Farrer (Lib vs IND 6.2%, Lib vs ALP 12.9%)
Raissa Butkowski (Lib) vs Michelle Milthorpe (IND), David Farley (ON) and others
Cause of by-election resignation of Sussan Ley (Lib)
Cause of by-election resignation of Sussan Ley (Lib)
CALLED (7:46 pm) Farley (One Nation) gain from Liberal
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Monday 11th: We don't quite know the flows by party yet but what we can track is the proportion of Coalition voters whose votes would need to be switched by a different HTV recommendation for the Coalition parties' decision to preference One Nation to have decided the seat. Currently that number runs at 33.6% (this is Liberal and National combined). As noted below, while normally it's quite feasible that an HTV decision would carry that much weight, in this case I think probably not.
Although David Farley has obviously won Farrer very easily the mathematical proof that he has done so will require a distribution of preferences meaning he's a fortnight or so from taking his seat. See here.
