Welcome back to Wonk Central, the occasional series of excursions into psephological arcanity that ... well, if you got past those big words and have some sort of head for maths, you'll probably be right at home here. This one's not as hard as some, probably just a Wonk Factor 4/5.
Today saw the release of extensive results of a special Newspoll on various national security issues. These included:
* support for ground troops to fight the so-called Islamic so-called State
* how many Syrian refugees Australia should be taking
* whether priority should be given to Christian refugees over others
* the chance the so-called Islamic so-called State will carry out a large scale terror attack in Australia
* whether the Muslim community in Australia is doing enough to condemn attacks like the Paris attacks
* whether Muslims living in Australia are doing enough to integrate into something Newspoll calls "the Australian community"
I will comment on the results in the next Poll Roundup. What I want to discuss now is whether or not we can use the results to guess at the voting intentions in this Newspoll. My working will likely assist anyone seeking to do so in similar cases in the future.
Showing posts with label refugees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refugees. Show all posts
Monday, November 23, 2015
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Poll Roundup: The Dog Ate My Recovery
2PP Aggregate: 53.4 to ALP (+0.3 since last week)
ALP would easily win election "held now"
It's over a month now since Bronwyn Bishop resigned as Speaker, more or less ending an entitlements scandal that had provoked a polling blowout of about one and a half points against the Abbott Government. It might have been expected (and indeed I rather did expect) that this was a blip and that once all the shouting had died down the government's polling would improve. However this week's results show that it hasn't improved at all, and again we see bad, but not quite panic-station, results for the government continue to hang around. Ahead of the Canning by-election (which is covered on a separate rolling thread) this is not what the government wants to see.
A significant debacle for the government in the last fortnight was the Border Force press release which stated that Border Force intended to stop people more or less randomly for visa checks. This was apparently never the actual intention but social media outcry resulted in the intended joint operation with Victoria Police having to be cancelled. This epic stuffup can't have helped the government's latest attempts to repair its image.
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ALP would easily win election "held now"
It's over a month now since Bronwyn Bishop resigned as Speaker, more or less ending an entitlements scandal that had provoked a polling blowout of about one and a half points against the Abbott Government. It might have been expected (and indeed I rather did expect) that this was a blip and that once all the shouting had died down the government's polling would improve. However this week's results show that it hasn't improved at all, and again we see bad, but not quite panic-station, results for the government continue to hang around. Ahead of the Canning by-election (which is covered on a separate rolling thread) this is not what the government wants to see.
A significant debacle for the government in the last fortnight was the Border Force press release which stated that Border Force intended to stop people more or less randomly for visa checks. This was apparently never the actual intention but social media outcry resulted in the intended joint operation with Victoria Police having to be cancelled. This epic stuffup can't have helped the government's latest attempts to repair its image.
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