Prahran and Werribee By-Elections Live

Prahran (Grn vs Lib 12.0%)
Vacancy for resignation of Sam Hibbins (Grn/IND)

Liberal gain from Green/IND (called Sunday 4:20 pm)

Werribee (ALP vs Lib 10.9%)
Vacancy for resignation of Tim Pallas (ALP)
Labor retain (called Thursday 3:30 pm)

----

Distributions: Both preference distributions have been posted and I don't know if there is any scope for further changes so for now it looks like the Liberals have won the primary vote count in Prahran by one vote.  In Prahran, the lead changed a few times through the distribution, and going into the Lupton exclusion the Greens were still ahead. However, that exclusion flowed 63.7% to Liberal.  I have heard from scrutineers that the flow from 1 Lupton votes was 68-32.  

In Werribee, the Liberals gained slightly from the final (Paul Hopper) transfer; here I have heard that the split off the 1 Hopper votes was 60-40 to them but the preferences that had pooled with Hopper from other sources favoured Labor.  What is notable here is that far from the minor candidates preferences pooling with Hopper, he actually went backwards compared to both majors, and got only 27.8% of the preferences at the 3CP stage.  This means that while there was a very large vote for non-majors in Werribee, a lot of those voters were not consistently opposed to the major parties; they just liked someone else more.  The term "double haters" has been thrown around in reference to this result but the distribution doesn't suggest that's what the voters are.  

Friday 6:20 ALP lead in Werribee out to 639, there will be slight changes but I expect it to finish well within 100 of that.  

Friday: Labor has very reasonably claimed victory in Werribee but the result is not official until after the adding of final votes and the distribution of preferences, which I'd expect to happen sometime next week.  In Prahran, it's interesting to note the Liberal primary vote lead over the Greens has come down to seven votes; although the Liberals will win the seat thanks to their superior preference flow, it is still possible they will do so from second on primaries (that would be embarrassing for right-wingers who oppose preferential voting).  

Tony Lupton has been claiming credit for the result in The Australian and suggesting Labor should put the Greens last everywhere.  However not only did his vote not look very Labory in booth terms, but his how to vote card which was orange and said "It's Time For An Independent" was hardly pitched at Labor voters beyond the endorsement from Steve Bracks.  

Thursday 3:30: Recheck primaries have come through without any major changes to Labor's position; this plus the increased lead after postals counted so far makes it clear Labor has retained the seat.   (Update: I understand there are now only provisionals and the last postals to come.)

Thursday 3pm: A report that Labor has done well on primary votes on the late postals and are poised to pull further ahead on 2PP.  (Update: report from Labor that the lead is now 591.)

Thursday midday: Counting of about 2000 Werribee postals has been brought forward to today.  This plus rechecking of booths may put the seat beyond doubt.  

Tuesday: Rechecking in Prahran has not resulted in any significant changes.  Still waiting for rechecked primaries in Werribee.  

Sunday: Where The Lupton Vote Really Came From!

There has been some damage-control spinning from the Greens of a result that is simply very bad.  Among this has been a tweet by leader Ellen Sandell claiming that "Obviously it’s not the result we would have liked but with the unofficial Labor candidate sending their preferences to the Liberals, those Labor preferences have handed the seat to the Liberals this time."  Firstly, Lupton was not a typical unofficial "independent Labor" type candidate but one who'd got involved in some culture war issues and criticised the party.  Secondly, candidates don't send preferences anywhere (it's the lower house) and I'd be surprised if the follow rate for the Lupton card was that high anyway.  Thirdly the evidence is that where Lupton got his votes from tended not to be the ALP support base.  In booth terms, while his vote was pretty flat everywhere, he did worst in the good Labor booths from 2022 and better in the good Liberal booths from 2022 - even though the former had more votes up for grabs care of Labor not running!  Neither result is statistically significant but they do very strongly contradict the idea that the Lupton vote was a large chunk of the former Labor vote - it looks more like an independent conservative sort of thing:

Prahran and Werribee By-Elections

In a nice appertiser for the federal election year, Victoria has a couple of unusually interesting state by-elections coming up on February 8, which I intend to cover on the night.  One is especially interesting because it's a more or less stock-standard test for the theory that the a government is in trouble, the other because of its uniqueness.  This is a preview post for these by-elections where I look at some factors that might affect the results; I will add notes on polling if I see any.  

Prahran (Green vs Lib 12.0%, 3CP Green vs ALP 5.8%)
ALP not contesting
Vacancy for: resignation of Sam Hibbins (Grn/IND) following personal scandal

Prahran is a unique seat to begin with, and this by-election is even more of an oddity because of the decision of the Allan Labor government to not turn the rock over.  Labor cited the fact that they had not won the seat since 2006 and didn't need it as pretexts for not having a go.  Winning would have been challenging because the standard anti-government by-election factor would have made it hard for them to get over the Greens even with the loss of Hibbins' personal vote.  On the other hand with the government currently not polling well there could have been fear of a really bad result (such as being jumped by some indie and finishing fourth).  If Labor could have won the by-election they may well have been in a better position to hold off the Greens at the next general election, but unlikely to happen and not to be.

Victorian Lower House 2022: Labor Well On Track Despite Federal Drag

Yesterday saw the release of the first Newspoll for Victorian state voting intention this year.  This is the first new public polling voting intention data for the state for over four months with the exception of a couple of Morgan SMS offerings, on which I can't place a lot of weight.  The release of a Newspoll with about three months til the election is a good time to launch my coverage of the Victorian lower house election, having not covered the Victorian lower house contest since the last Newspoll late last year.

The new Newspoll estimates Labor leading 56-44 (an effective 1.6% swing from the last election after accounting for the Liberals not contesting Richmond in 2018) off primary votes of Labor 41 Coalition 36 Greens 13 others 10.  These results are not wildly different to the 2018 election, with Labor down 1.9%, the Greens up 2.3% and the Coalition up negligibly.  For all the hype from some on the right about how hated he supposedly is, Daniel Andrews polls a rather strong +13 net rating (54-41) with the artist now known as Matt Guy on a not so flashy -17 (32-49).  A modest Better Premier lead for Andrews given the other scores and the way preferred leader scores skew to incumbents (51-34) does provide some support for the idea that Andrews is a polarising figure and the minority who dislike him tend to do so strongly.

Seat Model

What might this poll look like if realised on election day?  By uniform swing Labor would drop four of its 58 notional seats to the Liberals and Northcote (just) to the Greens, coming out just two down on its 2018 election result, but the uniform swing model is if anything potentially unkind to Labor's chances vs the Liberals in the 2PP seats.  There are two major reasons for this: firstly, personal vote effects from the 2018 massacre will make it hard for the Liberals to pick off Labor marginals, and secondly the Liberals have a lot of ultramarginals that are at risk from random variation unless they can get a more substantial swing.  They have nine seats on 1.5% or less (including occupied notional Labor seats) to Labor's four.  

2018 Victorian Postcount: Greens Vs Labor (Prahran, Brunswick, Melbourne)

Link to main postcount thread including state summary

This thread covers late counting in seats being contested between the Greens and Labor.  The Greens went into the election holding Melbourne, Northcote (which they won from Labor in a mid-term by-election) and Prahran (which they won in a ridiculously close three-cornered contest in 2014) and hoped to pick up Brunswick (ALP vacancy) and Richmond (where there is perennial opposition to their candidate Kathleen Maltzahn from sections of the left on account of her support for the Nordic model of criminalising paying for sex).

The Liberals tried to stoke the pot in Richmond by not running a candidate at all, the strategic point of which remains elusive.  Former Prime Minister Paul Keating waded in by accusing the Liberals of piking on the contest to try to dislodge Planning Minister Richard Wynne in order to assist Liberal-linked property developers, while Maltzahn issues were another distraction for the Greens in a campaign full of them.  In the end Wynne has won Richmond with a commanding swing in his favour, and Labor has also comfortably recaptured Northcote.

2018 Victorian State Election Intro

It's very close to the 2018 Victorian state election for me not to have written a thing yet about it!  Largely this has been because my analysis model needs polling to work, and (in common with other recent state elections) there's hardly been any of it.  Anyway, this is an opening offering on some general issues in trying to forecast this election

Let's start with the important bit.  If voting in the Legislative Council (upper house) in Victoria, vote below the line for candidates, not above the line for parties.  You only have to choose five candidates for a valid vote, though you will make your vote a lot more powerful if you number a lot more.  If you vote above the line, your vote will be at the mercy of your party's decisions about where to send your preferences, and they may well choose to send it to a party who you'd be totally opposed to.  Unfortunately, Victoria is one of the two remaining states that has not got rid of the Group Ticket voting system.  Keep control of your own vote and say no to preference-harvesting which can lead to unknown parties electing unaccountable candidates off tiny percentages of the vote.

Victoria: Final Results, Poll Performance And 2PP Post-Election Pendulum

With results well and truly finalised here's a final wrap-up of various matters from the Victorian election.  This article includes a 2PP pendulum.  I've decided to publish one as a complement to Antony's 2PP pendulum here and I've done so for a reason.  In coverage of the Queensland election it's been common to see estimates of seat gains that are read off non-2PP pendulums, without considering who the seat contests are between.  I can't stop people wrongly concluding that a smallish swing to the Liberals will win them Richmond and Brunswick, but at least it won't be my fault.

I already covered a number of big-picture issues about the Victorian result in my day-after wrap.  This article covers all those aspects that depend on the final results.

Final vote share results

The final primaries for the Lower House were Coalition 41.99%, Labor 38.10, Green 11.48, Others 8.43.  By 2013 election preferences, this would have been a 2PP result of only about 50.7% to Labor, but the 2PP result ended up being 52%. (Officially, 51.99% - that 0.01 will matter a lot to some of those who betted on the 2PP range).

Many pollsters (including the final Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy) got the 2PP more or less spot on (52) by last-election preferences in their final poll.  However as with the 2013 federal election this was a case of errors cancelling out: they had the Coalition primary too low but the preference flow to Labor strengthened markedly.  In all Labor went from getting about 64% of all third-party preferences to about 69.5%. (Ipsos respondents said they would gave Labor about 75%).

Victorian Election Postcount: Prahran

 

(Correct prediction posted to tallyroom.com.au . Notice date.)

=======================================================================

UNDECIDED SEAT: Prahran (Lib, 4.7%) 
SUMMARY: Contest between Clem Newton-Brown (Lib) and either Neil Pharaoh (ALP) or Sam Hibbins (Green)
RESULT:  Hibbins (Green) wins seat - awaiting formal declaration

This article followed the post-count in the undecided seat of Prahran, won by the Greens (subject to official confirmation) on preferences from third on primaries after eleven days of counting, including a recount.

The original (after reworking) article appears at the bottom of the post with updates scrolling to the top.  However, there was a surprise in the prepoll count - Labor did much better than projected on within electorate prepolls, which I'm told they targeted heavily - so much of the original modelling for questions 1 and 2 soon became irrelevant.  The modelling for question 3 turned out to be slightly pessimistic for the Greens compared to the reality.

The results of the three key questions, after recounting, are being reported unofficially as:

1. Does Pharaoh stay ahead of Hibbins?  Hibbins knocked out Pharaoh by 31 votes.

2. If the final count is Newton-Brown vs Pharaoh, who wins? Newton-Brown led by 25 based on the quick throw.  This margin remains to be confirmed (and is presently irrelevant.)

3. If the final count is Newton-Brown vs Hibbins, who wins?  Hibbins has won by 277 votes thus apparently winning the seat.

Assuming these results are now officially confirmed, Hibbins has won the seat for now.  It is possible that there will be a court challenge, but even if there is one Hibbins will be able to sit in parliament until such time as a court might decide otherwise.

The result is a major success for the Greens, who have unseated a Liberal in a single-seat electorate for the first time in any Australian state or federally, who have won both lower house seats they targeted, and who will hold more than one seat in an Australian parliament elected under a single-seat system for the first time.  Indeed, they have only previously won four seats in single-seat elections (one of them twice) and two of those wins were in by-elections.