ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THIS MACHINE KILLS BAD ELECTORAL SYSTEMS. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.
Thursday, October 24, 2024
The Commonest Arguments For OPV Are Overrated
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Age And Canberra Are Still Killing State Governments
Advance Summary
1. One of the most important factors in state election outcomes is the influence of whether the governing party at state level is in Government or Opposition federally. To be the same party as the federal Government is a disadvantage.
2. Another important factor is the age of the state government, with governments tending to do worse the longer they have been in office.
3. In the last six years, all same-party state governments that have faced elections have lost seats in significant numbers.
4. In the meantime, two of the three opposite-party governments gained seats (though one very old opposite-party government was defeated, but with a 2PP swing to it.)
4. It might seem logical that if the federal government at one state election was the same as at the previous election for that state, then this factor would not generate further swings against an incumbent state government of the same party, or further protection for one of the opposite party.
5. However, the evidence suggests otherwise. It appears that more voters continue turning against state governments that are of the same party as the federal government, over successive elections, even when the same federal government had been in office at the state election before.
Monday, December 25, 2017
Queensland 2017: Final Results And Polling Accuracy
2PP Estimate 51.2 to Labor (+0.1 from 2015)
It's taken a while but I've finally found some time to put up something about the final results of the 2017 Queensland state election. I try to always put something out on Christmas Day, though last year nasty weather interfered with that plan.
In a nutshell, the 2017 Queensland election was one where a great many dramatic things could have happened, but virtually none of them did, as the following sections explain:
Hardly any seats changed hands
You don't turn 89 seats into 93 without breaking a few eggs, but the level of seat transfer between the parties at this election was remarkably low. On a notional basis and ignoring retirements and mid-term defections, just nine seats changed hands at this election, most of them marginal anyway. The Liberal National Party lost Redlands (1.2%), Gaven (2.8%) and Aspley (3.2%) to Labor, and would have lost Maiwar (3.0%) to Labor as well but the Greens snatched it instead. Labor lost Bundaberg (0.5% and which was a freak win last time anyway) and Burdekin (notionally theirs by 1.4% but LNP-occupied) to the LNP, and might have lost Mirani (3.8) to the LNP had not One Nation helped itself to its only win. The LNP also dropped Noosa (6.6) to independent Sandy Bolton, and Hinchinbrook (3.4) to KAP's Nick Dametto. In Hinchinbrook, Dametto (who according to his party had only been campaigning for four weeks) pulled off a duplicate of Andrew Wilkie's Denison 2010 winning method of coming third and getting everyone's preferences.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
2017 Queensland Election Postcount (Main Thread)
Final result ALP 48 LNP 39 KAP 3 ONP 1 IND 1 GREEN 1
Pumicestone won by LNP
Cook assumed won by ALP
Rockhampton won by ALP
Gaven won by ALP
Maiwar won by Greens
Hinchinbrook won by KAP
Macalister won by ALP
Burdekin won by LNP
Townsville won by Labor
This thread will follow the 2017 Queensland election post-election-day count in those seats that remain up in the air.
I'm in no real doubt now that Labor has won the election, in some form or other, but that form (majority or not, and if not with what numbers) remains to be clear. They have 44 wins that I am regarding with some trepidation as solid, and one more ( Gaven) that I think they have probably won. There are two more that appear to be going to "the left" in some form (Maiwar and Rockhampton), a close one in Townsville, and it is also worth noting that the indie who appears to be winning Noosa preferenced Labor. A vast amount has to go wrong from there before an LNP-ONP-KAP-indie government could be seriously considered, and even then it's not clear which way KAP would go.
This thread will follow the seats that I consider to be in significant doubt. Where time permits and a seat greatly interests me, it may be given a breakout thread. Seats appear in alphabetical order but when a seat is no longer considered of interest it will be moved to the bottom of the thread. It will take me some time today to add all the seats. Updates on specific seats will be added as time allows, but because of work commitments this is only likely to happen in the evenings, and probably not all of them.
Saturday, November 25, 2017
Queensland 2017 Live
Approx Labor 43 LNP 38 KAP 2 ONP 1 IND 1 Unclear 8 (including one ALP vs Green)
(From base of Labor 49 LNP 42 KAP 2:)
Labor Gains from LNP: Redlands, Aspley
Very likely Labor/Green Gain from LNP: Maiwar
LNP gains from Labor: Bundaberg and probably Burdekin (notional ALP)
Very likely ONP gain from Labor: Mirani
Likely IND gain from LNP: Noosa
Complicated: Hinchinbrook (LNP), Mundingburra (ALP - Labor favoured), Thuringowa (ALP - Labor favoured), Macalister (ALP - Labor favoured), Rockhampton (ALP)
Unclear ALP vs LNP: Pumicestone (ALP leads in ALP seat), Gaven (ALP leads in LNP seat)
Queensland: The Election Polls Forgot
2PP off this aggregate: 52.5 to Labor
Seat projection off this aggregate: Labor 51 LNP 37 PHON 3 KAP 2
(Greens may win 1-2 seats instead, but not enough reliable evidence re Greens' chances)
Uncertainties: limited polling dominated by a single pollster, change in preferencing method and likely preferencing behaviour
Nearly three years ago an incumbent Queensland government was leading about 52-48 in the polls and polling analysts generally though that it might lose but would probably be returned. We were wrong; it did very narrowly lose, mainly because of a radical shift in preferencing behaviour by voters for minor parties.
Three years later, some of the problems are the same. A radical shift in preferencing behaviour is possible in theory, because Pauline Hanson's One Nation was just a minor presence last election but is now gathering a double-digit vote. Moreover, some polls have showed One Nation voters as much more likely to preference the conservative side of politics than they used to be - a situation consistent with the party attracting a lot of ex-Coalition supporters.
Saturday, November 18, 2017
Queensland: A Hard Election To Model
If Newspoll/Galaxy preference assumptions are correct Labor should just win majority on current numbers (Projection: Labor 50 LNP 37 PHON 4 KAP 2)
If ReachTEL preferences are accurate LNP may win, though ReachTEL released 20 Nov is less clear on this
Note: Live comments on Queensland elections here on Saturday night.
It's taken me until the week before the election to get around to posting any analysis during the campaign for the 2017 Queensland election. This is partly because of an unusually severe version of the usual problem: I've been extremely busy and there are just not enough of me to do everything I'd like to do. It's also because this election's very challenging to model. And, as I noted previously, the big picture isn't much help either. The government has been chaotic, but the federal Coalition's turmoil is a massive burden for Tim Nicholls' LNP opposition.
Saturday, June 3, 2017
Modelling The Queensland Election Off The Senate Election And Polling
The difficult modelling task is to try to work out what seat share the high One Nation vote in recent state polling converts to. If the One Nation vote share keeps falling, this will soon be a non-issue. But for the time being, let's assume it doesn't. It's also worth having a look at whether the Greens have any chance of winning seats in a state where they have yet to win a state seat in their own right.
In the previous instalment, I reckoned that Pauline Hanson's One Nation's current level of polled state-election support in Queensland (17%) probably wouldn't be good for all that many seats. I suggested that if the current primary vote levels were applied to the seats as they stood in 2001 (ie as swings from the 1998 election, One Nation's last big success), 17% would only have been good for about three or four seats.