Link to main postcount thread including state summary
This thread covers late counting in seats being contested between the Greens and Labor. The Greens went into the election holding Melbourne, Northcote (which they won from Labor in a mid-term by-election) and Prahran (which they won in a ridiculously close three-cornered contest in 2014) and hoped to pick up Brunswick (ALP vacancy) and Richmond (where there is perennial opposition to their candidate Kathleen Maltzahn from sections of the left on account of her support for the Nordic model of criminalising paying for sex).
The Liberals tried to stoke the pot in Richmond by not running a candidate at all, the strategic point of which remains elusive. Former Prime Minister Paul Keating waded in by accusing the Liberals of piking on the contest to try to dislodge Planning Minister Richard Wynne in order to assist Liberal-linked property developers, while Maltzahn issues were another distraction for the Greens in a campaign full of them. In the end Wynne has won Richmond with a commanding swing in his favour, and Labor has also comfortably recaptured Northcote.
Showing posts with label Melbourne (state seat). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Melbourne (state seat). Show all posts
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Monday, December 1, 2014
Victorian Election Postcount: Lower House
Seat Total ALP 47 L-NP 38 Green 2 Ind 1
(Green win of Prahran subject to recount)
This post (work in progress) will follow the remaining Lower House seats that are of interest. In all of them the lead is currently substantial and I do not expect any of the leads to be overturned on late counting, but maybe one or two will. The most interesting seat is the three-cornered contest in Prahran which has its own post (Postcount: Prahran).
Note that Pollbludger has some figures on number of remaining votes.
In the other seats there is probably a perception that large leads on Saturday night could be pulled down on post-poll counting given the vast number of prepolls and the tendency for postal voting to favour the conservatives. The flaw in this logic is that many of the postals are already counted so on average the postcounts should be more similar to the main game than usual. But we are already seeing some surprising differences to 2010, and also that the differences are varying by seat.
(Green win of Prahran subject to recount)
This post (work in progress) will follow the remaining Lower House seats that are of interest. In all of them the lead is currently substantial and I do not expect any of the leads to be overturned on late counting, but maybe one or two will. The most interesting seat is the three-cornered contest in Prahran which has its own post (Postcount: Prahran).
Note that Pollbludger has some figures on number of remaining votes.
In the other seats there is probably a perception that large leads on Saturday night could be pulled down on post-poll counting given the vast number of prepolls and the tendency for postal voting to favour the conservatives. The flaw in this logic is that many of the postals are already counted so on average the postcounts should be more similar to the main game than usual. But we are already seeing some surprising differences to 2010, and also that the differences are varying by seat.
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