Recount Update 3 April: The recount has started (see figures here). Shane Broad leads Brenton Best by 1044 votes with 2540 preferences to throw, meaning Brenton Best would need to get 70.6% of preferences if none exhausted, but probably a few will so he will need a higher share of those that do not. Making things harder for Best are that, for instance, a vote that was Bessell-Broad-Green will still come back to Broad, but a vote that was Bessell-Best-Green is not in the recount, so the bug continues to advantage Broad on the remaining votes. Furthermore among the remaining votes there is quite a slab from Paul O'Halloran (Greens) and Best annoyed many Greens voters in the last parliament. I cannot see how Best can possibly win this.
4 April: Broad has extended his lead by seven votes on the first two exclusions and Best now needs 74.4% of preferences if none exhaust. It may already be mathematically impossible.
11:30: The ABC has reported Broad is over the line.
12:20: Broad has won by a massive 1989 votes. On that basis even without all the benefits of the recount bug he probably still would have got over the line by 100-200 votes or so. The blowout in the margin was largely because preferences from Darryl Bessell flowed heavily to Broad in the recount, unlike preferences from Bessell in the election which had flowed heavily to Best. So voters who voted Bessell-Green or Green-Bessell (ignoring non-contesting candidates) saw the choice between Broad and Best completely differently to those who voted for Bessell then went straight to Broad or Best.
==============================================================
It's been a huge day in Tasmanian state politics with the resignation of Labor leader Bryan Green and his unopposed (at least within the PLP) replacement by Rebecca White. White is the youngest ever Tasmanian Labor leader and will be the youngest Premier by a few to several months if she wins the next state election. (She is not, however, the youngest Labor leader nationally - Chris Watson, later to be PM, was probably one day younger when he became the first federal Labor leader. There may have been other younger Labor leaders in other states; I haven't checked. She is also not the youngest Tasmanian major party leader - Liberal Geoff Pearsall was 32 in 1979.)
Bryan Green is the second long-term Labor leader after Neil Batt (leader 1986-88) to not contest an election. While Green was uncompetitive in head-to-head matchups with Will Hodgman (even after allowing for the edge to the incumbent on such measures) he oversaw a time in which the parliamentary party was almost always unified in public and bloodletting following a massive loss in 2014 was contained.
Showing posts with label 2014 state. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 state. Show all posts
Friday, March 17, 2017
Thursday, May 21, 2015
What Happens In Kim Booth's Recount?
(NB added May 26: The recount will take place on June 9.)
Tasmanian Greens leader Kim Booth suddenly announced his resignation from parliament on Wednesday. This decision follows the very recent death of Booth's father, but with family time and party regeneration cited as motivating factors. (Some have suggested he was jumping before he was pushed as leader, but if so he did well at acting happy about having decided to go.) As with Christine Milne there are now many effusive tributes to Booth's career flowing, as well as trolling from the odd party-pooper, and a few joyful if slightly unhinged celebrations of the party's (supposed) impending demise.
Booth's headkicking style has contributed many memorable moments to Tasmanian politics, most notably the "shredder" affair in which he brandished a reconstructed shredded document in Parliament shortly after its existence was denied, removing a Deputy Premier. His bad-boy purist-rebel image was such that Greens' advertising at the last election showed Booth (who was often at risk of losing his seat) grinning with the slogan "There's only one thing worse than having Kim Booth in Parliament, and that's not having Kim Booth in Parliament". And now, we'll find out just what that is like. I suspect there will be many of my readers who greatly admire his contribution, and others who cannot stand him and will be pleased to see him go. For my own part, I've enjoyed the few times I've talked with Booth in person during his 13-year career in state politics.
Unlike with Milne, at the moment I don't have the time to write a long analysis of Booth's tenure as leader, and there's not that much to say anyway. Booth is the first Tasmanian Greens leader not to actually take the party to a state election - they only contested one Upper House seat and local councils on his watch - and their popularity seems to have stayed at about the level of the 2014 state election, or maybe recovered very slightly. (More on this from EMRS very soon).
Tasmanian Greens leader Kim Booth suddenly announced his resignation from parliament on Wednesday. This decision follows the very recent death of Booth's father, but with family time and party regeneration cited as motivating factors. (Some have suggested he was jumping before he was pushed as leader, but if so he did well at acting happy about having decided to go.) As with Christine Milne there are now many effusive tributes to Booth's career flowing, as well as trolling from the odd party-pooper, and a few joyful if slightly unhinged celebrations of the party's (supposed) impending demise.
Booth's headkicking style has contributed many memorable moments to Tasmanian politics, most notably the "shredder" affair in which he brandished a reconstructed shredded document in Parliament shortly after its existence was denied, removing a Deputy Premier. His bad-boy purist-rebel image was such that Greens' advertising at the last election showed Booth (who was often at risk of losing his seat) grinning with the slogan "There's only one thing worse than having Kim Booth in Parliament, and that's not having Kim Booth in Parliament". And now, we'll find out just what that is like. I suspect there will be many of my readers who greatly admire his contribution, and others who cannot stand him and will be pleased to see him go. For my own part, I've enjoyed the few times I've talked with Booth in person during his 13-year career in state politics.
Unlike with Milne, at the moment I don't have the time to write a long analysis of Booth's tenure as leader, and there's not that much to say anyway. Booth is the first Tasmanian Greens leader not to actually take the party to a state election - they only contested one Upper House seat and local councils on his watch - and their popularity seems to have stayed at about the level of the 2014 state election, or maybe recovered very slightly. (More on this from EMRS very soon).
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Wonk Central: Morgan's Tasmanian State And Federal Sampling
Advance Summary:
1. Roy Morgan Research has issued five recent Tasmanian SMS state polls with small but usable sample sizes in which the Labor Opposition has small primary-vote leads over the Hodgman Liberal Government.
2. Both state and federal evidence suggests these samples have house effects in favour of Labor and the Greens and against the Liberal Party and that Labor's "lead" is therefore probably not real.
3. While pro-ALP house effects are seen in Morgan's federal polling (which partly uses a face-to-face component known to skew to Labor), they are not clearly apparent in Morgan's state SMS samples in other states.
4. Morgan's release of a two-party preferred estimate for Tasmania is misleading, since most Green preferences are never distributed in the state, and even if they were they would not flow as strongly as Morgan's model suggests.
5. If Morgan's recent state samples were actually repeated at an election, the result would be not an easy Labor win as Morgan says, but a hung parliament in which the Greens would determine who governed.
6. Given the dissenting stance of current Greens leader Kim Booth during the previous Labor/Green coalition government, it is not clear who would govern in the event of another hung parliament.
7. An aggregate of all recent Tasmanian state polling does not currently point to a hung parliament if an election was held "right now", but is extremely close to doing so.
(Warning: This piece is very "numbery" and is rated Wonk Factor 4/5.)
1. Roy Morgan Research has issued five recent Tasmanian SMS state polls with small but usable sample sizes in which the Labor Opposition has small primary-vote leads over the Hodgman Liberal Government.
2. Both state and federal evidence suggests these samples have house effects in favour of Labor and the Greens and against the Liberal Party and that Labor's "lead" is therefore probably not real.
3. While pro-ALP house effects are seen in Morgan's federal polling (which partly uses a face-to-face component known to skew to Labor), they are not clearly apparent in Morgan's state SMS samples in other states.
4. Morgan's release of a two-party preferred estimate for Tasmania is misleading, since most Green preferences are never distributed in the state, and even if they were they would not flow as strongly as Morgan's model suggests.
5. If Morgan's recent state samples were actually repeated at an election, the result would be not an easy Labor win as Morgan says, but a hung parliament in which the Greens would determine who governed.
6. Given the dissenting stance of current Greens leader Kim Booth during the previous Labor/Green coalition government, it is not clear who would govern in the event of another hung parliament.
7. An aggregate of all recent Tasmanian state polling does not currently point to a hung parliament if an election was held "right now", but is extremely close to doing so.
(Warning: This piece is very "numbery" and is rated Wonk Factor 4/5.)
Sunday, January 25, 2015
2014 Ehrlich Awards For Wrong Predictions
This supposedly annual end-of-year feature is a little overdue, which I blame partly on the snap Queensland election and partly on the field being uninspiring compared to the 2012 and 2013 ensembles. But while I wait for another poll to shed light on public response to what seems to be a ragged week for the LNP in the Queensland campaign, here we go. This site awards the Ehrlich Award early every year (unless I decide not to) to the "wrongest" public prediction I observe in or relating to the previous calendar year.
There are a few groundrules, for instance predictions need to be meaningful (in terms of being able to assess factually whether they have come to fruition), and predictions that carry a stated chance of falsehood are not included unless that chance proves to be ludicrously low. The first of these, for instance, excludes Tony Abbott's pledge that in 2014 his government "every day [.. ] will keep building the stronger, more prosperous country that all Australians want and deserve" - not only are the terms of such platitudes undefinable, but those making them will continue maintaining they were true. Likewise, I have so far been unable to find an empirical unit for measuring whether or not the President of Russia has been "shirtfronted".
There are a few groundrules, for instance predictions need to be meaningful (in terms of being able to assess factually whether they have come to fruition), and predictions that carry a stated chance of falsehood are not included unless that chance proves to be ludicrously low. The first of these, for instance, excludes Tony Abbott's pledge that in 2014 his government "every day [.. ] will keep building the stronger, more prosperous country that all Australians want and deserve" - not only are the terms of such platitudes undefinable, but those making them will continue maintaining they were true. Likewise, I have so far been unable to find an empirical unit for measuring whether or not the President of Russia has been "shirtfronted".
Thursday, October 16, 2014
State Liberal Conference Attacks Hare-Clark System
Advance Summary:
1. Recently the Tasmanian state Liberal conference passed a motion calling for investigation into alternatives to the Hare-Clark system.
2. The limited evidence available suggests that the arguments advanced for change were based on false attacks on the accuracy of the system and inapplicable analogies with the grossly defective Senate system.
3. In fact the problem some Liberals have with Hare-Clark is that as a converter of vote share to seats it is too accurate for their liking, and by being so increases the chance of minority government.
4. Minority parliaments in Tasmania are often unstable because of the inverted nature of Tasmania's two-house system, compared to other states in which the proportional system tends to be used in the upper house.
5. Claims that the government needs to strike in this term on this issue are far-fetched given both the size of the government's buffer and the fact that the last major electoral system change was bipartisan and happened in a hung parliament.
6. Indeed a switch to single-member seats in the current environment would not improve the government's chances of retaining its majority in 2018, and would actually increase the chance of it losing outright.
===================================================================
1. Recently the Tasmanian state Liberal conference passed a motion calling for investigation into alternatives to the Hare-Clark system.
2. The limited evidence available suggests that the arguments advanced for change were based on false attacks on the accuracy of the system and inapplicable analogies with the grossly defective Senate system.
3. In fact the problem some Liberals have with Hare-Clark is that as a converter of vote share to seats it is too accurate for their liking, and by being so increases the chance of minority government.
4. Minority parliaments in Tasmania are often unstable because of the inverted nature of Tasmania's two-house system, compared to other states in which the proportional system tends to be used in the upper house.
5. Claims that the government needs to strike in this term on this issue are far-fetched given both the size of the government's buffer and the fact that the last major electoral system change was bipartisan and happened in a hung parliament.
6. Indeed a switch to single-member seats in the current environment would not improve the government's chances of retaining its majority in 2018, and would actually increase the chance of it losing outright.
===================================================================
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Denison Ballot Papers Damage Report Released
In the first few months of this year, this site provided extensive coverage of the Tasmanian state elections. In my Denison post-count thread I touched on an unusual incident that happened during the counting of postal ballot papers, in which the incorrect operation of a letter-opening machine damaged over 2000 ballots. Announcements at the time said that 163 ballots (a number later reduced slightly, then increased again) were "irreparably damaged and have had to be treated as informal."
At the time there was a clear danger of this damage affecting the close contest between Madeleine Ogilvie and Julian Amos for the final seat (ultimately won by Ogilvie after two lead changes during the distribution of preferences). In the end the margin of 331 votes was large enough that it was clear the Tasmanian Electoral Commission had dodged the 2013 WA Senate count bullet. But this is not only clear because the final margin was of that size, but also because of some advantages of Hare-Clark over the current Senate system.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
State Election Post-Count Thread: Braddon
This is the last of my state election post-counting threads. There is now one for each electorate and they will be updated frequently. During the cutup (which starts in the middle of the week after next) I will be on remote fieldwork and will update nightly, but hope to take a day off at the peak counting time.
SEAT OUTCOME: 4-1-0 (Count finished)
WINNERS: Brooks (Lib), Rockliff (Lib), Green (ALP), Jaensch (Lib), Rylah (Lib)
Braddon is the most fascinating of the five preference distributions unfolding before us, with a real chance something quite unusual could occur. The Liberals have racked up a whopping 3.53 quotas (nearly 59%), Labor is on 1.40, PUP have 0.43, the Greens have 0.40, the Nationals 0.13 (headed up by their rogue candidate Ken Dorsey!) and the rest a trickle.
Adam Brooks and Jeremy Rockliff are both way over quota, with 0.91 quotas surplus between them. Bryan Green is far enough ahead of the rest of the Labor ticket that he will be elected, though it will take him a very long time to do so.
The Liberals will obviously get at least one of Roger Jaensch and Joan Rylah over the line and the question is whether they can get two. Their rivals for this feat are Brenton Best (ALP), Kevin Morgan (PUP) and Paul O'Halloran (Green).
SEAT OUTCOME: 4-1-0 (Count finished)
WINNERS: Brooks (Lib), Rockliff (Lib), Green (ALP), Jaensch (Lib), Rylah (Lib)
Braddon is the most fascinating of the five preference distributions unfolding before us, with a real chance something quite unusual could occur. The Liberals have racked up a whopping 3.53 quotas (nearly 59%), Labor is on 1.40, PUP have 0.43, the Greens have 0.40, the Nationals 0.13 (headed up by their rogue candidate Ken Dorsey!) and the rest a trickle.
Adam Brooks and Jeremy Rockliff are both way over quota, with 0.91 quotas surplus between them. Bryan Green is far enough ahead of the rest of the Labor ticket that he will be elected, though it will take him a very long time to do so.
The Liberals will obviously get at least one of Roger Jaensch and Joan Rylah over the line and the question is whether they can get two. Their rivals for this feat are Brenton Best (ALP), Kevin Morgan (PUP) and Paul O'Halloran (Green).
State Election Post-Count Thread: Bass
This
is the fourth of my state election post-counting threads. There will
be one for each electorate and they will be updated frequently. During
the cutup (which starts in the middle of the week after next) I will be
on remote fieldwork and will update nightly, but hope to take a day off
during the cutup.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green.
WINNERS: Gutwein (Lib), Ferguson (Lib), Courtney (Lib), M O'Byrne (ALP), Booth (Grn)
Sunday 16th:
Bass is one of the two economically struggling northern electorates where the Liberal Party has done exceptionally well. They're currently sitting on 3.44 quotas (57.4%). Labor is on a distant 1.40 quotas, the Greens have 0.75, PUP have 0.31 and we should not forget the Australian Christians with 0.06. The two indies don't have much.
Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson are elected with both well over quota. Michelle O'Byrne is far enough ahead of Brian Wightman that I very greatly doubt that he can catch her, especially as Senka Mujcic's preferences should favour O'Byrne.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green.
WINNERS: Gutwein (Lib), Ferguson (Lib), Courtney (Lib), M O'Byrne (ALP), Booth (Grn)
Sunday 16th:
Bass is one of the two economically struggling northern electorates where the Liberal Party has done exceptionally well. They're currently sitting on 3.44 quotas (57.4%). Labor is on a distant 1.40 quotas, the Greens have 0.75, PUP have 0.31 and we should not forget the Australian Christians with 0.06. The two indies don't have much.
Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson are elected with both well over quota. Michelle O'Byrne is far enough ahead of Brian Wightman that I very greatly doubt that he can catch her, especially as Senka Mujcic's preferences should favour O'Byrne.
State Election Post-Count Thread: Lyons
This
is the third of my state election post-counting threads. There will be
one for each electorate and they will be updated frequently. During
the cutup (which starts in the middle of the week after next) I will be
on remote fieldwork and will update nightly, but hope to take a day off
during the cutup.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 Lib 2 ALP (Count Finished)
WINNERS: Hidding, Shelton and Barnett (Lib), White and Llewellyn (ALP)
Sunday 16th:
No, there isn't a deliberate geographic bias in the order I am doing these in; I am just doing the less complicated ones first!
Lyons results can be seen here. The Liberals have 3.13 quotas, Labor has 1.66, the Greens have 0.67, PUP have 0.33 and the other significant presence is independent Paul Belcher who has 0.12.
Liberals Rene Hidding, Mark Shelton and Guy Barnett have all won as has Rebecca White for Labor. The interest here is in the battle for the final seat between the Greens' three-term incumbent Tim Morris, and Labor veteran David Llewellyn, an MHA from 1986 until narrowly losing to White in 2010.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 Lib 2 ALP (Count Finished)
WINNERS: Hidding, Shelton and Barnett (Lib), White and Llewellyn (ALP)
Sunday 16th:
No, there isn't a deliberate geographic bias in the order I am doing these in; I am just doing the less complicated ones first!
Lyons results can be seen here. The Liberals have 3.13 quotas, Labor has 1.66, the Greens have 0.67, PUP have 0.33 and the other significant presence is independent Paul Belcher who has 0.12.
Liberals Rene Hidding, Mark Shelton and Guy Barnett have all won as has Rebecca White for Labor. The interest here is in the battle for the final seat between the Greens' three-term incumbent Tim Morris, and Labor veteran David Llewellyn, an MHA from 1986 until narrowly losing to White in 2010.
State Election Post-Count: Franklin
This is the second of my state election post-counting threads. There will be one for each electorate and they will be updated frequently. During the cutup (which starts in the middle of the week after next) I will be on remote fieldwork and will update nightly, but hope to take a day off during the cutup.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 LIB 1 ALP 1 GREEN (Count Finished)
WINNERS: Hodgman (Lib), Giddings (ALP), McKim (Green), Petrusma (Lib), Harriss (Lib)
This thread concerns the post-count and preference cut-up in the seat of Franklin (results here).
In Franklin, the Liberals are currently on 2.99 quotas, Labor on 1.74 quotas, the Greens on 1.00 quotas, PUP on 0.22 quotas, and the Tasmanian Nationals have disgraced themselves by losing to the Socialist Alliance for last place.
Will Hodgman has been elected with 2.10 quotas in his own right, a slight increase on the 1.90 quotas he polled in 2010. Lara Giddings and Nick McKim have been re-elected. The only remaining interest in the count is whether David O'Byrne can pull back enough of the Liberal lead to beat either Paul Harriss or Jacquie Petrusma as the Liberal total declines after leakage from Will Hodgman's massive surplus.
SEAT OUTCOME: 3 LIB 1 ALP 1 GREEN (Count Finished)
WINNERS: Hodgman (Lib), Giddings (ALP), McKim (Green), Petrusma (Lib), Harriss (Lib)
This thread concerns the post-count and preference cut-up in the seat of Franklin (results here).
In Franklin, the Liberals are currently on 2.99 quotas, Labor on 1.74 quotas, the Greens on 1.00 quotas, PUP on 0.22 quotas, and the Tasmanian Nationals have disgraced themselves by losing to the Socialist Alliance for last place.
Will Hodgman has been elected with 2.10 quotas in his own right, a slight increase on the 1.90 quotas he polled in 2010. Lara Giddings and Nick McKim have been re-elected. The only remaining interest in the count is whether David O'Byrne can pull back enough of the Liberal lead to beat either Paul Harriss or Jacquie Petrusma as the Liberal total declines after leakage from Will Hodgman's massive surplus.
State Election Post-Count: Denison
This is the first of my state election post-counting threads. There will be one for each electorate and they will be updated frequently. During the cutup (which starts in the middle of the week after next) I will be on remote fieldwork and will update nightly, but hope to take a day off during the cutup.
SEAT OUTCOME: 2 LIB 2 ALP 1 GREEN (Called)
WINNERS: Bacon (ALP), Groom (Lib), O'Connor (Grn), Archer (Lib)
CONTEST: Ogilvie (ALP) vs Amos (ALP) - other ALP candidates getting insufficient preference flow
STATUS: Ogilvie leading and will win count. If close may be subject to protest but likely to not be close enough.
Sunday 16th:
SEAT OUTCOME: 2 LIB 2 ALP 1 GREEN (Called)
WINNERS: Bacon (ALP), Groom (Lib), O'Connor (Grn), Archer (Lib)
CONTEST: Ogilvie (ALP) vs Amos (ALP) - other ALP candidates getting insufficient preference flow
STATUS: Ogilvie leading and will win count. If close may be subject to protest but likely to not be close enough.
Sunday 16th:
This thread concerns the post-count and preference cutup in the seat of Denison. Denison (progressive results here) is the one seat that was absolutely settled at party level on the night.
On-the-night quota totals are 2.26 Liberal, 2.05 Labor, 1.29 Green, 0.18 PUP, and the remaining 0.22 is split between six independents, the Socialist Alliance and the woefully-performed Tasmanian Nationals. Scott Bacon and Matthew Groom are re-elected with quota, Elise Archer is re-elected and so is Cassy O'Connor.
Tasmanian State Election Late Night Wrap
LIB 51.4 ALP 27.4 GREEN 13.5 PUP 5.0 OTHER 2.7
LIBERAL 14 (1 of these very likely but not quite confirmed)
LABOR 6
GREEN 3 (1 of these very likely but not quite confirmed)
UNCLEAR 2 (1 ALP vs GREEN, 1 very probably LIB vs ALP)
Post-count links for individual seats:
Bass
Braddon
Denison
Franklin
Lyons
The Liberal Party has, as expected, won a decisive majority victory in the Tasmanian state election with over half the vote. In the process Labor has probably been reduced to its worst primary vote since the advent of the Hare-Clark system in the state in 1909, but can manage a sigh of relief that the onslaught wasn't quite as bad as the polls were predicting. The Greens have again performed poorly relative to their polling (even more so than my attempts to compensate for this tendency suggested) and the Palmer United Party has probably failed to win a single seat. You can replay the live blog (and see a picture from the last time I got around to re-dying my hair) over here. Apart from an intermission when I had to scramble down to Wrest Point because of a lack of booth data, it went well.
LIBERAL 14 (1 of these very likely but not quite confirmed)
LABOR 6
GREEN 3 (1 of these very likely but not quite confirmed)
UNCLEAR 2 (1 ALP vs GREEN, 1 very probably LIB vs ALP)
Post-count links for individual seats:
Bass
Braddon
Denison
Franklin
Lyons
The Liberal Party has, as expected, won a decisive majority victory in the Tasmanian state election with over half the vote. In the process Labor has probably been reduced to its worst primary vote since the advent of the Hare-Clark system in the state in 1909, but can manage a sigh of relief that the onslaught wasn't quite as bad as the polls were predicting. The Greens have again performed poorly relative to their polling (even more so than my attempts to compensate for this tendency suggested) and the Palmer United Party has probably failed to win a single seat. You can replay the live blog (and see a picture from the last time I got around to re-dying my hair) over here. Apart from an intermission when I had to scramble down to Wrest Point because of a lack of booth data, it went well.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
State election night arrangements and viewing tips
This is the usual post to give details of election night arrangments for this site.
CLICK ON THESE WORDS FOR LIVE COVERAGE
From c.6:30-11 pm I will be doing live coverage at www.themercury.com.au (link above). Based on last election, I expect the link to be an interactive one where I can answer questions and will answer as many as I can, as well as providing constant updates and calls on who is in and out. Please be aware that keeping on top of the figures and preparing comments is a busy process and so I may sometimes be slow.
I respectfully ask journalists (and anyone else unless they have scrutineering info) not to call me during this time. If you read my coverage you may find questions answered there. I may be able to do interviews late tonight and certainly tomorrow. Scrutineering info from those who have my number (text preferred) is welcome at any time.
CLICK ON THESE WORDS FOR LIVE COVERAGE
From c.6:30-11 pm I will be doing live coverage at www.themercury.com.au (link above). Based on last election, I expect the link to be an interactive one where I can answer questions and will answer as many as I can, as well as providing constant updates and calls on who is in and out. Please be aware that keeping on top of the figures and preparing comments is a busy process and so I may sometimes be slow.
I respectfully ask journalists (and anyone else unless they have scrutineering info) not to call me during this time. If you read my coverage you may find questions answered there. I may be able to do interviews late tonight and certainly tomorrow. Scrutineering info from those who have my number (text preferred) is welcome at any time.
Friday, March 14, 2014
Newspoll: It's All Over
Newspoll: Liberal 53 Labor 23 Green 16 PUP 4 Others 4
Seat breakdown based on this poll: Liberal majority win (approx 14-7-4 or 15-6-4)
Aggregate and forecast both 14-7-4.
Note: On election night (Saturday) I will be live-blogging for the Mercury online from c. 6-11pm. A link will be posted here. Anyone not working for the Mercury should not attempt to call me in this time.
Newspoll hath spoken. The Tasmanian state election appears over as a contest, although it could be said it has been over now for years. What was the Labor-Green coalition government faces a combined swing against it of almost 20 points (even more than the 16.7 points in the most recent ReachTEL). It might not be quite that bad on election day, but it will still be very, very bad indeed.
Note: On election night (Saturday) I will be live-blogging for the Mercury online from c. 6-11pm. A link will be posted here. Anyone not working for the Mercury should not attempt to call me in this time.
Newspoll hath spoken. The Tasmanian state election appears over as a contest, although it could be said it has been over now for years. What was the Labor-Green coalition government faces a combined swing against it of almost 20 points (even more than the 16.7 points in the most recent ReachTEL). It might not be quite that bad on election day, but it will still be very, very bad indeed.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Do The Greens Display "Real Liberal Values"?
Of all the advertising in the Tasmanian election so far, the piece that has most interested me has been the Greens' claim to represent "real liberal values", as seen in a leaflet distributed in parts of the state and on this website. So far as I know the claim has been largely ignored by opponents, but I thought it was something that deserved proper critical scrutiny.
The campaign is part of an increasingly confident and positive attempt by the Greens to take advantage of Labor's apparent death spiral in order to make a play for Opposition or at least co-Opposition status to the incoming Liberal government. A part of this is an ambitious attempt to snare an elusive second seat in Denison. The Greens have had their eyes on this prize for a long time but have never quite got there. Past elections under both the seven-seat and five-seat systems have now and then seen polling samples that implied this result was possible, but it has never happened.
Newspoll To Deliver Final Nail
Newspoll Tasmania state (first 1000 respondents) Liberals 53%
Outcome if correct: Liberal majority government (14+ seats)
In the face of over three years of high-volume polling pointing in every single case to Liberal majority government at the upcoming Tasmanian state election, Tasmanian Labor has been able to hold out one small hope. That hope is that the polls are wrong.
That hope has been not without sustenance. All the polls in Tasmania in that time have been conducted by EMRS and ReachTEL. EMRS has a clear track record of underestimating the Labor vote and overestimating the Greens, and greatly misread the 2006 election until very close to the poll. ReachTEL is a new player, untested at this level, and which overstated the Liberal vote in Tasmanian seats at the federal election. That said, there is strong evidence (see ReachTEL house effect section) that this was due to a method issue specific to the options list in polls commissioned by newspapers, and since fixed.
Outcome if correct: Liberal majority government (14+ seats)
In the face of over three years of high-volume polling pointing in every single case to Liberal majority government at the upcoming Tasmanian state election, Tasmanian Labor has been able to hold out one small hope. That hope is that the polls are wrong.
That hope has been not without sustenance. All the polls in Tasmania in that time have been conducted by EMRS and ReachTEL. EMRS has a clear track record of underestimating the Labor vote and overestimating the Greens, and greatly misread the 2006 election until very close to the poll. ReachTEL is a new player, untested at this level, and which overstated the Liberal vote in Tasmanian seats at the federal election. That said, there is strong evidence (see ReachTEL house effect section) that this was due to a method issue specific to the options list in polls commissioned by newspapers, and since fixed.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Tas Labor Push-Polling? Not As Such, But ...
 |
| Wirrah Award For Fishy Polling (image source) |
In the final week of the Tasmanian state election campaign, the Tasmanian ALP has been accused of push-polling. This follows the apparent leaking, by forces unknown, of an internal Labor UMR poll.
I have also obtained the contentious poll, which was conducted by telephone interviews with a sample size of 300 voters in each of Lyons and Franklin. The Liberal Party needs to win three seats in at least one of these electorates, and is very likely to do so in Lyons, but lineball in Franklin.
The questions for the two electorates, conducted 5-6 March, appear in a results section entitled "Messaging". Each question has the opening question "Does the following statement make you more or less likely to vote Labor in the state election or does it make no difference?" The statements then are:
Saturday, March 8, 2014
ReachTEL: The Campaign Has Changed Nothing
ReachTEL: Liberal 47.4 Labor 23.6 Green 18.2 PUP 6.7 Other 4.1
Outcome if election was held now based on this poll: Liberal Majority (14-5-5-1 based on sum of individual breakdowns, though Labor would more likely get one more seat somewhere)
New aggregate of all state polls: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1
My current forecast: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1
In the three weeks since the last public opinion polling most of the formal 2014 state election campaign has gone by. People often expect events that happen during campaigns (such as campaign incidents or policy announcements) to affect the outcome, but the great majority don't have much impact. With the release of the most recent ReachTEL, taken just nine days from polling day and with prepoll voting already open, it doesn't look like this campaign period has offered any respite for a Labor government on the verge of being put out of its misery. Indeed, this poll is if anything a shade worse for the government than its predecessor (see ReachTEL: The PUP Surge Has Landed), which was also at the low end of Labor's recent form. Not so much because of the loss of a point of support (an insignificant difference), but because the distribution of votes between seats is even nastier.
Outcome if election was held now based on this poll: Liberal Majority (14-5-5-1 based on sum of individual breakdowns, though Labor would more likely get one more seat somewhere)
New aggregate of all state polls: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1
My current forecast: Liberal 14 Labor 6 Green 4 PUP 1
In the three weeks since the last public opinion polling most of the formal 2014 state election campaign has gone by. People often expect events that happen during campaigns (such as campaign incidents or policy announcements) to affect the outcome, but the great majority don't have much impact. With the release of the most recent ReachTEL, taken just nine days from polling day and with prepoll voting already open, it doesn't look like this campaign period has offered any respite for a Labor government on the verge of being put out of its misery. Indeed, this poll is if anything a shade worse for the government than its predecessor (see ReachTEL: The PUP Surge Has Landed), which was also at the low end of Labor's recent form. Not so much because of the loss of a point of support (an insignificant difference), but because the distribution of votes between seats is even nastier.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Not A Poll: How Many Seats Will The Liberals Win In The State Election?
Readers may have noticed the lack of new articles over the past couple of weeks (though various old ones were updated, including frequent updates to the main guide page.) The main reason was that I was away on fieldwork unrelated to elections and had not only limited internet connectivity, but also very limited spare time. Anyway that's over now and I'll be online much of the time up to the state election, probably except for most of the long weekend. There will be quite a few new state articles in the next two weeks (yes, that should include a certain other state!) and it's probably about time for another federal polling wrap soon. Thanks very much to those who have so far donated money to support this site as without those donations I would not have been online over the last two weeks at all, and nor for much of the post-count.
Anyway, this thread just introduces my usual exercise in which you get to play psephologist by predicting an outcome. In this case the challenge is to predict the number of Liberal seats that will be won at the state election. Voting is on the sidebar.
Anyway, this thread just introduces my usual exercise in which you get to play psephologist by predicting an outcome. In this case the challenge is to predict the number of Liberal seats that will be won at the state election. Voting is on the sidebar.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Polling And The Proposed Pulp Mill
What's big, doesn't exist and eats Tasmanian Premiers?
The release of Mercury-commissioned ReachTEL polling about the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill and its impact on state election voting seems a good time to write something I've been meaning to put up here for some time. There's a view doing the rounds, among some of the green and gullible, that the last time this proposal was about, a huge body of credible polling showed very strong opposition to it. As well as discussing the current poll, this article takes a little trip down memory lane and points out why we never knew as much about public views of the pulp mill as some of its more ardent opponents told us that we did. It also includes a few of my own thoughts on the "issue" of the proposed pulp mill.
Anyway, here is the new pulp mill poll result:
The release of Mercury-commissioned ReachTEL polling about the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill and its impact on state election voting seems a good time to write something I've been meaning to put up here for some time. There's a view doing the rounds, among some of the green and gullible, that the last time this proposal was about, a huge body of credible polling showed very strong opposition to it. As well as discussing the current poll, this article takes a little trip down memory lane and points out why we never knew as much about public views of the pulp mill as some of its more ardent opponents told us that we did. It also includes a few of my own thoughts on the "issue" of the proposed pulp mill.
Anyway, here is the new pulp mill poll result:
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