Advance Summary
1. For all the noise about preferencing strategies and preference flow changes, changes in the relative primary votes for the major parties are a much bigger factor in most recent federal election results.
2. The widespread claim that United Australia preferences caused the Coalition to win the 2019 election is false.
3. Labor is much more dependent on preferences than the Coalition and routinely wins many seats from behind.
4. No party's preferences will ever flow 100% to any other party and there is nothing anyone can do about that - whether it is Greens or Labor being excluded, some preferences will always go to the Coalition.
5. The preferences of climate-concerned independents in city seats tend to flow to Labor, although not quite as strongly as the other way around.
6. In many cases the preference flows from climate-concerned independents are irrelevant, since they will rarely be eliminated in seats that are closely contested between the majors.
7. How to vote cards mainly exist to protect against informal voting. Their impact on outcomes is minor.
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