Labor would win an election "held now"
It's about the time of year when polling shuts down for a few weeks, so as usual I will post an annual recap. If there are any late polls then I will edit the text to add them in.
In the three weeks since the last roundup, we've seen some evidence that the anti-Coalition trend in polling has softened, but not all that much. Newspoll has come in from 53:47 for Labor to 52:48, while Essential's last three readings for Labor have been 51, 52, 53. I aggregated the Newspoll at 52.1 and the Essentials at 51.3, 52 and 53.1. There was also the Ipsos discussed in the update to the previous piece. All up I have things at 52.0 to ALP, down from 52.4 three weeks ago:
Whatever is going on in February and March is likely to shape polling much more than whatever (if anything) is causing the very small comeback that we see here.
