Thursday, October 14, 2021

Tasmanian COVID case tallies (transferred from sidebar)

====SUSPENDED 23 Dec 2021 - with the very rapid rise in Tas cases and insufficient official detail about case sources in recent days this page is no longer being updated.  See for what appears to be the best data available on case sources ====

Since soon after the COVID-19 pandemic commenced I have been keeping a tally in the sidebar of the sources of reported Tasmanian COVID-19 cases.  While quite a few people in psephology and other scientific fields have been magnetically attracted to COVID data I have had relatively little to do with it and told a couple of journalists who wanted to interview me about it last year to go and speak to epidemiologists instead.  At this stage I am not graphing anything either; there are plenty of graphs at Juliette O'Brien's excellent covid19data site, and David Barry has raw case totals over time.  My sources are primarily the Tasmanian government page, press conferences and media reports, but there were some cases I was never able to get to quite add to the magic total during the 2020 outbreak.

My interest has been in trying to keep a tab on the sources of publicly reported cases - overseas, interstate, cruise ships, outbreaks in the health system (introduced to it by cruise ship passenger patients) etc.  I've been running this via a feature in the sidebar but recent changes to the Blogger software have made it so tedious to update that I've decided to transfer it to a post.  I am not sure how long I will keep doing this once Tasmania's mix of skill and good fortune in escaping community spread in recent months inevitably runs out and COVID spreads here, but for the time being hopefully this tracking is still of some interest to someone out there somewhere.  A link to this page will remain in the sidebar below the Not-A-Polls.  All numbers here are unofficial and are published for reader interest only.  

Condolences to all who have lost partners, family, friends and colleagues to COVID-19 and sympathies to all affected by it, directly or indirectly or both; physically, mentally, financially or any combination thereof.


10 ex interstate
42 close contact

52 active
Total 52


1 South in quarantine ex overseas (1/12/21-10/12/21)
2 overlapping South in quarantine ex interstate (15/11/21-28/11/21)
2 overlapping South in quarantine ex interstate (one transferred from North) (2/10/21-29/10/21)
1 North in quarantine ex interstate (2-4/8/21, left state)
4 South in quarantine ex overseas (9/12/20 - 19/12/20)
1 NW in hospital ex interstate (11/08/20-1/9/20)
1 South in quarantine ex interstate (20/7-31/7/20)
12 recovered/left 
Total 12


135 North-west hospitals cluster (inc approx 82 health staff 23 patients 23 contacts 1 aged care resident 1 other worker 2 ambiguous 3 other)
42 cruise ships
33 other overseas
2 interstate
6 close contacts of imported cases (3 overseas 2 cruise ships 1 interstate)
2 Devonport apparently local late March (inc 1 Mersey Hospital staff)
1 South 6/4, no details
1 South 16/4 (transport industry links)
1 Launceston Hospital 5/5
3 unresolved (by me) data discrepancies
Recovered 211
Deaths attributed to COVID-19 13
Deaths after being cleared (other conditions) 2
Total first wave 226

Total Tas cases 290
Updated 23 Dec 21

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Not-A-Poll Reset Time: Berejiklian Quits

With Gladys Berejiklian resigning as NSW Premier to be replaced by Dominic Perrottet, the sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll has been reset.  These were the previous results:

The Not-A-Poll was started in November 2020, at which time Berejiklian had just appeared before ICAC and testified about her former relationship with Daryl Maguire.  As a result Berejiklian was the early leader but as time went on readers may have believed she would survive the crisis at least long enough for one of the federal leaders to lose the election and depart.  She was overtaken by Albanese on 15 April 2021 and he was overtaken by Morrison on 10 Aug 2021.