2025 Tasmanian Postcount: Braddon

 BRADDON (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 IND)

(At Election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Nat 1 IND)

SEATS WON (CALLED) 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND

SEAT WINNERS: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Gavin Pearce (Lib), Felix Ellis (Lib), Roger Jaensch (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP), Craig Garland (IND)

SEAT LOST: Miriam Beswick (Nat)

Liberal gain from National

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts as written

2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

This is my Braddon electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Braddon (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 IND, at election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND 1 Nat). 

North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone

Regional/rural/remote

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

2024 Tasmanian Postcount: Braddon

BRADDON (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)
Notional 2021 7-seat result 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND or 5-2

SEATS WON 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 
CALLED WINNERS Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Felix Ellis (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP), Roger Jaensch (Lib), Miriam Beswick (JLN)
EXPECTED: Craig Garland (IND) to beat Giovanna Simpson (Lib) after preferences.  Greens eliminated.

Caution: The Braddon count involves some complicated if seemingly unlikely scenarios, this postcount is rated Wonk Factor 4/5

(Links to other seat postcount pages Bass  Clark Franklin Lyons Summary)

INTRODUCTORY NOTE: What Is Leakage?

Leakage is very important in the Braddon result.  Leakage occurs when a candidate is excluded or elected and some of their votes instead of flowing to other candidates within their party flow to candidates from outside the party or exhaust.  Parties are more prone to leakage when they have candidates who are way over quota or when they have several candidates to be excluded with substantial vote numbers between them.  Independents cannot leak and will often gain on parties through the count.  

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

 This is the Braddon electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Braddon (Currently 3 Liberal 2 Labor). 

North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone

Regional/rural/remote

2021 Tasmanian Postcount: Braddon

(Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)

BRADDON (2018 result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)

SEAT RESULT 3 Liberal 2 Labor 

CALLED ELECTED: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP)

WITHIN PARTY CONTEST (Liberal): Adam Brooks extremely likely to win, Roger Jaensch vs Felix Ellis for third Liberal seat.  Expecting formal confirmation soon that Brooks and Jaensch have won.   (UPDATE: confirmed)

In Braddon there is nearly 84% counted.  The Liberals have 3.42 quotas, Labor has 1.6, the Greens 0.32, the Shooters 0.23 and Craig Garland has 0.37 (6%) and has beaten the Greens again!  Jeremy Rockliff has topped the poll, of course, and currently has 1.74 quotas.  

2021 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

 This is the Braddon electorate guide for the 2021 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2021 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.

Braddon (Currently 3 Liberal 2 Labor). 

North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone

Regional/rural/remote

2018 Tasmania Postcount: Braddon

Braddon 3 Liberal 2 Labor
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP) 
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win 
(Update: Jaensch has won)

Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start!  In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014.  The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win.  Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland.  Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate.  Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.

2018 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Braddon

This is my Braddon electorate guide for the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2018 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)

Braddon (Currently 4 Liberal 1 Labor). 
North-west and western Tasmania including Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone
Regional/rural/remote

Declared Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates is large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

The order of the parties for Braddon is Liberal, T4T, Labor, SFF, Greens, JLN, Ungrouped