ALP would win election held now with small to moderate majority
As my colleague Mark the Ballot notes, federal polling lately has been decidedly two-tone. With the exception of Essential (which Mark ignores), once you adjust recent polls for what is known about their house effects, they tend to be either reasonable for the Coalition (the last two Newspolls, the most recent Morgan) or very bad for them (ReachTEL, Ipsos). Individual poll results that are strong or weak create excited commentary in the media but on average there is not a great deal happening. Here's the smoothed tracking graph:
There's a weak hint of a slow move to the Coalition over recent weeks, but there's been no significant 2PP change for over a month. Indeed, because the aggregate had some lag from the Coalition's dire February polling for a few weeks, it may be that nothing has really happened in 2PP voting intention since the beginning of March.
