Griffith: Sound And Fury, Signifying Little

(With federal polling comments added Feb 11)

Of all the comments about the result of yesterday's Griffith by-election (won by Labor's Terri Butler but with a small swing to the Coalition) the one I liked best was the comment by Antony Green - that we would probably talk about the result for a day and then move on.  It might be just a bit longer than that, but in case it isn't, today's that day and here's my contribution.

By-elections are noted for often producing crazy swings and aberrantly strong results for minor-party candidates but this one is notable for the modest nature of all the party swings.  Not a single party contesting the election saw a swing exceeding 2% in either direction in its primary vote.  The LNP has currently gained 1.35% (although I expect this figure to increase slightly), Labor has currently lost 1.38% (this may also increase) and the Greens have currently gained 0.01% (this could become a small loss).  These small swings are against the backdrop of a slight change in the opposing candidate mix - the Palmer United Party which polled over 3% in the general election did not contest, while the Pirate Party is sitting in fourth place on 1.55%, having not contested this (or any other lower house) seat at the general election.  (A note in passing on the various fourth party attempts: while none were able to crack even 2%, it's interesting that the Pirates more than doubled their Senate vote from the same electorate last year while Katter's Australian Party could barely improve on theirs, even in the absence of Palmer United.)