a vote soon after the election.  The government appears to be struggling for numbers amid concerns about the process. and hence deferred the vote.  The Greens also support banning greyhound racing but Labor and Monson do not.  Mckinnon has said he has heard very little about the issue on the doors while Palmer says she has encountered plenty of views both ways.  

6. Local Infrastructure: There is a lot of discussion of local infrastructure issues between the candidates from about 1:14 here.

Campaign

Campaign style issues and incidents may be noted here.  During a visit to Rosevears in early March Palmer was certainly first out of the blocks in the corflute wars; her posters were everywhere including even deepest greenest Trevallyn.   However I have now heard that Mckinnon is also established in said suburb as well as the usual Greens signs.  

The major party candidates' Facebook pages are pretty positive with few political attacks, with Palmer's mainly focusing on local community and announceables and Mckinnon's profiling "local legends" he encounters on the rounds.  

Prospects

Rosevears is a very Liberal-friendly seat but this didn't stop it electing Finch for three terms, with attempts to blast him out based on his voting record failing dismally.  It was a cracking contest to replace him but either Palmer or Finlay would have beaten anybody but each other easily, and the seat's notionally very marginal status from 2020 is meaningless now.  

Finlay had the advantage then of being an indie, which is a bigger thing in the north of the state than the south, and she also had a massive profile.  Which raises the question of how there is no significant independent running for this seat this time as of four weeks out.  Despite one commenter's hope that somebody would "clone Ruth Forrest" I suspect potential indies have given running against Jo Palmer a miss because they don't think they can beat her.  Labor are giving it a go but they're deep underdogs here and, strikingly, haven't won a LegCo seat in the north with an endorsed candidate since 1952.   (Silvia Smith served one term in Windermere as "Independent Labor").  Kerry Finch makes an interesting case that Labor can yet win his old seat based on the burdens of education and the stadium and the absence of the Gutwein effect.  

More comments may be added later. 

Tasmania Redistribution: The Reaction

Yesterday the AEC released public feedback on the proposed radical redistribution as previously covered here (Draft Scraps The Franklin Divide).  Frankly I thought there might be more complaints than there were, but some of those that there are are pretty punchy.  Of the 90 distinct submissions received, exactly half by my count discussed the proposed boundaries at all, and of these I counted 14 as purely supporting the proposal (one or two noting some initial reluctance in doing so) and 31 objecting, nearly all of these proposing something substantially different if they proposed anything at all.

Predictably the most common objections concerned the condition of Lyons and especially the placement of Glenorchy in it.  Objectors raised Glenorchy's disconnection from the bulk of Lyons through the inclusion of Brighton in Franklin, argued that neo-Lyons was thematically incoherent, complained about the severing of Glenorchy from Greater Hobart and also objected to rural Tasmania being fragmented into majority urban seats.  Submission 34 by Mark James is a good representative of the objections:

"Under the proposed model, rural/regional voters will be outnumbered by city voters in all five electorates. There is no community of interest at all between Glenorchy, Sheffield, and St. Helens. - For a state with a famously decentralised population, in which the majority of the population live outside the capital city, voters in the capital city will form the bulk of three out of five electorates."

Similarly, some submissions objected to the placement of Brighton or at least the whole thereof in Franklin on the grounds of it having stronger links to the southern midlands (in my view this is true of the Brighton part but not so much of the Bridgewater/Gagebrook part).  

A different objection in a small number of submissions was the position of Break O'Day in neo-Lyons as the only east coast touching council.  Some submissions preferred Break O'Day to go into Bass with the whole of Meander Valley LGA including Prospect Vale and Blackstone Heights remaining in Lyons.  This new Lyons would be virtually landlocked, touching the Derwent foreshore in Glenorchy but not reaching the actual sea as such anywhere. I certainly wouldn't be going there for any seashell collecting trips.  

Submission 83 by Aussies Elect raises a point also raised here in comments - some issues are caused by the weird boundaries of Southern Midlands if that council becomes the Lyons boundary.  In the area of Runnymede, Southern Midlands crosses the Tasman Highway, meaning that as one goes from Orford to Sorell and vice versa, the highway will briefly pass from Franklin to Lyons and then back to Franklin again.  Furthermore, the Southern Midlands boundary cuts Richmond (currently in Lyons) off Colebrook and Campania in the Coal River Valley.  If one is willing to break up LGAs then there's an opportunity here to expand the new Franklin in this area and in the process keep the northern part of Glamorgan-Spring Bay in Lyons.  

Local government areas often don't like being split between electorates and this redistribution process has made me wonder about the extent to which the tail wags the dog.  Why are Tasmania's local government boundaries like they are (in some cases I suspect the answer is about rates bases) and should LGA boundaries be adaptive to the needs of the federal boundary process rather than the other way around?  Anyway the Redistribution Committee can only work with what there is.

By far the most common suggested solution to the Lyons problem was to put Glenorchy into Franklin and keep the east coast in Lyons.  Those supporting this stressed that while this solution crosses the Derwent, the divide is nothing like the existing Franklin divide in that Glenorchy and Clarence are connected directly by at least one bridge (depending on exact boundaries) and there is significant direct commuting between the two, unlike the existing Franklin divide where the only connections with any real level of usage pass through Clark.

A minority supported putting Derwent Valley into Clark (see my comments on this in the "Clark extends up the river" section of my first article), which provides scope for maintaining more of Kingborough in the current Franklin.  I detected basically no support for the minimal change option of moving Clark further south into Kingborough, suggesting that most objectors realise this is a problem but prefer a different solution to the one found.

There were a number of eccentric proposals.  I'm not going to go through those in detail for cases where the submission doesn't realise this is a federal redistribution, hasn't noticed the number of seats is fixed at five, or is barely comprehensible.   (In at least one case the AEC seemed confused whether the submission actually referred to the boundaries or just the seat names).  However it was disappointing to see some people supporting putting Huon Valley and in cases parts of Kingborough into Lyons without noticing that these areas are essentially disconnected from the rest of Lyons with the connecting bushland having only one significant unsealed link road through it.  

The Glenorchy submission (72) caused serious threats to my Panadol supply and includes a bizarre example "contiguous Franklin" alternative in which in order to keep Glenorchy in the same seat as most of Hobart City and move Kingborough into Clark, a substantial chunk of inner Hobart political greenery is donated to Lyons, becoming an urban exclave and also meaning that to remain in Clark while commuting from Glenorchy to the remaining Hobart City part of it you would have to undertake a 13.5 km bushwalk from Tolosa St to Old Farm Road peaking at around 1120 m near Big Bend.   (Looks like a rather good walk actually).  If this submission was actually entirely written by humans then they've passed a reverse Turing test with flying colours (sorry this is not a compliment; hat tip to a colleague who suggested that it looked partially AI written.)

In terms of the draft redistribution proposal (as distinct from the daft redistribution proposals in some of the submissions) the Greens and Labor have supported it. The Liberals have opposed it without making further comment on any particular alternative.  Sorell Council has supported the proposal while Glenorchy, Break O'Day, Southern Midlands, Brighton and Central Highlands are objecting.  I am surprised more councils did not make submissions.

Meanwhile, readers of this site continue to have a positive view of the draft proposal.

Many new names were suggested for Franklin especially but I wasn't wildly enthused by the suggestions.  It just doesn't seem that there's anything near a community consensus on an individual with a strong link to the proposed new Franklin whose contribution is such as to deserve an electorate named after them.  Some submitters suggested calling the proposed Clark Franklin and vice versa, but this involves transplanting the name Clark to an area it entirely doesn't cover at the present (always best avoided if possible).  

What next?

There is now a phase in which people can reply to the submissions.  Following that the Augmented Electoral Commission (which adds the Chair and the non-judicial member of the AEC to the existing Redistribution Committee of two AEC and two non-AEC staff) can make a decision, and can hold public hearings prior to doing so if it wishes.  In the event that it now wished to switch from the initial proposal to one that was substantially different (such as Glenorchy into Franklin instead of the east coast) then there would be likely to be another round of ideas submission on the current proposal.  

Legislative Council Voting Patterns 2022-6

In the leadup to the 2026 Legislative Council elections for Huon and Rosevears (link TBA when I've written it) this article is my annual review of voting patterns on divisions in the upper house in the previous four years.  But before I get into it, I need to deal with some methods nerdery at the start.

Shy Division Losing

Some Labor MLCs aren't particularly fond of my findings, and they were especially defensive about a stat that in the small sample added to the mix last year Labor had voted with the Liberal Government 90% of the time.  (Fear not, in this year's sample it is 86%).  This even led to an attempt on election night live TV to shoot down (but not shag or marry) my methods in which it was falsely claimed that if there were thirty divisions on a single Bill I would include them all in my assessment.  Fortunately the incorrect claim has since been retracted.  

What in particular the Labor MLCs do not like goes to an unfortunate quirk of the LegCo's standing orders. When votes are called for on a motion they are initially taken on the voices.  The President or whoever is in the chair at the time declares a provisional result, eg "I think the ayes have it".  At this point someone can call for a division - but only if they are voting on the side that lost the call on the voices.  

In a case where the Government has no friends on a vote they might vote one way on the voices, but then not bother having that vote recorded to avoid embarrassment.  And in this case, while Labor voted the other way, there is nothing Labor can do here to cause a division such that them voting on the other side shows up in my figures.  This does sometimes happen, though no evidence that it happens often has been presented.  (I had thought this was in contrast to federal parliament because of something that happened in the same-sex marriage vote, but was mistaken - see comments.)

South Australia Postcount 2026: Finniss

FINNISS (Lib vs ALP 6.7%, Lib vs IND 0.7%)

David Basham (Lib) vs Lou Nicholson (IND) 

Nicholson wins from fourth position on primaries.  Unprecedented in state and federal elections

(Link to tallyboard thread)

The Victor Harbour/Goolwa seat of Finniss sees a similarly messy count to Kavel with four candidates with currently very similar primary votes, as I start this thread with the prepoll not yet in and sadly only 33.1% of enrolment counted.  It may be very different after prepoll and it was very different in 2022.  On the night Lou Nicholson was on 54.7% 2CP vs Basham and the doubt seemed to be would she make the final two or not.  She ended up making the final two but very poor numbers on prepolls and absents resulted in Basham winning (just) 50.7-49.3.  Now, the rematch ...

As with Kavel this is another seat where nobody has a quarter of the primary vote.  Currently One Nation's Greg Powell (23.6%) leads Basham by six votes, with Nicholson on 20.5% and Phoebe Redington (ALP) on 17.6%.  The Greens have 7.2% and the top of the ballot paper, and have recommended preferences to Nicholson.  The others are Bron Lewis (a tealish sounding independent on 4.3%), Animal Justice 1.6%, Aus Family 1.2% Fair Go 0.4%.  

South Australia Postcount 2026: Hammond (And Ngadjuri)

Hammond (Lib 5.1%)
Robert Roylance (ON) vs Simone Bailey (ALP) vs Adrian Pederick (Lib)
Roylance expected to win

(Link to tallyboard thread)

The rural lower Murray seat of Hammond was one of those that stood out in pre-election modelling as being a seat on a relatively low Liberal vs ALP margin but nonetheless being apparently fertile ground for One Nation.  And this looks like this is how things have panned out.  As I start this article Simone Bailey (Labor) holds a thin lead with 27.5% over Robert Roylance (One Nation) on 27.0% with incumbent Adrian Pederick in third on 22.1%.  The most significant preference source is independent Airlie Keen on 10.4%.  Keen ran competitively in 2022 but there has been a large swing against her with the rise of One Nation.  The rest: the Greens 4.5% Legalise Cannabis 3.3% FF 1.9% Animal Justice 1.4% Lucas Hope (IND) 1.0% Aus Family 0.5% United Voice 0.4% Fair Go 0.1%.  Yes there is a candidate in this seat who actually at present has 27 votes, their presence on the ballot paper probably costing thousands of dollars in staffing costs.

South Australia Postcount 2026: Kavel

KAVEL (Retiring IND vs Lib 25.4, notional Liberal vs ALP 3.5)

Matt Schultz (IND) vs David Leach (ALP) vs Bradley Orr (Lib) - Schultz expected to win

Link back to summary page

Sunday 22nd 11:50am: I really wanted to wait til the prepolls were in before unrolling postcount threads for the messy seats, because prepolls often put scenarios to bed.  But as it's taking a while to get there on Sunday, I will start the Kavel thread before that point (and probably the Finniss one too) and if things do later simplify then this is at least a time capsule of how insane this seat looked.  

The problem with the Mt Barker / Adelaide Hills seat is simple; nobody has any votes.  The succession war for the former conservative Liberal turned indie/Speaker/Minister Dan Cregan has produced a splatter of primaries with nobody with even a quarter of the vote (I'm wondering if this is some kind of record for a mainland state seat if it persists).  With just 39.5% of enrolment counted, Labor's David Leach leads on 23.9%, Cregan's nominal successor Matt Schultz has 20.7%, Christiaan Loch of One Nation has 19.7% and the Liberals' Bradley Orr has 17.3%.  The Greens have 12.8% and the detritus (ballot clutter makes good snail food) is Family First 1.7% Animal Justice 1.6% Real Change 1.1% Australian Family 0.5% Jacob van Raalte (IND) 0.5% and Fair Go 0.2%.  

South Australia 2026: Postcount Summary, Links Hub and Basic 2CP Contests

SEATS WON ALP 34 Lib 5 ON 4 IND 4

Seats covered

Finniss (Liberal) - Liberal vs One Nation vs IND, IND has won from fourth

Kavel (IND vacancy) - Labor vs IND vs One Nation, IND stayed in top two and won easily

Hammond (Liberal) - ON win staying in top two and beating Labor on preferences

Heysen (Liberal) - Liberal vs ALP or Green, Greens narrowly missed final two with Liberal defeating Labor (Liberal probably would have won anyway)

Light (Labor) - close but Labor win

Mackillop (notional Liberal) - One Nation narrow win over Liberal

Narungga (IND) - One Nation appears to have very narrowly won subject to recount.

Morphett (Liberal) - narrow Labor win

Ngadjuri  One Nation win.  

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL  4 ALP 3 ON 2 Lib 1 Green,  ALP currently strongly leads for final seat.