DemosAU: Status Quo-ish Poll, But Is There An Elephant Outside The Room?

DemosAU: Liberal 35 Labor 23 Greens 15 IND 17 SF+F 4 others 6

Although poll finds Liberals down five on election, most likely result based off this poll would be no seat change from the 2025 election

The new quarterly Tasmanian state DemosAU poll is out (link to Pulse coverage), with the pollster joining EMRS in regularly canvassing Tasmanian state politics being a most welcome development.  It's my habit to write a separate article for every new Tasmanian poll that appears at least outside campaign season, but I don't have a huge amount to say about this one.  It's actually quite similar to the November EMRS with primaries of 35-23-15-17-10 compared with 34-25-17-19-5.  

The slight improvement of the Independent vote compared to the election is of no consequence given that Tasmanian polls tend to overestimate the Independent vote anyway.  The Liberals have dropped 5% on the primary vote, which on a uniform swing places Braddon in danger to the Greens (given they beat the Greens by 5.3 points there in 2025) but I would expect some of the losses to go to candidates whose preferences would help the Liberals more than the Greens.  As for the Labor primary, hmmm ... 23%, that's not good.  DemosAU does have some tendency in polls elsewhere to have major parties a bit lower than other polls, but at this stage compared to EMRS this is not apparent here.

DemosAU: Liberals Increase Lead Ahead Of Budget

DemosAU: Lib 41 Labor 24 Green 15 IND 14 SFF 2 others 4
Liberals would be re-elected in minority, probably gaining one seat

A surprise DemosAU Tasmanian state poll has appeared.  The government will be grinning with a 17 point primary vote lead.  If there is a hostile reception to the coming interim Budget then the grin might not last too long.  That said, there have been some advance signs that the medicine won't be too harsh.  

This poll was self-initiated (not commissioned by anyone) and taken from Oct 16-27 with a sample size of 1021.  DemosAU scrubbed up pretty well in the state election, though not as well as EMRS.  They did significantly underestimate the Liberal primary and, like all pollsters, overestimate Independents, but their overall read of Labor's poor prospects in particular was on the money and their individual candidate breakdowns were very handy (for more detail on that see here). 

The Independent reading in this poll is noticeably lower than the c.19% readings seen before the election.  It's possible the use of both 2025 state and federal election voting as weightings will have toned down any impact of an overengaged sample on the previously over-polled independent vote, but I don't think that's the main reason why independent votes get overestimated in Tasmania anyway.  Rather I think some voters are looking for an independent but at state level never find the right one.  If that's so, this poll might be taken as pointing to some softening in independent support.  The August EMRS had found no such softening; the November EMRS will be interesting in this regard.

Tasmania 2025: The Endgame Live

RESUMPTION OF PARLIAMENT FOLLOWING JULY 19 ELECTION

Labor has moved constructive no-confidence motion to transfer confidence of the House from Jeremy Rockliff to Dean Winter

Motion failed 10-24, attracting no crossbench support.

WEDNESDAY: Labor leadership now under consideration (UPDATE: Josh Willie replaces Dean Winter)

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This is an updates thread for what should be, for now, the end of the 2025 Tasmanian election aftermath with the resumption of Parliament today.  The result is likely to be decided either by Labor moving a foreshadowed motion of no-confidence that fails to pass, or by Labor deciding not to move it.  In either of these cases the Rockliff government will have survived for now and won a fifth consecutive election.  However I am keeping an eye on things in case something unusually unusual happens.  (This is Tasmanian politics.  Normality is relative.)

Over the last few days David O'Byrne, the Greens and Kristie Johnston have all announced that they will not support Labor's proposed motion to express no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff and confidence in Dean Winter (see my confidence position tracker).  The Greens have also said that they will not abstain.  On this basis if the motion is put it will get at most 14 votes.  Labor would need three out of George Razay, Peter George, Craig Garland and Carlo Di Falco to demonstrate that the Greens' decision to back the Liberals had decided government, rather than the crossbench being so averse to Labor's attempt that the Greens could not have put Labor in government anyway.  This seems unlikely. [Update: George has just said no as well.]

Based on the order of business there will not be action on Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) until after 2 pm (I am not sure if the motion can go ahead between 2-3).  If the motion does go ahead there is potential for the debate to go for several hours and perhaps go into tomorrow though this will depend on how many MPs want to speak and for how long, and also whether the House chooses to adjourn around 6 pm or continue into the evening until it is finished.  

At this stage there is no sign of it being likely that anything will happen with Labor's motion (if it goes ahead) other than it being put, debated and lost - but there is always the scope for amendments and procedural motions.  There has been speculation on social media and talkback about the two parts of Labor's motion being uncoupled but I think we all know where that could end up.  (I also covered this idea in the introduction to my historic recap of the first day of Parliament in 1989).

2025 Tasmanian Postcount: Franklin

ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS

FRANKLIN (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

SEATS WON (CALLED): 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 2 IND

SEAT WINNERS: Eric Abetz (Lib), Jacquie Petrusma (Lib), Dean Winter (ALP), Peter George (Ind), David O'Byrne (Ind), Rosalie Woodruff (Grn), Meg Brown (ALP)

SEAT LOST: Nic Street (Liberal)

IND (Peter George) gain from Liberal

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts as written

Labor Tables No Confidence Motion In Premier Rockliff

No confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff passed 18-17.

By convention Rockliff will resign unless he can secure a fresh election from the Governor.

At this stage of term Governor should seek to appoint a replacement Premier if possible.

However it seems doubtful that a stable and willing alternative government can be formed as Labor does not appear willing to form government without an election.

House will sit on Tuesday to pass supply after which Rockliff will request election.

Election seems most likely but there are paths by which it might be avoided. 

Earliest possible date July 19.  

In-theory alternatives:

* Rockliff resigns, new Liberal Premier (no-one yet appears willing, unclear they would command confidence)

* Mid-term transfer to Labor (Labor appears unwilling to govern with Green support)

* Crossbench Premier (very unlikely either major party would support)

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Things might come to a head quickly here or it might be a fizzer but I thought I should put something up following today's news that Opposition Leader Dean Winter has used his budget reply speech to table a no confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.  

EMRS: New Poll More Similar To Last Election

EMRS Lib 34 (-1) ALP 30 (-1) Grn 13 (-1) JLN 8 (+2) IND 12 (+1) other 3 (=)
IND likely to be slightly overstated at expense of others.
Liberals would probably be largest party in election "held now"
Possible seat outcome for this poll Lib 15 ALP 11 Grn 5 IND 3 JLN 1

A new EMRS poll is up for Tasmania.  The November poll saw some signs of the long-struggling Labor opposition finally making some progress but this poll is more similar to the previous election.  Compared to the election, and after adjusting for the generic "independent" vote being somewhat overstated, Labor and the Jacqui Lambie Network are up slightly at the expense of the Liberals.  However the Lambie Network has imploded in the parliament and the most recent stated intention of Jacqui Lambie was to re-endorse only her sole remaining MP, Andrew Jenner.  Thus, it is not clear the robust polling for the JLN brand (which appeals strongly to a low-information cohort dominated by working-class blokes) actually means anything.

The leadership figures show that both Jeremy Rockliff and Dean Winter have taken a net favourability hit compared with the November poll, with Rockliff on a net rating of +10 (36-25 with the +10 being after rounding, down five points) and Winter on a net +6 (18-11 ditto, down 8).  These net numbers are still acceptable for both, but Winter still has a recognition problem especially in the north - something that is being picked up by EMRS's approach of not stating the role of the person who they are testing recognition for.  In fact, this sample has an even higher "never heard of" score for Winter (27%) than the previous 18%, which itself raised a few eyebrows.  This said, firstly it is possible some voters could have a strong opinion either way of 'the new Tasmanian Labor leader guy' without actually knowing his name, so the 27% may be an overestimate.  Also, it isn't catastrophic; the example I always quote is that 39% of NSW voters could not identify Barry O'Farrell as Premier in one poll after he had been Premier for a year and a half.  However this is consistent with a general issue of State Labor lacking profile and cut-through across the whole state that also dogged it during the 2024 campaign.  Jeremy Rockliff has also made a minor gain on preferred Premier (which favours incumbents), his lead now out to an acceptable 44-34 after shrinking to 43-37 last poll.

uComms: Labor Just 23: How Much Stock Should We Put In This?

This article is part of my 2024 Tasmanian election coverage - link to main page including links to electorate guides and effective voting advice.

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uComms (Australia Institute) Liberal 37.1 Labor 23 Green 13.7 JLN 8.5 IND 12.8 others 5.0
Seat estimate if poll was accurate Lib 14 ALP 10 Green 4 JLN 2-3 IND 4-5
Poll should be treated with caution.

Today saw the the release of the third Tasmanian campaign poll by an established and identified pollster, this one being a uComms for the left-wing Australia Institute.

From the outset I should note some usual cautions.  uComms polls by automated phone polling (formerly all robopolling, lately a mix of SMS and voice robopolling).  The poll employs very primitive weighting (age, gender and location only, with no attempt to weight by any indicator of political engagement such as education).  At the 2021 election an Australia Institute uComms poll which I disputed at the time (What's This Then?  Commissioned Poll Claims Liberals In Trouble) was hopelessly inaccurate, underestimating the Liberals by over 7% and overestimating Labor by nearly 4 and independents by nearly 5.  There was never any attempt to explain why this poll got it so wrong.  

2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is the Franklin electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Franklin (Currently 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

(Elected at last election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green)

Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel

Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

2021 Tasmanian Postcount: Franklin

 (Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)

FRANKLIN (2018 Result 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green)

ALL SEATS CALLED: 2-2-1, Jacquie Petrusma and Nic Street (Lib) re-elected, David O'Byrne (Labor) re-elected, Rosalie Woodruff (Greens) re-elected, Dean Winter (Labor) replaces Alison Standen (Labor)

There is no suspense about the count in Franklin: all the incumbents have won except that Alison Standen has lost heavily to Dean Winter and David O'Byrne in a within-party contest.  Winter's campaign was initially blocked by left unionist elements in the party and this was only overturned by federal intervention (at the behest of another union that took exception to the claim Winter wasn't Labor-y enough).  The result confirms the utter senselessness of leaving Winter off the Labor ticket for even five minutes and Labor should identify those irresponsible and ensure they don't get asked to pick the squad again.  

2021 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is the Franklin electorate guide for the 2021 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2021 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.

Franklin (Currently 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green)

Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel

Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

2018 Hobart City Council Count (With Some Coverage Of Other Councils)

The number above appears at the top of my coverage to highlight the final informal vote rate for the Hobart City Council councillor count, as a result of absurdly strict formality requirements. Launceston (7.94%) and Clarence (7.24%) are not far behind.  

This level of informal vote as a result of absurd legislation is a farce, an insult to democracy, and a threat to the legitimacy of seats being decided by a handful of votes.  The informal rate was 100 times the final seat margin in Hobart.

I call on the state government and other parties in the Lower House to immediately and publicly commit to fixing this problem.  The current government did not create this problem, but the problem should have been fixed after the last election four years ago.

Coverage follows below.

Note added Saturday night: I will be mostly offline for the coming week (Nov 4-10) so comment clearance will be slow.

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Introduction (from Tuesday)

Welcome to my live coverage thread for the Hobart City Council count, which will also have some comments on other councils when I find time to look at them.  My Hobart candidate guide and preview was here and has probably been viewed by about 20% of Hobart voters.  Updates will be added below the dotted lines; check back regularly through the week for comments.  These introductory comments will stay at the top, there are also some more detailed introductory comments at the bottom.