ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. YES THE LORD'S PRAYER SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE TASMANIAN PARLIAMENT, IF YOU WANT A RELIGIOUS OBSERVANCE AT THE START OF EVERY SITTING DAY HAVE ONE TO THE CLUE FAIRY INSTEAD.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
Tasmania Doesn't Swing With The Nation Like It Used To
Thursday, September 23, 2021
Poll Roundup: Why Is Resolve Diverging?
I last wrote a federal poll roundup in early August. At that time I noted that the implied 2PP polling numbers of Newspoll, Morgan, Essential and Resolve this year had been more or less identical. No new Essential voting intention polling has been seen since mid-July though another dump may appear within days.
This is what we've seen since the last roundup:
* Newspoll (late August) 54-46 to Labor (Coalition 36 Labor 40 Green 10 PHON 3 others 11)
* Newspoll (mid-Sept) 53-47 to Labor (Coalition 37 Labor 38 Green 10 PHON 3 others 12)
* Morgan (mid-August) 54-46 to Labor (Coalition 37.5 Labor 37.5 Green 12.5 PHON 3.5 others 9)
* Morgan (late August) 54.5-45.5 to Labor (Coalition 37.5 Labor 38.5 Green 11.5 PHON 3 others 9.5)
* Morgan (mid-Sept) 52.5-47.5 to Labor (Coalition 38.5 Labor 35 Green 13 PHON 3 others 10.5)
* Resolve (mid-August) Coalition 40 Labor 32 Green 12 PHON 2 IND 10 others 3. Last election 2PP would be very roughly 50-50 (my formula gives 50.3 to Labor)
* Resolve (mid-Sept) Coalition 39 Labor 31 Green 10 PHON 4 IND 9 others 7. Last election 2PP would be very roughly 51-49 to Coalition (my formula gives 51.1)
Now, it's true that Morgan's use of respondent preferences is inflating its leads for Labor (in the last three polls by an average of 0.9 points compared to last election preferences). And it could be that the independent voters being (over-)reported by Resolve are actually much more left-leaning than the ones who split about 60-40 to Labor on preferences at the last election. But still, one of these polls is very clearly not like the others. Resolve has shown two consecutive Coalition primary leads of 8% while polls by other pollsters have had an average lead of minus 0.5. Two Resolve polls in a row have come out as massive, beyond margin-of-error outliers.