Button press imminent - results and discussion will be posted on a new thread. Thanks all for the comments - this has been the most commented thread in this site's history by a long way!
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Tasmanian Senate model
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Tasmanian Senate model
Outcome of model based on current data:
Likely outcome 5 Labor 4 Liberal 2 Green 1 Lambie
Next most likely outcome is 5-5-1-1.
Nick McKim and Richard Colbeck main contenders for final seat. McKim appears somewhat better placed on my sampling but contest is too close to call.
Significant chance of Colbeck not making final two and final contest being McKim vs McCulloch
Likely outcome 5 Labor 4 Liberal 2 Green 1 Lambie
Next most likely outcome is 5-5-1-1.
Nick McKim and Richard Colbeck main contenders for final seat. McKim appears somewhat better placed on my sampling but contest is too close to call.
Significant chance of Colbeck not making final two and final contest being McKim vs McCulloch
Outside chance of McCulloch (One Nation) win, other micro-parties don't appear competitive.
Note: updates added through count including second model run from Thursday 21 July - scroll to bottom.
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