Welcome to the sixth annual Ehrlich Awards for Wrong Predictions. I have to say from the outset, what a right bunch of wallies we have lined up this year for your amusement. Around the start of each year here I obtain and provide cheap gratification by outing the most amusingly, instructively or staggeringly foolish calls that I observe in or relating to the previous twelve months, in any field of interest to this site. The Ehrlichs are named for Paul Ehrlich, who not only lightened his bank balance when losing his famous bet with Julian Simon, but also lightened his credibility by making poor excuses for his defeat. For the groundrules see the first edition and for previous years click the Ehrlich Awards tab. A fairly common theme this year involves statements that can be taken literally as simply false claims of fact, but that also imply certain predictions about what will or won't happen down the track (in an election post-count for example).
Showing posts with label Newman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Newman. Show all posts
Monday, January 1, 2018
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Queensland: Final Results And Poll Accuracy
The final results of the Queensland election are out. Three years after being reduced to something that could fit in a Tarago, the ALP has won office in minority by what may just be a single seat. (Katter's Australian Party spent so long milking press cover over their agonising decision on who to support that in the end government was formed without waiting for their decision.) In one amazing echo, Peter Wellington gives Labor the numbers exactly as he did for a few months seventeen years ago. In another, Antony Green estimates the 2PP at 50.9 to Labor, so virtually the same as 2009. It is much as if 2012 just never happened.
There are two competing baseline 2PPs for the 2012 election, one of 62.8% to LNP and one of 63.1% to LNP, mainly depending on how you treat Gladstone. On the latter the swing comes out at about 14%, on the former slightly less. There may be slight revisions to the 2PP estimate for this election too, but in any case the swing was not much short of 14%, if at all.
In fact, the LNP were a trifle lucky to get as close to hanging on in seat terms as they did. If the numbers are plugged into the ABC calculator (and crossbench defector/retiree seats assigned as they fell), it suggests 48-38-3 to Labor. My own seat model, taking personal vote effects and probabilities into account, suggests 45-41-3 to Labor for that 2PP. The LNP managed one more mainly because they had more very narrow seat wins.
There are two competing baseline 2PPs for the 2012 election, one of 62.8% to LNP and one of 63.1% to LNP, mainly depending on how you treat Gladstone. On the latter the swing comes out at about 14%, on the former slightly less. There may be slight revisions to the 2PP estimate for this election too, but in any case the swing was not much short of 14%, if at all.
In fact, the LNP were a trifle lucky to get as close to hanging on in seat terms as they did. If the numbers are plugged into the ABC calculator (and crossbench defector/retiree seats assigned as they fell), it suggests 48-38-3 to Labor. My own seat model, taking personal vote effects and probabilities into account, suggests 45-41-3 to Labor for that 2PP. The LNP managed one more mainly because they had more very narrow seat wins.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Queensland: Election Day Comments
Greetings from Corinna! I don't have much time or much internet but it looks like I will be online tonight, but without access to any TV coverage.
All three polls overnight (ReachTEL, Newspoll and Galaxy) came out with a 52:48 2PP to the LNP so any polling aggregator is likely to have the LNP at something around that. Mine has finished on 52.1% off primaries of 41.4% LNP, 37.1% ALP, 6.9% Green, 4.5% PUP, 9.7% Other. The important thing is not that 2PP figure but how you model it, and my projected seat tally has barely moved since the first polls after the campaign started showed slight LNP leads. Out of the 82 major-party-held seats it expects the government to win the 2PP contest in about 48 and Labor in about 34. Considering the crossbench seats Labor have good chances of two gains, while the LNP have probably as much risk as potential for gain. (They might pick up Condamine and perhaps Gaven but are likely to lose Maryborough and at risk in a few others). So I'm expecting something about 48 LNP, 36 Labor and five others.
All three polls overnight (ReachTEL, Newspoll and Galaxy) came out with a 52:48 2PP to the LNP so any polling aggregator is likely to have the LNP at something around that. Mine has finished on 52.1% off primaries of 41.4% LNP, 37.1% ALP, 6.9% Green, 4.5% PUP, 9.7% Other. The important thing is not that 2PP figure but how you model it, and my projected seat tally has barely moved since the first polls after the campaign started showed slight LNP leads. Out of the 82 major-party-held seats it expects the government to win the 2PP contest in about 48 and Labor in about 34. Considering the crossbench seats Labor have good chances of two gains, while the LNP have probably as much risk as potential for gain. (They might pick up Condamine and perhaps Gaven but are likely to lose Maryborough and at risk in a few others). So I'm expecting something about 48 LNP, 36 Labor and five others.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Queensland: Ashgrove, Redcliffe, And Other Snippets
This post just rounds up a number of issues in modelling the Queensland election. There have been no fresh state polls since my previous post and I still think it's most likely the LNP will retain office with a narrow to moderate (but greatly reduced) majority. I could have added these as updates to the roundup from the weekend or saved them for next time, but thought they'd work quite well as an article by themselves to stop the last one or the next one being too long.
ReachTEL Poll Of Ashgrove
(Scroll down for Newspoll update Jan 17)
The first seat poll of the campaign has been released and there are no prizes for guessing which seat it covers. A ReachTEL with a slightly larger sample size than last week's state Newspoll and Galaxy offers the candidates in ballot order and finds Campbell Newman effectively up 2.4 points in just over a month (after redistributing "undecided" from last time), and Kate Jones effectively down one point, with the other significant change being the disappearance of the Palmer United Party's three points (they're not running). The 2PP is 53:47 to Jones and voters are almost exactly split as to who they think will win the seat.
This apparent improvement for Newman isn't a massive surprise given the apparent statewide improvement in LNP polling. 47% 2PP is a slightly better figure than would be expected at this stage, but not by enough to rule out statistical noise. However, it's also possible that Newman is starting to punch above his weight (based on the expected swing statewide) or that this reflects a shift in state voting intention since last week's polls were taken.
ReachTEL Poll Of Ashgrove
(Scroll down for Newspoll update Jan 17)
The first seat poll of the campaign has been released and there are no prizes for guessing which seat it covers. A ReachTEL with a slightly larger sample size than last week's state Newspoll and Galaxy offers the candidates in ballot order and finds Campbell Newman effectively up 2.4 points in just over a month (after redistributing "undecided" from last time), and Kate Jones effectively down one point, with the other significant change being the disappearance of the Palmer United Party's three points (they're not running). The 2PP is 53:47 to Jones and voters are almost exactly split as to who they think will win the seat.
This apparent improvement for Newman isn't a massive surprise given the apparent statewide improvement in LNP polling. 47% 2PP is a slightly better figure than would be expected at this stage, but not by enough to rule out statistical noise. However, it's also possible that Newman is starting to punch above his weight (based on the expected swing statewide) or that this reflects a shift in state voting intention since last week's polls were taken.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Queensland: LNP Leads After Week One
Queensland Aggregate: LNP 41.4 ALP 37.9 Green 7 PUP 4.6 Other 9
2PP based on last-election preferences: 51.8% to LNP
Election held now would most likely result in LNP majority government (approx 47-37-5)
Polling in late 2014 showed the Liberal National Party government in Queensland in a precarious if probably still just winning position (Beautiful One Day, Lineball The Next). Following the calling of a snap election for January 31, however, the three polls so far released in the first week are a little less disastrous and suggest that an election held right now would likely result in a narrow LNP majority.
The ReachTEL poll was discussed in the previous article and has been followed by:
* A Galaxy (sample size 800, 7-8 Jan) with a 2PP of 52-48 to the LNP off primaries of 41-38 with 8 for the Greens, a remarkably feeble 3 for Palmer United and 10 for Others including KAP.
* A Newspoll (sample size 801, 6-8 Jan) with a 2PP of 53-47 to the LNP off primaries of 42-37 with 7 for the Greens, 1 for KAP and 13 for Others including PUP.
Note that these polls were taken entirely before the announcement that Labor deputy leader Tim Mulherin would retire.
2PP based on last-election preferences: 51.8% to LNP
Election held now would most likely result in LNP majority government (approx 47-37-5)
Polling in late 2014 showed the Liberal National Party government in Queensland in a precarious if probably still just winning position (Beautiful One Day, Lineball The Next). Following the calling of a snap election for January 31, however, the three polls so far released in the first week are a little less disastrous and suggest that an election held right now would likely result in a narrow LNP majority.
The ReachTEL poll was discussed in the previous article and has been followed by:
* A Galaxy (sample size 800, 7-8 Jan) with a 2PP of 52-48 to the LNP off primaries of 41-38 with 8 for the Greens, a remarkably feeble 3 for Palmer United and 10 for Others including KAP.
* A Newspoll (sample size 801, 6-8 Jan) with a 2PP of 53-47 to the LNP off primaries of 42-37 with 7 for the Greens, 1 for KAP and 13 for Others including PUP.
Note that these polls were taken entirely before the announcement that Labor deputy leader Tim Mulherin would retire.
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Queensland: Beautiful One Day, Lineball The Next
Estimated Queensland state 2PP based on late 2014 polling and first 2015 poll: 50.2-49.8 to LNP (revised from 50.1 to ALP)
LNP would probably retain office in an election "held now", but would be at substantial risk of loss of majority
(This is not a prediction of the election result yet, as voting intentions may change)
With the Victorian election and its unsurprising result out of the way, it is time to look north to a much murkier contest. The Queensland state election could in theory be held as late as June, but the government's three-year anniversary comes up in late March, and there are persistent rumours that it will be called slightly earlier, for late February or early March. I previously covered Queensland state polling in four articles last year:
Is Campbell Newman Actually In Trouble? (late April through June)
Careful With That Queensland Pendulum, Eugene (July)
Recent Queensland and Victorian Polling (August)
Recent Polling In Four States (October)
The story for much of 2014 was pretty similar. The Newman government held a small to modest aggregated 2PP lead and was facing a swing that would cost it dozens of seats but not necessarily government. Particular polls were sometimes interpreted as showing that the government would actually lose, but either those polls were outliers or the interpretation was dodgy. The problem always was that one of the doomed seats, all else being equal, was Premier Campbell Newman's own seat of Ashgrove, and all the polling in Ashgrove suggested that all else was in fact equal and that if the election was even remotely close then the Premier's seat would be toast. Furthermore, Newman at various stages through the year was mildly to distinctly unpopular both in his own seat and in Queensland as a whole.
LNP would probably retain office in an election "held now", but would be at substantial risk of loss of majority
(This is not a prediction of the election result yet, as voting intentions may change)
With the Victorian election and its unsurprising result out of the way, it is time to look north to a much murkier contest. The Queensland state election could in theory be held as late as June, but the government's three-year anniversary comes up in late March, and there are persistent rumours that it will be called slightly earlier, for late February or early March. I previously covered Queensland state polling in four articles last year:
Is Campbell Newman Actually In Trouble? (late April through June)
Careful With That Queensland Pendulum, Eugene (July)
Recent Queensland and Victorian Polling (August)
Recent Polling In Four States (October)
The story for much of 2014 was pretty similar. The Newman government held a small to modest aggregated 2PP lead and was facing a swing that would cost it dozens of seats but not necessarily government. Particular polls were sometimes interpreted as showing that the government would actually lose, but either those polls were outliers or the interpretation was dodgy. The problem always was that one of the doomed seats, all else being equal, was Premier Campbell Newman's own seat of Ashgrove, and all the polling in Ashgrove suggested that all else was in fact equal and that if the election was even remotely close then the Premier's seat would be toast. Furthermore, Newman at various stages through the year was mildly to distinctly unpopular both in his own seat and in Queensland as a whole.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Recent Polling In Four States
NOTE re Vic polling (28 Oct): Three new Vic polls have appeared in recent days: a 52-48 to Labor from Galaxy, 53-47 from ReachTEL, 52.5-47.5 (with a much too high Green vote) from Morgan SMS. However Fairfax Ipsos and apparently Newspoll are in the field so we may as well collect the full set. I am busy with Hobart Council for a few days but will have detailed coverage of Victoria shortly.
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This could be a dull week in federal polling, but fortunately new state polling has been released in four states. The last article on polling from states other than Tasmania was Recent Victorian and Queensland Polling, over a month ago. This one will cover what has come out since, and updates will be added for anything else that surfaces in the next few weeks. Beyond that we will be getting seriously close to the Victorian election and polls should become more common.
Immediately after this article was written a Morgan poll including data from all states was released. Comments about it appear at the bottom.
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This could be a dull week in federal polling, but fortunately new state polling has been released in four states. The last article on polling from states other than Tasmania was Recent Victorian and Queensland Polling, over a month ago. This one will cover what has come out since, and updates will be added for anything else that surfaces in the next few weeks. Beyond that we will be getting seriously close to the Victorian election and polls should become more common.
Immediately after this article was written a Morgan poll including data from all states was released. Comments about it appear at the bottom.
Friday, August 22, 2014
Recent Victorian and Queensland Polling
This week is officially a "boring week" in federal polling so far, with only Essential appearing to date. Essential moved back to Labor by one point to 52:48, but that was from a Coalition-friendly excursion that no other pollster had been replicating, and so there is no net move on my aggregate, which stays at 52.3. However, this will reset to 52.1 if nothing happens before midnight tonight, since the probably unrepresentative result of the Newspoll before last will fall out of the system. If there is nothing else today then the aggregate will briefly be based on just three current polls. So much for too much polling! At this stage, the touted Fairfax replacement for Nielsen has yet to surface.
The coming federal polling will be of interest to see whether Bill Shorten's clearing by Victoria Police of a decades-old rape claim has any impact on perceptions of Shorten as a leader; indeed, it will be the first time for quite a while that Shorten's ratings have been of much interest or driven by anything. I don't think we'll know the answer right away. There may well be sympathy for him in the short term, and then it depends on whether the whole story dies off or branches out in new directions. More on that next week.
The coming federal polling will be of interest to see whether Bill Shorten's clearing by Victoria Police of a decades-old rape claim has any impact on perceptions of Shorten as a leader; indeed, it will be the first time for quite a while that Shorten's ratings have been of much interest or driven by anything. I don't think we'll know the answer right away. There may well be sympathy for him in the short term, and then it depends on whether the whole story dies off or branches out in new directions. More on that next week.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Queensland Polling: Careful With That Pendulum, Eugene
ReachTEL (Queensland): 51:49 to LNP (LNP 38.7 ALP 34.4 Greens 6.1 PUP 15.4 Other 5.4)
Interpretation based on this poll "if election held now": LNP would probably win; majority status touch and go.
Widespread claim that poll implies c. 40 seat losses and defeat for LNP is wrong.
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I'm currently conducting a poll on the sidebar on whether readers want more shorter federal polling articles instead of longer ones with updates tacked onto the end. The results will also be used to inform how I cover state polls for states other than Tasmania. This piece (not that it's that short) is a bit of a trial run for the more-but-shorter option and will not be endlessly updated. One of my main concerns about the shorter option has been how to keep the titles snappy, rather than having an endless procession of pieces called "Poll Roundup Week 37" or "Essential: 51:49 For The Sixth Week In A Row While The Universe Burns". Anyway, I hope that the title for this one passes muster, with apologies to early Pink Floyd and to all readers whose name is actually Eugene.
Interpretation based on this poll "if election held now": LNP would probably win; majority status touch and go.
Widespread claim that poll implies c. 40 seat losses and defeat for LNP is wrong.
=====================================================================
I'm currently conducting a poll on the sidebar on whether readers want more shorter federal polling articles instead of longer ones with updates tacked onto the end. The results will also be used to inform how I cover state polls for states other than Tasmania. This piece (not that it's that short) is a bit of a trial run for the more-but-shorter option and will not be endlessly updated. One of my main concerns about the shorter option has been how to keep the titles snappy, rather than having an endless procession of pieces called "Poll Roundup Week 37" or "Essential: 51:49 For The Sixth Week In A Row While The Universe Burns". Anyway, I hope that the title for this one passes muster, with apologies to early Pink Floyd and to all readers whose name is actually Eugene.
For an extreme example of how I've approached state polls up til now, see my previous Queensland article Is Campbell Newman Actually In Trouble?, which started in April and ran through to the end of June. The comments on the recent quarterly Newspoll aggregate (51-49 to Labor) bear repeating: while the result was more generous to Labor than everything else about in recent months, it did put a dampener on weak signs that the LNP were recovering from the low-50s 2PPs they were getting in previous months. The poll also showed Campbell Newman at a new personal low: a -24 Newspoll netsat, giving him the worst result for any Queensland Premier bar Bjelke-Petersen and Bligh. I noted that if Newman can win the next election he will equal Bob Carr's record for the worst netsat from which any Australian state premier in the last few decades has been re-elected. That said, given that the poll was worse for the LNP than others around the same time, it may be exaggerating Newman's plight.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Is Campbell Newman Actually In Trouble?
Updated in May and June - scroll to bottom of article.
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Life isn't easy for conservative state and territory leaders anymore. Of the five who came to power during the Rudd/Gillard years, Barry O'Farrell, Ted Baillieu and Terry Mills all failed to make it to the next election, and Colin Barnett won re-election comfortably but his polling has been on the skids (see Unpopular Premiers Have Dire Historic Fates). Now, the future of Campbell Newman, whose government must go to an election by the middle of 2015 and is likely to go to the polls a few months earlier, is also attracting speculation.
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Life isn't easy for conservative state and territory leaders anymore. Of the five who came to power during the Rudd/Gillard years, Barry O'Farrell, Ted Baillieu and Terry Mills all failed to make it to the next election, and Colin Barnett won re-election comfortably but his polling has been on the skids (see Unpopular Premiers Have Dire Historic Fates). Now, the future of Campbell Newman, whose government must go to an election by the middle of 2015 and is likely to go to the polls a few months earlier, is also attracting speculation.
Newman's position has always looked dicey because of the nature of the seat he holds, Ashgrove. Newman's electorate had been held by Labor for 26 of the previous 29 years at the time he won it, and it typically runs about six points above the state average for the ALP. So, all else being equal, the Coalition would only win this seat in years when they recorded about 56% of the two-party preferred vote statewide.
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