Montgomery: CALLED 8:30 pm Hiscutt (Lib) retains
Nelson: CALLED 4:45 pm Tues Webb (IND) defeats Street on preferences by a large margin
Pembroke: CALLED 8:37 pm Siejka (ALP) retains
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Showing posts with label Jo Siejka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jo Siejka. Show all posts
Saturday, May 4, 2019
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Legislative Council 2019: Pembroke
PEMBROKE (ALP vs Lib 7.45% - pre-redistribution by-election margin)
Incumbent: Jo Siejka (ALP)
Welcome to the second of my three Legislative Council guide pages this year. The one for the most interesting-looking contest, the Nelson vacancy, has been doing business for some time, and the guide for Montgomery is now up too. I will be updating my voting patterns assessment as well but am waiting for the upcoming session to complete in view of the lack of data in the last 12 months so far, so I expect to do that update in the third week of April. [EDIT: I ran out of time to do this before the election!]
And there will be live coverage here of all three seats on the night of the election, expected to be Saturday May 4th.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates, campaign information, added candidates and changed assessments.
(Note: candidates may contact me once only to request a change to the link their name goes to, or additional links which will be added, or not, at my discretion. No other changes will be made on request except to correct clear factual errors. Candidates are welcome to comment in the comment section. Differences in the length of different candidate sections reflect differences in amount of available/(in my view) interesting material.)
Incumbent: Jo Siejka (ALP)
Welcome to the second of my three Legislative Council guide pages this year. The one for the most interesting-looking contest, the Nelson vacancy, has been doing business for some time, and the guide for Montgomery is now up too. I will be updating my voting patterns assessment as well but am waiting for the upcoming session to complete in view of the lack of data in the last 12 months so far, so I expect to do that update in the third week of April. [EDIT: I ran out of time to do this before the election!]
And there will be live coverage here of all three seats on the night of the election, expected to be Saturday May 4th.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates, campaign information, added candidates and changed assessments.
(Note: candidates may contact me once only to request a change to the link their name goes to, or additional links which will be added, or not, at my discretion. No other changes will be made on request except to correct clear factual errors. Candidates are welcome to comment in the comment section. Differences in the length of different candidate sections reflect differences in amount of available/(in my view) interesting material.)
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Pembroke By-Election: Live And/Or Post-Count
CALLED: Reliable scrutineering reports on Sunday that Siejka (ALP) will win easily with Walker narrowly beating Chipman for 2nd.
Sunday
Analysis: Still awaiting margins for the two scenarios. As Brad Stansfield has said on Twitter, it's a bit much to be saying first that the Liberals' attack on Chipman wouldn't work at all, then after the result that it worked too well. But if working means getting near winning, it was only a pyrrhic success. It seems that far from generate a sympathy vote for Chipman, the tactic actually worked in driving votes away from him and to Walker, but at the cost of driving Chipman preferences (in droves as predicted by Pete Lawler on Twitter last night) and possibly primaries to Siejka. The Liberals needed to make the final two to have any on-paper chance, but did they cause enough voters to switch their preference from Chipman ahead of Siejka to the other way around to the extent that they caused Siejka rather than Chipman to win ?
Sunday
Analysis: Still awaiting margins for the two scenarios. As Brad Stansfield has said on Twitter, it's a bit much to be saying first that the Liberals' attack on Chipman wouldn't work at all, then after the result that it worked too well. But if working means getting near winning, it was only a pyrrhic success. It seems that far from generate a sympathy vote for Chipman, the tactic actually worked in driving votes away from him and to Walker, but at the cost of driving Chipman preferences (in droves as predicted by Pete Lawler on Twitter last night) and possibly primaries to Siejka. The Liberals needed to make the final two to have any on-paper chance, but did they cause enough voters to switch their preference from Chipman ahead of Siejka to the other way around to the extent that they caused Siejka rather than Chipman to win ?
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Legislative Council 2017: Pembroke By-Election
This is my preview article for the by-election for the Legislative Council seat of Pembroke. Incumbent Vanessa Goodwin resigned the seat today, Monday 2 October, and already we have two declared candidates, one possible candidate and at least one party likely to endorse a candidate. The by-election will be held on Saturday November 4, with nominations closing on October 12 and announced the next day. The winner will have the seat for just 18 months before they will need to defend it. (I am unsure yet if I will have live coverage of this by-election on the night, as it clashes with a field trip.)
My most recent piece about the voting balance in the Legislative Council was here, but since that was written, Labor's Sarah Lovell unseated "independent liberal" Tony Mulder in Rumney. As a result, three Labor MLCs and four left-wing independents now have a blocking majority in the Legislative Council. Throw in a couple of relatively centrist MLCs who only vote with the government a shade more often than not, and the government is having great trouble getting its most contentious legislation through. It's not all doom, gloom and obstruction for them though, with a bill to speed up the kunanyi/Mt Wellington cable car assessment process recently sailing through with only one vote against.
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