2PP Aggregate 52.4 to Labor vs Coalition (term low, -0.8 since last week)
Shadow-2PP 52.9 to Labor vs One Nation (-0.6 since last week)
Labor would win election"held now" but most likely with only a small majority
This is my usual annual post about federal voting intention polling after the Budget, plus a summary of what's been happening in the months leading up.
The briefest summary of what happened in the months leading up is "not much". In terms of my Labor vs Coalition two-party preferred aggregate, Labor dipped down to the high 52s in mid-January (off not a lot of polling at the time) but got back above 54 during Coalition leadership tensions in early February. Since Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley Labor's 2PP has bobbed around the 53s with no real evidence of signal.
