ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. LET 2026 BE THE YEAR VICTORIA IS FINALLY FREED OF THE CURSE OF GROUP TICKET VOTING. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.
Thursday, October 24, 2024
The Commonest Arguments For OPV Are Overrated
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Queensland 2020: Final Results And Poll Accuracy
Queensland: ALP 52 LNP 34 KAP 3 GREEN 2 PHON 1 IND 1
2PP Estimate 53.13% to Labor (+1.9% from 2017)
Another Queensland election is over. In 2017 I wrote that the 2017 election had been "one where a great many dramatic things could have happened, but virtually none of them did", and in some ways this one has been similar. Nonetheless, the Queensland election has again thrown up more than its fair share of electoral curiosities.
Historic patterns
This election yet again showed that state and federal politics are fundamentally different and that projecting state elections from federal elections (just because it's easy) is false consciousness. The 2PP result was over eleven points different from the 2019 federal election in Queensland.
In the leadup to the election I was curious about whether not being in government federally should provide an ongoing boost to the Palaszczuk Government so I wrote this. Based on the age of this Queensland government and the fact that Labor is in opposition federally, the average expected result was a net gain of 2.5 seats. The actual result, after two very close seat wins and one close loss, was a four-seat gain, so very close to the historic expectation. The government was helped, perhaps decisively, by the pro-incumbency mood during COVID-19, but had also had some wear and tear during the term. By election day the government was polling very well in terms of personal approvals of Annastacia Palaszczuk and which party was best to handle the economy, and it seems these polls were telling us something the voting intention polls were not.
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Not Again: Oppositions That Went Backwards Twice In A Row
A rare form of failure that normally happens about once a decade has happened on the conservative side of Australian politics at two elections in the space of two weeks. In both the Queensland and the ACT elections, the official Opposition went backwards in seat share for the second election contested as such in a row. (To be clear about what counts here, Victoria 2018 is not the same thing, since in 2014 the Liberals had contested the Victorian election as the incumbent government - both elections must be contested from opposition to qualify.) Such a rare event happening to two Oppositions right now might be considered as a sign of how hard life is for Oppositions during the COVID-19 pandemic, or it might also be argued that the two Oppositions in question were unusually hopeless. In one case (Queensland) there are also some special factors at play. Anyway, such an event is so unusual that I thought it would be interesting to list all the cases I have found since 1900 of it happening, whether at federal, state or territory level. I have not found any case of an Opposition going backwards at three elections as the Opposition in a row.
Sunday, November 1, 2020
Queensland 2020 Postcount
Labor re-elected with increased majority
Seat total after recounts ALP 52 LNP 34 KAP 3 GRN 2 PHON 1 IND 1
Labor won Bundaberg and Nicklin after recounts.
LNP has won Currumbin
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Queensland 2020 Live
Friday, October 30, 2020
Queensland 2020: Rolling Final Days Roundup
I'll be covering the Queensland election here on election night and in detail throughout the postcount, though on some days I may be busy with other things during the day.
Another Queensland election count is a day and a bit away and there's a distinct lack of data for the usual polling aggregation/modelling type game, so I've decided to start a rolling roundup article which will cover a number of possible themes. When new polls appear - assuming they do - new sections covering them will be posted at the top of the article. I also have a new article in The Guardian. I should clarify that I didn't speak to any of the nameless insiders personally, and was going off other media reports. There were reports since I filed that one that unnamed Labor insiders were more confident yesterday because internal polls had supposedly shown an uptick following one of those debates that nobody much watches. This narrative was gleefully and even gullibly snapped up by Sky, perhaps because it was useful for attacking Gladys Berejiklian. The NSW Premier will doubtless be scapegoated in the event of an LNP loss even if there is nothing special in the early/late voting history to justify such a charge.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
The Queensland Poll Drought Is Finally Over
Note added 16 Oct: The Newspoll just out is virtually identical to the YouGov poll below so I have nothing to add to this article on its behalf, save that it is not just one poll saying this now, but two by the same company, and with much less time remaining. It should be noted though that the Greens primary is down 1% on the YouGov poll, which makes the 52-48 2PP off those primaries rather than 51-49 seem more tenuous, especially with the information that the UAP is polling something in the Others tray.
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YouGov 2PP 52-48 to Labor
Projected seat result if this poll is accurate: ALP win, but majority status touch and go (approx ALP 48-9 LNP 37 KAP 3 Green 2-3 ON 1 Ind 1 - almost no net change from 2017)
Over three months since the last, and less than four weeks til polls close, we finally have another public voting intention poll for the 2020 Queensland election. Finally, for a week at least, I will be able to scan social media in search of polling data in some peace without the Violent Femmes singing "WHY CAN'T I GET JUST ONE POLL?" or the Angels responding "AM I EVER GONNA SEE A POLL AGAIN?" in my head. The release of a rather large statewide YouGov sample that has Labor leading 52-48 finally gives me something to apply a statewide poll model to so I can talk about modelling and this election. Though in comparison to 2017, there's really nowhere near as much to say.
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Newspoll: The Sound Of Narratives Dying
This week's Newspoll results have included fresh approval ratings for Labor Premiers Daniel Andrews (Vic) and Annastacia Palaszczuk (Qld), along with a number of issues questions regarding handling of COVID-19. These are well worthy of comment - Victoria especially - along with some brief comments on less striking results (but strikingly if typically bad reporting) in federal Newspoll land.
Victoria
A widespread narrative in Victoria has been that Premier Daniel Andrews is severely on the nose and his Premiership is in crisis, either because of the second wave of COVID-19 in the state that resulted from avoidable quarantine failures on his watch, or from the severity of lockdowns deployed in response to (so far successfully) bring new case numbers down.
Victoria has recently seen public voting intention polling, finally, via a 51.5-48.5 lead in Roy Morgan Research's SMS polling. I am not a fan of SMS polls as a method (I think they are too prone to motivated response), and Morgan's recent state polls have a history of volatility and being rather inaccurate, but at least this is something. Also, ALP-linked campaigning firm Red Bridge has issued a 53.5-46.5 result for Labor. These results followed Liberal Party MediaReach polling that had the Liberals picking up massive swings in a group of Labor-held seats (which if applied statewide would see Labor losing), but this is the same firm that, for instance, had the Territory Alliance on course to be the largest party in the NT parliament (it won a single seat very narrowly). The internal poll also showed a rather heavy fall in the Greens vote, which seemed unlikely in the absence of anything that would cause it and given the general resilience of the Greens vote in recent elections (OK, except for Eden-Monaro.)
Sunday, September 20, 2020
Guardian debut
Just a very quick post to put up a prominent link to my debut article for The Guardian, a general preview of the Queensland election:
Queensland 2020 elections will be a test of state's COVID response
(This is a single commissioned piece, similar to commissioned pieces I have done in the past for other outlets, most frequently The Mercury. I thank the Guardian very much for their interest in my work.)
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Curiouser And Curiouser: Recent Queensland Poll And Poll-Shaped Objects Roundup
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Age And Canberra Are Still Killing State Governments
Advance Summary
1. One of the most important factors in state election outcomes is the influence of whether the governing party at state level is in Government or Opposition federally. To be the same party as the federal Government is a disadvantage.
2. Another important factor is the age of the state government, with governments tending to do worse the longer they have been in office.
3. In the last six years, all same-party state governments that have faced elections have lost seats in significant numbers.
4. In the meantime, two of the three opposite-party governments gained seats (though one very old opposite-party government was defeated, but with a 2PP swing to it.)
4. It might seem logical that if the federal government at one state election was the same as at the previous election for that state, then this factor would not generate further swings against an incumbent state government of the same party, or further protection for one of the opposite party.
5. However, the evidence suggests otherwise. It appears that more voters continue turning against state governments that are of the same party as the federal government, over successive elections, even when the same federal government had been in office at the state election before.
Sunday, June 7, 2020
Unpopular State Premiers Still Have Dire Historic Fates
This article is another piece where I update a previously published article from some time ago and see whether the pattern described in it is still holding up. Today's target for an update is Unpopular State Premiers Have Dire Historic Fates, from 2013. This article was inspired by a bad Newspoll for then Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett. Barnett had been re-elected with a 57.3% 2PP nine months earlier so it probably seemed adventurous to see a single Newspoll still showing his government in a narrow lead as the first of the circling vultures. But it was - Barnett survived a leadership challenge in 2016 but was dumped by the voters in 2017 with an enormous 12.8% swing.
He wasn't alone. Since I released the original article, Campbell Newman was dumped by voters with a massive swing, as was Lara Giddings. Jay Weatherill also lost (albeit with a 2PP swing to him) and Mike Baird, who had been very popular in his first term, became somewhat unpopular in his second and resigned. The four election defeats for unpopular Premiers helped beef up the evidence that it is the voters, and not just the parties, who tend to show them the door. In the same time, Premiers who had not polled such bad ratings in their terms were re-elected twice in NSW and once each in Queensland, SA, Victoria and Tasmania, with Victoria's Dennis Napthine (worst netsat -4) the sole casualty to not poll a bad rating. The chart below (click for larger clearer version) shows the fates of every state Premier who has polled a netsat worse than -10 in Newspoll history (which starts in 1985). Premiers are sorted by the worst netsat they polled during the term.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Coronavirus And Australian Politicians And Elections
In the last week three federal Coalition MPs (Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, Senator Susan McDonald and Senator Andrew Bragg) have tested positive to COVID-19. Dutton is believed to have caught the disease in the USA, Bragg at a wedding in Australia and McDonald via unknown community transmission. No state politicians have been reported as testing positive, but that's surely just a matter of time.
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Queensland 2020: Currumbin By-Election and YouGov Poll
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Queensland is heading for at least one unexpectedly interesting by-election early in another state election year. Also, a new YouGov poll has come out that has been the subject of incorrect reporting concerning the Premier's unpopularity. I thought it would be useful to have a post up covering these two issues in detail.
Currumbin (LNP, 3.3%)
By-election March 28
Currumbin is in Queensland's far south-eastern corner and includes the border town of Coolangatta (now a Gold Coast suburb) and surrounding southern Gold Coast suburbs and rural hinterland to the west of them. It has been held by the retiring member, Jann Stuckey, since 2004, but before that was held by Labor's Merri Rose for 12 years. From 1992 (when Rose first ran) until 2001 the seat was more Labor-friendly than the state average, but this ended with Rose's fall from grace and Cabinet in 2004 and since then it has reverted to being slightly LNP-leaning compared to the state average. It is possible, as the departing incumbent Jann Stuckey suggests, that Currumbin is an electorate where perceptions of the candidate matter more than elsewhere.
