uComms: Tas Labor Getting Run Out Of The Stadium

 uComms Tas (state) Lib 26.8 ALP 21.8 ON 18.4 Grn 15.9 IND 15.0 SFF 1.6 Nat 0.1 others 0.5
Seat estimate Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4-5 IND 3-4

Today came the unexpected surprise of a new uComms poll of Tasmanian state voting intention commissioned by the anti-stadium group Our Place, trading for polling purposes as Macquarie Point Vision Limited.  The poll had a sample size of 1164 and was taken 26-27 August by robopoll and SMS.  Before we get too carried away with this poll I should point out that these are both methods I treat with a high degree of caution and that uComms' record in recent Tas state final polling has been erratic.  It underestimated the Liberals by 7 points in 2021 and underestimated Labor by 6 in 2024.  Nonetheless I'll unpack the voting intentions in this poll for those interested and then comment on the stadium questions.

uComms presents results in a somewhat challenging format with a headline question with undecided included as an option alongside several parties, and then a follow-up question that asks the voters who are initially undecided which option they are leaning to.  To convert the results into a format equivalent to other polls it is necessary to multiply the results of the follow-up question by the undecided rate and add them to the headline numbers.  In this case, the Nationals and Others options were not offered in the follow-up, which will have deflated them slightly and robbed the Nationals of their chance to reach the giddy heights of 0.2%.  

Tasmanian Nationals Are Lambie Chaos 2.0

This article is part of my 2025 Tasmanian state election coverage. (Link to main guide page with links to other articles here.)

I was going to write an article called "There Are Too Many Independents" but on seeing the full rollout of candidates for the state election I feel that higher duty calls.  There are too many independents this election (a record 44; some are competitive or at least entertaining but I'll be impressed if even ten get their deposits back) but that can wait.  I want to make some comments about the latest coming of the Tasmanian Nationals.

We've been here before.  In the leadup to the 2014 election there was a Tasmanian Nationals branch that was briefly part of the federal Nationals and was under the stewardship of former Labor MLC Allison Ritchie (never herself a candidate).  Initial enthusiasm for that run included Michael McCormack tweeting (above) that the appointment of Ritchie was "a coup for Christine Ferguson" (then Nationals Federal President).  Less than a month after McCormack's tweet the branch had been disowned by the federal party, who tried but were powerless to cancel the state party name registration.  The rogue branch's curious crew of candidates, including a legal dope advocate and a former Socialist Alliance member, polled a risibly tiny vote tally and the Nats name disappeared.