NELSON (2019 margin IND vs Lib 9.3%)
Slightly delayed by a three-week bump to avoid a clash with the federal election, the Tasmanian Legislative Council elections will be upon us soon enough and I'll be chipping away at guides to these alongside articles about the federal election. Recently I released my usual survey of the Council's voting patterns. Link to Pembroke is here, link to Montgomery is here but I am starting with Nelson as it is the most consequential and also as interest in the seat in 2019 was through the roof. However, at this stage we don't seem to have the Melbourne Cup field that we had for the 2019 vacancy! Nominations close on May 1. There will be live coverage of all three seats here on the night of May 24 and as required through the postcount.
The current numbers in the Council are four Liberal, three Labor, one Green and seven independents, with the independents ranging fairly evenly across the political spectrum. Labor gives up one vote on the floor and in the committee stages because it holds the Presidency, and as a result there are currently fine balances between major party and other MLCs (6-8 on the floor) and party and non-party MLCs (7-7 on the floor). The balance between the major parties could be interesting if Labor actually opposes anything, but in the last year that happened only twice, leading me to classify the party's voting pattern as "Right" for the first time ever.
This year sees a vacancy for the retirement of Leonie Hiscutt (Liberal), the first defence for Labor's Luke Edmunds, and the subject of this article, the first defence for left-wing independent Meg Webb.
