With redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia complete, the AEC has gazetted new boundaries. Antony Green has released an estimated pendulum for the next election, now looking most likely to be held in 2022 rather than 2021. There were some slight differences between Antony's initial estimates and those of William Bowe and Ben Raue, and I expect many of these would still apply to the final version. Furthermore the AEC will release its own estimates later. But pending the AEC estimates I thought I would use Antony's estimates as a starting point for a look at the 2022 pendulum and how much it helps or harms each side based on what we know so far about candidates. This article is fairly mathsy and has been rated 3/5 on the Wonk Factor scale.
There are three questions I am most interested in here:
1. All else being equal, what national two-party preferred (2PP) vote does the Coalition need for a better than even chance of a majority?
2. All else being equal, what 2PP vote does each side need for a better than even chance of winning more seats than the other?
3. All else being equal, what 2PP vote does Labor need for a better than even chance of a majority?
