DUNKLEY (ALP, Vic 6.27%)
Jodie Belyea (ALP) vs Nathan Conroy (Lib) and others
By-election caused by death of Peta Murphy (ALP)
By-election caused by death of Peta Murphy (ALP)
CALLED 8:42 pm Labor retain
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Updates appear here, scrolling to the top. When counting is underway refresh every 10-15 mins for new comments.
Thursday: Labor is now very close to winning the postal count and the 2PP is now 52.71; it is likely to finish between that number and 53. The Australian published an incorrect article today referring to a 10% drop in turnout; the count does not finish until all postals that can be admitted are received 13 days after polling day. The turnout is currently 83.5% and there should be about 1% or so to come; the turnout decline will be smaller than at least 16 of the last 20 by-elections, potentially 18. Media should not publish turnout doomery articles without consulting with the AEC or someone who has a clue.
Tuesday: With vote totals unlikely to change by even 1% from here it's worth noting an outstanding performance by the uComms seat poll. I've been critical of poor results from this pollster recently (especially Tasmania 2021) but this one is remarkably good by seat poll standards especially. uComms' numbers with undecided redistributed are below with the actual current numbers in brackets:
ALP 40.1 (41.1)
Lib 39.3 (39.3)
Grn 8.2 (6.3)
LTN 1.6 (2.5)
Ind/Other 10.8 (10.8)
2PP 52 (52.6)
n=626.
