Basem Abdo (ALP) vs Carly Moore (IND)
Abdo leading on primary votes during preference distribution
I should have given Calwell its own page from the start but the unique nature of the count was not so obvious from the early primary figures which I covered on the seats where indies may make the final two page. On the day after the election it was obvious that the very low major party primaries in a huge field in Calwell created an in-theory chance that independent ex-Labor mayor Carly Moore could get into the top two. However soon after that, another independent, Joseph Youhana, surged, creating a unique situation where even a three-candidate preferred count was of no use as it could not be known for sure which independent (if either though very likely one of them will) would make the final three. The AEC now has a distribution of preferences page up. This is a familiar process to Tasmanian audiences as the TEC routinely does this for Legislative Council elections where stuff like this happens (OK that was an extreme case, only four candidates have won from third in LegCo history), but a new thing for federal elections.
The primaries in Calwell are:
Ghani (Lib) 15.7
Moore (IND) 11.94
Youhana (IND) 10.73
Garcha (GRN) 8.29
